
阿米尔·索尔坦扎德·达尔克·扬杰维奇 2026年10月28日 沙特阿拉伯、巴基斯坦和土耳其已将其最新的和平推动直接带到德黑兰。官方称,这是为了避免新的军事升级,但他们的外交接触也可以被视为对伊朗的警告。
Amir Soltanzadeh Darko Janjevic October 28, 2026 Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey have taken their latest peace push directly to Tehran. Officially, it was to avert a new military escalation, but their diplomatic outreach can also be seen as a warning to Iran.
土耳其、巴基斯坦和沙特阿拉伯的高级官员均前往德黑兰,会见马苏德·佩泽什基扬总统及其他伊朗领导人,鉴于人们越来越担心美国和以色列将在11月3日美国中期选举后对伊朗发动新的袭击,三个中东大国直接向德黑兰传递了协调一致的外交信息。
Senior officials from Turkey, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia all traveled to Tehran to meet President Masoud Pezeshkian and other Iranian leaders Amid rising fear that the US Israel are preparing to launch new attacks Iran after the US midterm election on November 3, three major Middle Eastern powers delivered a coordinated diplomatic message directly to Tehran.
巴基斯坦陆军总司令阿西姆·穆尼尔、沙特国防部长哈立德·本·萨勒曼和土耳其情报部门负责人易卜拉欣·卡林本周一均前往伊朗,会见伊朗总统马苏德·佩泽什基扬及德黑兰的高级官员。这三位特使是麦加防御公约的代表——该公约是伊斯兰堡、利雅得和安卡拉组成的军事联盟,于今年夏天正式成立。
Pakistan's army chief Asim Munir Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman and Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin all traveled to Iran to meet Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and senior officials in Tehran this Monday. The three envoys serve as representatives for the Mecca defense pact— a military alliance of Islamabad, Riyad and Ankara, which was officially set up this summer.
沙特阿拉伯表示,此行旨在开辟谈判渠道,并“防止军事升级回归”。然而,议程细节仍然稀少。伊朗冲突:新一阶段的战争是否即将来临?
Saudi Arabia said the trip aims to open negotiating channels and "prevent the return of military escalation." Details on the agenda, however, remain scarce. Iran conflict: Could a new phase of the war be imminent?
要观看此视频,以及一位被路透社引述的巴基斯坦官员表示,谈判重点在于建立地区不侵略网络,此外还涉及美伊谈判、胡塞武装对沙特阿拉伯的袭击、霍尔木兹海峡以及美国的海军封锁。
To view this video , and A senior Pakistani official cited by the Reuters news agency said the talks focused on building a regional non-aggression network, in addition to US-Iran talks, Houthi rebels ' attacks on Saudi Arabia, the Strait of Hormuz and the US naval blockade.
另一位官员表示,巴基斯坦的穆尼尔向伊朗提出了一项解决冲突的方案,该方案将为华盛顿和伊朗都提供一些东西,三个麦加国家和卡塔尔将充当调解人。该消息人士告诉路透社,美国总统唐纳德·特朗普此前已授权穆尼尔尝试外交。
Another official said Pakistan's Munir presented Iran with a solution to the conflict that would offer something both to Washington and Iran, with the three Mecca states and Qatar acting as mediators. The source told Reuters US President Donald Trump previously gave Munir the go-ahead to try diplomacy.
德黑兰将此次会谈视为成功,尽管没有官方宣布任何突破,但伊朗称赞了德黑兰会谈期间“非常积极的氛围”。
Tehran presents the meeting as a success Iran hailed the "very positive atmosphere" during the Tehran talks, even though no breakthroughs were officially announced.
“我们之间进行了非常好的讨论,”伊朗最高国家安全委员会主席穆赫森·雷扎伊对国家电视台表示。“我觉得该地区正在形成一种新的气氛。”雷扎伊认为,地区安全应由西亚国家自身建设,且不应有外部干预。
"Very good discussions took place between us," Mohsen Rezaei, head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, told state television. "I feel that a new atmosphere is emerging in the region." Rezaei argued that regional security should be built by countries in West Asia themselves and without outside intervention.
