印度最大电信运营商 Jio 的影响力随处可见于该国的特大城市。外卖骑手在红灯前等待时刷着短视频；店员把家庭视频通话挂在柜台下一整天；保安在漫长枯燥的值班时间里分享表情包、盯着外国美女的照片发呆。Jio 超低价的套餐让印度人得以尽情享用互联网提供的一切。
The impact of Jio, India’s biggest telecoms provider, can be seen everywhere in the country’s megacities. Delivery drivers scroll through short-form videos as they wait at red lights; shop assistants keep a family video chat running all day underneath the counter; security guards wile away the long, boring hours sharing memes and ogling foreign beauties. Jio’s super-cheap plans have allowed Indians to feast on all the internet has to offer.
公众投资者如今也能分一杯羹。10 月 28 日，Jio 的股份开始在印度两大证券交易所交易。此次上市使该公司估值达到 10.3 万亿卢比（约 1080 亿美元），按本币计算是有史以来规模最大的上市（按美元计算则为第二大）。首个交易日收盘时，其股价较发行价上涨 27%。
Public investors can now buy a seat at the table. On October 28th Jio’s shares began trading on India’s two main bourses. The listing, which valued the company at 10.3trn rupees ($108bn), is the largest ever in local-currency terms (and the second-biggest in dollars). Its shares closed 27% above their listing price at the end of the first day of trading.
此次上市是印度首富之一穆克什·安巴尼的一次胜利，他在 2010 年着手打造 Jio 时，鲜有印度人买得起智能手机。Jio 是安巴尼庞大的信实集团旗下为数不多的、由他而非其父亲建立的业务之一。由安巴尼弟弟阿尼尔继承的信实集团原电信业务已于 2019 年破产。
The listing is a triumph for Mukesh Ambani, one of India’s richest magnates, who began building Jio in 2010 when few Indians could afford smartphones. Jio is one of the few pieces of Reliance, Mr Ambani’s sprawling conglomerate, that he, rather than his father, can take credit for building. Reliance’s original telecoms arm, which Mr Ambani’s brother Anil inherited, went bust in 2019.
然而，对于沉迷互联网的印度人来说，这次上市可能并不是什么好消息。Jio的估值表明，价格即将大幅上涨。为了维持营收增长（最近一个财年约为15%），它需要要么找到更多客户，要么让服务变得更贵。市场渗透率已经很高：印度有13亿无线连接，每100人92个，城市地区升至每100人147个。而且，部分由于Jio的超低价服务，电信行业已从2016年的约十几家公司缩减到如今的仅四家，其中两家已名存实亡。
For internet-hooked Indians, however, the listing may not be such good news. Jio’s valuation suggests significant price rises are coming. To maintain its revenue growth—around 15% in the latest financial year—it needs to either find more customers or make its service dearer. Market penetration is already high: India has 1.3bn wireless connections, 92 for every 100 people, rising to 147 connections per 100 people in cities. And thanks in part to Jio’s super-cheap offerings, the telecoms industry has fallen from around a dozen companies in 2016 to just four today, two of which are vestigial.
Jio享有39%的市场份额；其主要竞争对手巴帝电信控制着38%。（负债沉重的沃达丰创意持有15%，国营的BSNL占7%。）这指向通过涨价实现增长。目前，Jio每用户平均收入（ARPU）约为每月214卢比（2.28美元），订户平均获得44吉字节（GB）数据。按每GB 4.9卢比计算，Jio的费用比印度行业平均水平低三分之一（仅为美国电信收费的2%）。
Jio enjoys a market share of 39%; its main rival, Bharti Airtel, controls 38%. (Vodafone Idea, which is heavily indebted, holds 15%, with state-run BSNL on 7%.) That points to growth through higher prices. At present Jio earns an average revenue per user (arpu) of around 214 rupees ($2.28) a month, for which subscribers get an average of 44 gigabytes (GB) of data. At 4.9 rupees per GB, Jio costs a third less than the industry average in India (and 2% of what American telecoms charge).
缩小这一差距将是增加收入的最快途径。当地经纪商Motilal Oswal预测，到12月Jio的价格将上涨15%。巴帝电信通常会跟随Jio上调资费，其股价在过去一个月因预期上涨了11%。
Narrowing that gap would be the fastest route to more revenue. Motilal Oswal, a local broker, predicts a 15% increase in Jio’s prices by December. Airtel, which typically follows Jio with tariff rises of its own, has seen its share price jump by 11% in the past month in anticipation.
印度的数据成瘾者会反抗吗？毕竟，Jio的崛起建立在令人吃惊的低价之上。该公司刚推出时，用户在其推介优惠中享受免费高速数据，帮助它在170天内达到了1亿订户。印度人仍然对价格敏感：当两家大型电信公司于2024年7月提价时，Jio在四个月内流失了1600万订户，许多人转投BSNL。但这并未持续。这家前垄断企业网络上的流媒体速度缓慢且覆盖不稳定，让许多客户回流。
Might India’s data addicts revolt? After all, Jio’s rise was built on being startlingly cheap. When the firm first launched, users on its introductory offer enjoyed free high-speed data, helping it reach 100m subscribers in 170 days. Indians remain price-sensitive: when the two big telecoms companies raised prices in July 2024, Jio lost 16m subscribers in four months, with many switching to BSNL. But that did not last. Sluggish streaming speeds and patchy coverage on the former monopoly’s network brought many customers back.
安巴尼或许还会尝试拓展 Jio 的其他业务，包括其固定宽带业务和流媒体服务，这两项业务目前占营收的五分之一。这位大亨承诺要为印度带来“普惠智能”，正如十年前他带来了廉价互联网一样，并可能推销各类 AI 服务。
Mr Ambani might also try to expand Jio’s other businesses, including its fixed-line offering and streaming service, which now account for a fifth of revenues. The tycoon has pledged to bring “affordable intelligence” to India, mirroring the cheap internet he brought a decade ago, and could peddle various AI services.
他还在谋划一项类似于埃隆·马斯克“星链”的卫星互联网服务，但该服务的推出因监管障碍而受阻。（马斯克近期将延误归咎于“某些寡头”。）这对 Jio 来说将是一个奇怪的搭配，因为 Jio 受益于印度的人口高密度：在该国拥挤的城市里，一个 5G 基站就能覆盖数万人，从而压低成本。卫星互联网最吸引偏远、人口稀少的地区——而在印度，这通常意味着贫穷地区。
He is also plotting a satellite-internet offering similar to Elon Musk’s Starlink, the rollout of which has been held up by regulatory hurdles. (Mr Musk recently blamed “certain oligarchs” for the delays.) It would be an odd fit for Jio, which has benefited from India’s high population density: a 5G tower in one of the country’s packed cities covers tens of thousands of people, keeping down costs. Satellite internet is most appealing in areas that are remote and sparsely populated—which in India typically means poor.
Jio 已同意与“星链”建立分销合作伙伴关系。那么，为什么它还需要自己的卫星？因为对安巴尼而言，有一位客户至关重要：一位宁愿不依赖马斯克的政府。■
Jio had agreed to a distribution partnership with Starlink. Why, then, would it need its own satellites? Because one customer matters above all for Mr Ambani: a government that would rather not depend on Mr Musk. ■