华盛顿特区 —— 在 2026 年中期选举前夕，创纪录的低比例美国登记选民表示他们会重新选举自己的众议员或大多数国会议员。在最后一次中期选举前的民调中，首次有不到一半的选民（43%）认为自己的众议员值得连任，而认为大多数国会议员值得连任的比例仅为 15%。
WASHINGTON, D.C. — Ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, record-low shares of U.S. registered voters say they would reelect their own representative or most members of Congress. For the first time in a final pre-midterm reading, less than half of voters (43%) think their own representative deserves another term, while 15% say the same for most members of Congress.
在此之前，盖洛普自 1994 年以来最后一次中期选举前民调中，支持重新选举自己众议员的比例一直在 50% 到 69% 之间。同期支持重新选举大多数国会议员的比例一贯较低，在 21% 到 58% 之间波动。
Before this year, support for reelecting one's own representative had ranged from 50% to 69% in Gallup's final pre-midterm readings dating back to 1994. Support for reelecting most members of Congress has consistently been lower, ranging from 21% to 58% over the same period.
盖洛普 2026 年 10 月 1 日至 19 日的民调显示，共和党选民比民主党选民更倾向于认为自己的众议员值得连任（分别为 51% 对 45%），而独立选民持这一观点的比例更低（36%）。
Gallup’s Oct. 1-19, 2026, poll finds that Republican voters are more likely than Democratic voters to say their own representative deserves reelection (51% vs. 45%, respectively), while independent voters are less likely to hold that view (36%).
在是否大多数国会议员值得连任的问题上，党派差距更大：29% 的共和党选民、11% 的民主党选民和 9% 的独立选民认为大多数议员值得再任一届。共和党目前在联邦众议院以微弱的四席优势领先民主党。他们对连任的更大支持符合历史规律，即与多数党立场一致的选民往往对重新选举大多数议员持更有利态度。
The partisan gap is wider when it comes to Congress more broadly, with 29% of Republicans, compared with 11% of Democrats and 9% of independents, saying most members deserve another term. Republicans currently hold a narrow four-seat advantage over Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives. Their greater support for reelection is consistent with the historical tendency for voters aligned with the majority party to be more favorable toward reelecting most members.
由于该民调未确定受访者在众议院由共和党还是民主党议员代表，因此调查结果并不表明哪个党的现任议员面临选民更大的反对。中期选举前国会支持率创1974年以来新低选民不愿让国会议员连任，这正值美国人对第119届国会的支持率大幅下降至14%，这是盖洛普在1974年以来的趋势记录中，中期选举前记录的最低值。不过，目前的读数并非盖洛普完整趋势中的历史最低点，历史最低值为2013年11月记录的9%。
Because the poll does not identify whether respondents are represented by a Republican or Democrat in the House, the findings do not indicate which party's incumbents face greater opposition from voters. Pre-Midterm Congressional Approval Lowest in Trend Since 1974 Voters' reluctance to reelect members of Congress comes as Americans’ approval of the 119th Congress has declined substantially to 14%, the lowest Gallup has recorded ahead of a midterm election in its trend dating back to 1974. However, the current reading is not the lowest Gallup has measured in its complete trend, with the all-time low being 9% recorded in November 2013.
自1974年以来的13次中期选举中，总统所属政党在其中11次失去了众议院席位，失席数从5个到63个不等。唯一的例外是1998年和2002年，当时总统所属政党分别获得了5个和6个席位。这两年国会支持率相对较高，分别为44%和50%。在所有国会支持率低于30%的9次中期选举中，总统所属政党均失去了众议院席位。
The president’s party has lost House seats in 11 of the 13 midterm elections since 1974, with losses ranging from five to 63 seats. The only exceptions were 1998 and 2002, when the president’s party gained five and six seats, respectively. Congressional approval was relatively high in both years, at 44% and 50%. In all nine midterms when congressional approval was below 30%, the president’s party lost House seats.