一天后,据报道雷扎伊会见了最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊。伊朗国家媒体称,哈梅内伊呼吁保护伊朗的利益,并维持德黑兰结束战争以及当前“既非战争也非和平”状态的条件。与此同时,伊朗总统马苏德·佩泽什基扬前往莫斯科参加天然气出口国论坛,在那里他会见了俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京和卡塔尔埃米尔谢赫·塔米姆·本·哈马德·阿勒萨尼,佩泽什基扬与埃米尔还讨论了战争和霍尔木兹海峡。
A day later, Rezaei reportedly met Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. Iranian state media said Khamenei called for protecting Iran's interests and maintaining Tehran's conditions for ending both the war and the current state of "neither war nor peace." Meanwhile, Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian travelled to Moscow for the Gas Exporting Countries Forum, where he met Russian President Vladimir Putin and Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, with Pezeshkian and the emir also discussing the war and the Strait of Hormuz.
德黑兰将这些及其他外交接触视为证据,证明美国无法在外交上孤立伊朗政权。土耳其和巴基斯坦是否正与沙特阿拉伯结盟?
These and other diplomatic contacts were framed by Tehran as evidence that the US is unable to diplomatically isolate the Iranian regime. Are Turkey and Pakistan closing ranks with Saudi Arabia?
然而,三国在德黑兰展示的统一战线,也可被视为对新麦加防御联盟的一次武力展示。随着沙特阿拉伯日益警惕伊朗盟友胡塞武装对沙特基础设施发动的袭击,埃及准备支持沙特对胡塞武装的战争。根据麦加协定的条款,对成员国之一的外部攻击将被视为对所有成员国的攻击。此次访问恰逢埃及议会同意向利雅得提供军事援助,并采取“一切必要措施”帮助沙特阿拉伯自卫,此外还有美国和以色列迫在眉睫的威胁。
The united front presented by the three nations in Tehran, however, can also be seen as a show of force for the new Mecca defense alliance. It comes as the Saudis grow increasingly wary of the attacks on Saudi infrastructure launched by the Iran-allied Houthi militants Egypt ready to back Saudi Arabia's war against Houthis Under the terms of the Mecca agreement, an outside attack on one of the member states is to be regarded as an attack on all of them. The visit also came on the same day as Egypt's parliament agreeing to give military help to Ryad and take "all necessary measures" to help Saudi Arabia defend itself, in addition to the looming threat of the US and Israel.
“三位高级代表同时出席传递了一个信息,即这些国家正作为一个集团行动,”伦敦政治分析家、伊朗战略研究中心前官员巴巴克·多尔贝基对德国之声表示。
"The presence of the three senior representatives at the same time sent the message that these countries are acting as a bloc," Babak Dorbeiki, a London-based political analyst and former official at Iran's Strategic Research Center, told DW.
沙特阿拉伯长期以来一直被视为该地区伊朗的死对头。沙特利用其巨额财富来对抗伊朗的影响力,现在至少在理论上,它还可以依靠巴基斯坦的核能力和土耳其的常规军事实力。
Saudi Arabia has long been regarded as Iran's archrival in region. It has used its enormous wealth to counter Iran's influence, and now it can, at least in theory, also count on Pakistan's nuclear capability, and Turkey's conventional military strength.
与此同时,多尔贝伊基认为,麦加协定主要旨在威慑而非进攻战争。拥有防御协定并不意味着其成员国想要与伊朗开战。
At the same time, Dorbeiki argued that the Mecca pact is primarily designed for deterrence rather than offensive war. And having a defense pact does not mean its members want to fight Iran.
多尔贝伊基认为,该集团传递的信息因此可能双向作用:它可以提供调解,但持续升级也可能改变这一立场。
Dorbeiki believes the message from the bloc could therefore work in two directions: it can provide mediation, but continued escalation could also alter that position.
利雅德推动“外交解决方案”沙特阿拉伯面临最紧迫的两难困境。进一步的胡塞武装袭击损害其基础设施和经济,但与伊朗的更广泛战争可能威胁到利雅德经济战略核心的投资和发展项目。
Ryad pushing for a 'diplomatic solution' Saudi Arabia faces the most immediate dilemma. Further Houthi attacks damage its infrastructure and economy but a wider war with Iran could threaten the investment and development projects at the heart of Riyadh's economic strategy.
