加拿大央行（BoC）时隔三年多首次上调关键利率，并警告可能需要进一步加息，以防飙升的能源成本引发更广泛的通胀。
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has raised its key interest rate for the first time in more than three years and warned that further increases might be needed to prevent soaring energy costs from fueling broader inflation.
周三的25个基点加息将利率提至2.5%，符合市场普遍预期。央行同时将2027年的通胀预测从7月预测的2%上调至3.1%。今年经济增长预期为1%，高于7月预测的0.7%。
Wednesday’s quarter-point hike to 2.5 percent was widely expected, while the bank also ramped up its inflation forecast for 2027 to 3.1 percent from the 2 percent it had predicted in July. Growth this year is set to be 1 percent, higher than the 0.7 percent seen in July.
加拿大央行行长蒂夫·麦克勒姆（Tiff Macklem）表示：“鉴于通胀前景大幅上升，且经济显示出韧性，有必要上调政策利率，以降低能源价格居高不下外溢并演变为普遍通胀的风险。”
“With the outlook for inflation substantially higher and the economy showing resilience, an increase in the policy rate is needed to reduce the risk that elevated energy prices could spill over and become generalised inflation,” BoC governor Tiff Macklem said.
他补充道：“可能还需要进一步上调政策利率，但考虑到不确定性，我们将审慎行事。”
“There could be a need to increase the policy rate further, but given uncertainties, we will proceed carefully,” he added.
9月年通胀率达到3.2%，超出央行1%至3%的目标区间，几乎完全由更高的能源和能源相关交通成本推动。
The annual inflation rate hit 3.2 percent in September, above the bank’s 1 to 3 percent target range, and was driven almost solely by higher energy and energy-related transportation costs.
麦克勒姆表示，预计通胀将在年底达到3.5%，并在2027年大部分时间维持在3%左右，到2028年中期回落至接近2%的目标。
Macklem said inflation was expected to end the year at 3.5 percent and stay at around 3 percent for most of 2027, before returning close to the 2 percent target by the middle of 2028.
麦克勒姆说：“理事会一致认为通胀风险已增加，货币宽松的空间已减少。”这是自2023年7月以来的首次加息。
“Governing Council agreed that risks to inflation had increased and there was less scope for monetary accommodation,” Macklem said. The rate hike was the first since July 2023.
加拿大帝国商业银行资本市场（CIBC Capital Markets）高级经济学家安德鲁·格兰瑟姆（Andrew Grantham）表示：“我们预期核心通胀指标不会像央行担心的那样大幅加速，特别是如果全球能源价格略有回落，因此我们认为政策利率无需升至2.75%以上。”
“We don’t expect that core measures of inflation will accelerate as much as the bank fears, particularly if global energy prices ease a little, and as a result we don’t think that the policy rate will need to move above 2.75 percent,” said Andrew Grantham, senior economist at CIBC Capital Markets.
货币市场定价显示，预计明年1月将再降息25个基点，并预期基准利率到明年12月将升至3.25%。
Money markets are pricing in another 25 basis point rate cut in January and see the benchmark rate going up to 3.25 percent by December next year.
麦克勒姆表示，以往的经验表明，企业将在未来一年内根据成本变化提高产品和服务的价格，从而推高整体通胀。
Past experience suggests that businesses will increase the cost of products and services in line with changing costs over the next year, increasing overall inflation, Macklem said.
他说：“能源价格上涨与成本转嫁相结合，增加了通胀的持续性。”不过他补充说，仍存在一些不确定因素，例如与美国的贸易裂痕，以及中东冲突更快得到解决。
“The combination of higher energy prices and pass-through increases the persistence of inflation,” he said, although he added that there are lingering uncertainties such as the trade rift with the United States and a faster resolution of the conflict in the Middle East.
反对加息的经济学家表示，剔除波动性项目成本后的核心通胀率仍徘徊在2%左右。他们还表示，考虑到美贸易紧张局势和疲软的就业市场，加息可能会阻碍温和的经济复苏。
Economists who opposed a rise said core inflation, which strips out the cost of volatile items, is still hovering at about 2 percent. They also say a rate hike could impede modest economic recovery, given US trade tensions and a weak job market.
麦克勒姆表示，美国的新关税将拖累第四季度经济，但他对2027年增长重新加快充满信心，因为消费支出将继续、出口将回升、企业投资将增强。
Macklem said new US tariffs would slow the economy in the fourth quarter, but expressed confidence that growth should pick up again in 2027 as consumer spending continues, exports pick up and business investment strengthens.
加拿大央行最新的货币政策报告预测，在第二季度实现3.3%的强劲年化增长后，经济增速可能在第三季度放缓至2%，第四季度进一步降至0.8%。
After a robust annualised growth of 3.3 percent in the second quarter, the economy is likely to slow to 2 percent in the third quarter and further down to 0.8 percent in the fourth quarter, the BoC’s new monetary policy report projected.
然而，该报告将明年和后年的国内生产总值（GDP）预测从7月预测的2027年和2028年均为1.8%上调至2%。
The report, however, upgraded its gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for next year and the year after to 2 percent from 1.8 percent for both 2027 and 2028, as predicted in July.
麦克勒姆表示，这一额外增长将有助于吸收经济中的闲置产能（即松弛度）。加拿大央行的下一次利率决定将于12月9日宣布。
Macklem said this additional growth would help absorb the slack, or its unused capacity, in the economy. The BoC’s next rate decision is on December 9.