加拿大央行行长蒂夫·麦克勒姆警告称，美国的借贷处于不可持续的轨道上，他在对美国税收和支出政策做出异常直白的评估时表示，这正给全球债券收益率带来压力。
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem warned that US borrowing is on an unsustainable trajectory as he offered an unusually blunt assessment of American tax and spending policy, which is putting pressure on global bond yields.
“美国财政政策的可持续性令人担忧。经济增长强劲，但赤字巨大，”麦克勒姆在接受彭博新闻社采访时表示。“这不在可持续的轨道上。它需要回到可持续的轨道上。”麦克勒姆周三将加拿大基准利率上调至2.5%，随后被问及对美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特在债券和货币市场干预（包括买入美国国债以压低收益率）的看法。这位行长转而聚焦于美国联邦债务的大幅增加。
“Sustainability of fiscal policy in the United States is a worry. The economy is growing strongly, and deficits are large,” Macklem said in an interview with Bloomberg News. “It’s not on a sustainable track. It needs to get on a sustainable track.”Macklem, who raised the Canadian benchmark interest rate to 2.5% on Wednesday, was asked to comment on US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s interventions in bond and currency markets, including buying US Treasuries to bring down yields. The governor instead focused on the sharp increase in US federal debt.
麦克勒姆表示，加拿大的金融市场与美国紧密融合，这意味着美国长期借贷成本的部分上涨会外溢至加拿大。更高的能源价格以及对央行加息的预期也给收益率带来了上行压力。
Canada’s financial markets are closely integrated with the US, Macklem said, meaning some of the increase in longer-term borrowing costs in the US spills over. Higher energy prices and expectations for central-bank interest rate hikes have also put upward pressure on yields.
随着支出增加约6%至7.4万亿美元，美国联邦预算赤字在2026财年扩大至近2万亿美元。麦克勒姆说，美国“拥有良好的增长，税收相对较低，当然有余地”来遏制赤字。“你知道，这真的是一个政治意愿的问题。”加拿大央行行长对另一国的财政政策发表看法并不常见，但也非绝无仅有。但美国的借贷习惯似乎正在影响加拿大企业的资本成本。
The US federal budget deficit widened to nearly $2 trillion for the 2026 fiscal year as spending rose by about 6%, to $7.4 trillion. The US has “got good growth. It has relatively low taxes. It certainly has the scope” to curb deficits, Macklem said. “You know, it’s really a question of political will.”It’s unusual, but not unheard of, for the Bank of Canada governor to weigh in on another nation’s fiscal policy. But US borrowing habits appear to be having an impact on the cost of capital for Canadian businesses.
麦克勒姆表示，除了为融资人工智能投资而进行的大量企业债务发行外，全球各国政府的高水平借贷也可能正在给长期收益率带来上行压力。
Alongside heavy corporate debt issuance to finance artificial intelligence investment, high levels of government borrowing globally may be putting upward pressure on longer-term yields, Macklem said.
这可能会推高加拿大的中性利率——即既不刺激也不抑制经济增长的利率水平，他说。央行目前对中性利率的估计为 2.25% 至 3.25%。
That’s potentially pushing up Canada’s neutral rate — the place where interest rates neither stimulate nor restrict economic growth, he said. The central bank’s current estimate for the neutral rate is 2.25% to 3.25%.
麦克勒姆表示，加拿大央行目前并未修正其对中性利率的估计。该行每年 4 月重新审视这一数字一次。
Macklem said the Bank of Canada isn’t revising its estimate of the neutral rate right now. It revisits that number once a year, in April.
根据彭博汇编的估计，美国联邦赤字预计将达到该国国内生产总值的 6% 左右。加拿大的赤字预计约为 2%。总理马克·卡尼将于 11 月 5 日在预算文件中更新该国财政状况。
The US federal deficit is expected at around 6% of the country’s gross domestic product, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Canada’s is seen at about 2%. Prime Minister Mark Carney will provide an update on the country’s finances in budget documents on Nov. 5.
在周三决议随附的货币政策报告中，官员们取消了对核心通胀指标的预测。部分原因是加拿大央行采用了一个名为 Prima 的新预测模型，该模型侧重于总通胀并对其各个组成部分进行建模，而不是预测央行用于衡量潜在价格压力的统计指标。
In a monetary policy report accompanying the bank’s decision Wednesday, officials removed forecasts for core inflation measures. That’s in part because the Bank of Canada has adopted a new forecasting model, known as Prima, which focuses on total inflation and models its individual components rather than forecasting the bank’s statistical measures of underlying price pressures.
麦克勒姆说：“核心通胀曾是一种捷径，试图将整体预测与一些潜在因素区分开来。但现在我们可以将所有内容整合在一个综合框架中。”市场参与者可以从新预测中提取通胀的各个组成部分，包括食品、能源、住房和服务。
“Core was sort of a shortcut to try to separate the overall forecast from some of the underlying factors. But now we can put it all together in one integrated package,” Macklem said. Market participants can draw out various components of inflation from the new projections, including food, energy, shelter and services.
行长说：“你们要关注的是我们的目标针对总通胀。我们担心的是总通胀未来会走向何方。”
“What you want to focus on is our target is for total. We’re worried about where total is going to be in the future,” the governor said.
央行的通胀目标为 2%，但其新预测表明，不太可能在 2028 年前达到这一目标。
The bank’s target for inflation is 2%, but its new forecasts suggest it’s unlikely to meet that until 2028.
加拿大央行的分析显示，2027 年平均年通胀率大幅上修——现在预计为 3.1%。此前预计为 2%，而彭博调查的经济学家预测为 2.3%。
The Bank of Canada’s analysis showed a major upward revision to average annual inflation in 2027 — it’s now expected at 3.1%. Previously, it was projected to be 2%, while economists surveyed by Bloomberg were forecasting 2.3%.
麦克勒姆表示，这一大幅上调的主要部分源于预期较高的能源成本将“传导”至其他消费品价格。
Macklem said a big part of that jump is the expectation that higher energy costs will “pass through” to other consumer prices.
“现在的传导效应不大，”他说。“但等到明年，你会开始看到更多的传导效应。因此，非能源通胀开始上升。”
“There’s not much pass-through now,” he said. “But by the time you get into next year, you start to see more pass-through. So, non-energy inflation starts to go up.”
但麦克勒姆反驳了央行新的预测模型导致周三加息这一观点。他说，该模型有助于分析当前的冲击，因为它“确实是一个关注成本、关注成本如何在各部门间流动的模型”。麦克勒姆的行长任期将于2027年6月结束。他的任期内经历了反复的供给冲击，包括新冠疫情、美国关税和伊朗战争。在疫情期间物价飙升之际，加拿大央行和其他主要央行因反应过慢而受到批评。
But Macklem pushed back on the idea that the bank’s new forecasting model led to Wednesday’s hike. He said it’s helpful for analyzing the current shock because it’s “a model that really looks at costs and looks at how costs flow between sectors.”Macklem’s term as governor is set to end in June 2027. His tenure has been marked by repeated supply shocks, including Covid-19, US tariffs and the war in Iran. During the run-up in prices amid the pandemic, the Bank of Canada and other major central banks were criticized as being too slow to respond.
当被问及如果被要求留任是否会继续留在岗位上时，麦克勒姆拒绝置评。
Asked whether he’d stay at his post if asked to do so, Macklem declined to comment.
“我将在适当的时候就我的计划多说一些。我想我就说到这里吧。”
“I’ll have more to say in due course on my plans. I think I’ll leave it at that.”