“对沙特阿拉伯来说,当前局势和与伊朗开战都会带来严重代价,”多尔贝伊基说。“因此,其首选路径是外交解决方案。”利雅德机场遭袭后,沙特阿拉伯将何去何从?
"For Saudi Arabia, both the current situation and a war with Iran carry serious costs," Dorbeiki said. "Its preferred route is, therefore, a diplomatic solution." What now for Saudi Arabia after Riyadh airport attack?
此外,巴基斯坦花了数月时间在华盛顿和德黑兰之间进行调解,并与两国都有重要关系。直接冲突也会使伊斯兰巴德分心,无法专注于其长期涉及印度的安全关切。
Moreover, Pakistan has spent months mediating between Washington and Tehran and has important relations with both. A direct conflict would also distract Islamabad from its long-standing security concerns involving India.
土耳其是北约成员国,但多尔贝伊基表示,土耳其直接为伊朗对抗美国提供军事支持的可能性极低。安卡拉派遣情报部门负责人易卜拉欣·卡林,而非外交或国防部长,这一事实也表明其采取谨慎态度。
Turkey is a NATO member, but Dorbeiki says direct military support for Iran against the United States is highly improbable. The fact that Ankara sent intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin rather than its foreign or defense minister also suggests a cautious approach.
伊朗在准备战斗的同时推行外交伊朗总统马苏德·佩泽什基扬的媒体顾问阿里·阿斯加尔·沙菲扬也拒绝了麦加协定代表试图向德黑兰发出最后通牒的观点。
Iran pursues diplomacy while preparing for fighting Ali Asghar Shafieian, media advisor for Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian, also rejects the perspective that the Mecca pact representatives were trying to present Tehran with an ultimatum.
他告诉德国之声,这三个国家可能也希望展示其日益增长的协调,同时表明伊朗仍是地区外交的一部分。“仅凭这次会议,不能断定这是攻击前的最后通牒,”沙菲延说。
He told DW that the three countries may also have wanted to demonstrate their own growing coordination, while showing that Iran remains part of regional diplomacy. "You cannot conclude from this meeting alone that it was an ultimatum before an attack," Shafieian said.
他还指出,伊朗和美国、以色列一样,可以在保持谈判的同时,为可能出现的进一步冲突做准备。
He also noted that Iran, just like the US and Israel, could prepare for the possibility of further conflict while maintaining negotiations.
调停者还是执行者?巴基斯坦在中东的角色“正如他们利用机会加强军事和防御能力,伊朗也这样做,”他说。
Mediator or enforcer? Pakistan's role in the Middle East "Just as they use the opportunity to strengthen their military and defensive capabilities, Iran does the same," he said.
沙菲延表示,如果伊朗的政治地位以及德黑兰所称的其国家尊严得到尊重,协议仍有可能达成。
Shafieian said an agreement remains possible if Iran's political standing and what Tehran describes as its national dignity are respected.
外交博弈继续 分析家多尔贝基认为,伊朗正在采取一种惯用策略:拖长谈判,同时避免做出现实世界中的承诺。胡塞叛军是德黑兰计算中的核心。
Diplomatic game continues Analyst Dorbeiki argues that Iran is following a familiar strategy of extending negotiations while avoiding real-world commitments. The Houthi rebels are central to Tehran's calculation.
德黑兰尚未公开就胡塞武装的袭击提供利雅德所期望的那种保证。多尔贝基认为,伊朗可能试图利用对这类袭击的影响力,来换取诸如结束美国军事压力以及结束战争的更广泛步骤等让步。
Tehran has not publicly offered the kind of guarantees over Houthi attacks that Riyadh would want. Dorbeiki believes Iran could seek to trade influence over such the attacks for concessions such as an end to US military pressure and broader steps toward ending the war.
德黑兰会议唯一明显的结果是继续对话。对伊朗来说,这可能足以表明,它仍然是外交伙伴,而非敌人。
The only apparent outcome of the Tehran meeting is to keep talking. For Iran, that might be enough of a signal that it is still a diplomatic partner rather than an enemy.