不过，失席规模各不相同。1994年、2010年和2018年，国会支持率在21%至23%之间，总统所属政党进入选举时拥有可观的众议院多数优势，但失去了控制权，席位减少了40至63个。相比之下，2014年国会支持率为20%时，时任总统贝拉克·奥巴马领导的民主党仅失去了13个众议院席位，因为共和党已掌握众议院多数。
The size of those losses has varied, though. In 1994, 2010 and 2018, when congressional approval ranged from 21% to 23%, the president’s party entered the election with substantial House majorities but lost control as its seat total fell by 40 to 63 seats. By contrast, in 2014, when congressional approval was 20%, President Barack Obama’s Democratic Party lost just 13 House seats, as Republicans already held the House majority.
第119届国会整体支持率下降主要反映了共和党人评分的降低，共和党人的支持率从2025年2月的53%降至如今的29%。共和党人的支持率在2025年3月达到63%的峰值，随后在10月急剧下降，并于11月因美国历史上最长的政府停摆降至23%。尽管此后有所回升，但仍远低于2025年初的水平。
The overall decline in approval of the 119th Congress largely reflects lower ratings among Republicans, whose rating has dropped from 53% in February 2025 to 29% today. Republican approval peaked at 63% in March 2025 before falling sharply in October and reaching 23% in November amid the nation’s longest government shutdown. Although it has recovered somewhat since then, it remains well below its early 2025 levels.
与此同时，民主党人对国会的支持率始终维持在低位，自2025年2月以来，除一次读数外，其余均为个位数。目前仅有4%的民主党人表示支持。无党派人士的支持率与全国平均水平紧密吻合，从2025年2月的26%下降至如今的13%。
Meanwhile, Democratic approval of Congress has remained consistently low, registering in single digits in all but one reading since February 2025. Just 4% of Democrats currently approve. Independents’ approval has closely tracked the national average, declining from 26% in February 2025 to 13% today.
经济担忧与悲观情绪在中期选举前挥之不去 在国会支持率低迷的背景下，政府或领导不善被列为美国人提及最多的首要问题，有26%的受访者提及。然而，经济问题整体排名更高，38%的受访者至少提及一项经济问题，其中包括通胀或生活成本高企（17%）、总体经济状况（15%）和汽油价格（7%）。移民问题以9%位列单一议题中的第四位。
Economic Concerns and Pessimism Loom Large Ahead of Midterms Amid low congressional approval, the government or poor leadership ranks as the nation's most frequently cited problem, mentioned by 26% of Americans. However, economic concerns collectively rank higher, with 38% naming at least one economic problem, including inflation or the high cost of living (17%), the economy in general (15%) and gas prices (7%). Immigration ranks fourth among individual issues, at 9%.
美国人对美国经济的评价依然以负面为主。净经济状况评分（通过将评价为“差”的百分比（目前为48%）减去评价为“优秀”或“良好”的百分比（19%）计算得出）目前为-29分。这一评分属于盖洛普在中期选举前记录到的最负面评分之一，与2010年的-31分相似，但不及2022年的-35分（当时经历了一年的高通胀）那样负面。
Americans' assessments of the U.S. economy continue to be largely negative. The net economic conditions rating, calculated by subtracting the percentage who rate the economy as poor (currently 48%) from the percentage who rate it as excellent or good (19%), currently stands at -29 points. The current rating is among the most negative Gallup has recorded ahead of a midterm election and is similar to 2010 (-31) but less negative than 2022 (-35), following a year of high inflation.
然而，选举结果却大相径庭。2010年，奥巴马领导的民主党失去了63个众议院席位，而2022年拜登总统执政下仅失去9个席位。民主党在两次选举前均掌握众议院多数党地位，尽管其在2022年的多数优势小得多。
Yet the election outcomes differed considerably. In 2010, Obama's Democratic Party lost 63 House seats, compared with just nine under President Joe Biden in 2022. Democrats entered both elections with a House majority, although their majority was considerably smaller in 2022.
相比之下，1998年，当净经济状况评级达到中期选举前的高点+60时，比尔·克林顿总统的民主党在众议院获得了五个席位，尽管共和党保持了多数党地位。然而，积极的经济评级并不总是伴随着总统所在党派有利的选举结果。1994年、2006年和2018年，当中期选举前的净经济评级在+10至+43之间时，总统所在党派在众议院失去了30至53个席位。
By contrast, in 1998, when the net economic conditions rating reached a pre-midterm high of +60, President Bill Clinton's Democratic Party gained five House seats, although Republicans retained their majority. However, positive economic ratings have not always been accompanied by favorable election outcomes for the president's party. In 1994, 2006 and 2018, when pre-midterm net economic ratings ranged from +10 to +43, the president's party lost between 30 and 53 House seats.
目前的-29经济评级较2025年1月的-14有所下降，接近近期低点-33，后者记录于2026年5月。自唐纳德·特朗普总统开始其第二个任期以来，经济评级已沿党派界限急剧分化。共和党人的净评级从2025年1月的-49上升至如今的+32，而民主党人的净评级则从+23下降至-68，接近这一时期的最低点。无党派人士的评级始终为负面，从-14下降至-37。
The current -29 economic rating is down from -14 in January 2025 and near the recent low point of -33, recorded in May 2026. Economic ratings have shifted sharply along party lines since President Donald Trump began his second term. Republicans' net rating has risen from -49 in January 2025 to +32 today, while Democrats' has fallen from +23 to -68, near its lowest point during this period. Independents' ratings have remained negative throughout, declining from -14 to -37.
美国人对国家发展方向的满意度仍处低位 美国人对国家发展方向的满意度仍然很低，目前有23%表示满意，75%表示不满意。最新的满意度读数是盖洛普在中期选举前记录的最低值之一，类似于2010年的22%和1982年的24%。满意度最低的是2022年，为17%；最高的是1998年，为60%。
Satisfaction With Direction of U.S. Remains Low Americans' satisfaction with the way things are going in the U.S. remains low, with 23% currently satisfied and 75% dissatisfied. The latest satisfaction reading is among the lowest Gallup has recorded ahead of a midterm election, similar to the 22% in 2010 and 24% in 1982. Satisfaction was lowest in 2022, at 17%, and highest in 1998, at 60%.
考虑到总统所在党派在2010年失去了63个众议院席位，1982年失去26个，2022年失去9个，席位损失的规模并不总是与满意度的低高程度相对应。
Given that the president’s party lost 63 House seats in 2010, 26 in 1982 and nine in 2022, the size of the losses did not always correspond with how low satisfaction was.
自2026年4月以来，满意度总体徘徊在20%出头，此前曾在1月达到32%。自2025年5月以来的下降主要反映了共和党人和无党派人士满意度的下降。共和党人的满意度已降至55%，而无党派人士的满意度已降至18%。与此同时，民主党人的满意度在特朗普第二个任期内始终保持在个位数，目前为2%。
Satisfaction has generally hovered in the low 20s since April 2026, after reaching 32% in January. The decline since May 2025 largely reflects falling satisfaction among Republicans and independents. Republican satisfaction has dropped to 55%, while independents' satisfaction has fallen to 18%. Meanwhile, Democratic satisfaction has remained in the single digits throughout Trump's second term and currently stands at 2%.
底线 2026年中期选举临近，国会议员的支持率创下历史新低，国会支持率处于历史低位，经济评价负面，民众对国家发展方向普遍不满。尽管这些指标反映出严峻的全国情绪，但类似的负面公众情绪也曾伴随过结果迥异的中期选举。总统所属政党的失利程度，往往部分取决于其在选举前所持有的众议院席位数量。
Bottom Line The 2026 midterm elections are approaching amid record-low support for incumbents in Congress, historically weak congressional approval, negative economic assessments and widespread dissatisfaction with the country's direction. While these measures point to a challenging national mood, similarly negative public sentiment has accompanied widely varying midterm election outcomes. The extent of the president's party's losses has often depended in part on how many House seats it held going into the election.
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