全球信贷市场恶化正在波及日本，企业信用风险自2022年9月以来出现最大幅度恶化，给本已消化创纪录发行量的债券市场增添了压力。
A deterioration in global credit markets is showing up in Japan, where corporate credit risk has worsened by the most since September 2022, adding pressure to a bond market already absorbing record issuance.
据彭博追踪的40家主要日本公司，从10月1日至28日，其五年期信用违约互换（CDS）全部上涨，其中软银集团和日产汽车涨幅领先。中位数涨幅为12个基点。
SoftBank Group Corp. and Nissan Motor Co. led the widening as five-year credit-default swaps on all 40 major Japanese companies tracked by Bloomberg rose from Oct. 1 through Oct. 28. The median increase was 12 basis points.
这一变动发生之际，与人工智能（AI）相关的信用担忧在全球蔓延，美国投资级债券利差扩大，包括Meta Platforms Inc.在内的科技公司CDS也随之上涨。日本上一次出现类似幅度的扩大是在2022年9月，当时全球货币政策激进收紧，且英国在特拉斯执政期间出现市场动荡。
The move comes as AI-related credit concerns spread globally, with US investment-grade bond spreads widening and CDS rising for technology companies including Meta Platforms Inc. The last comparable widening in Japan came in September 2022, amid aggressive global monetary tightening and UK market turmoil under Liz Truss.
“AI势头减弱，担忧情绪正在市场蔓延，”瑞穗证券高级信用分析师铃木敏之表示，并提到围绕CoreWeave Inc.的信用担忧。他还说，CDS也对汽车行业的负面进展（特别是欧洲的裁员）做出剧烈反应。
“AI momentum has weakened, and concern is spreading across the market,” said Toshiyuki Suzuki, senior credit analyst at Mizuho Securities Co., citing credit concerns surrounding CoreWeave Inc. CDS are also reacting sharply to negative developments in the auto industry, particularly in Europe, such as job cuts, he said.
彭博汇编的数据显示，10月日本企业债券发行额达到约2.5万亿日元（约合160亿美元），创下单月纪录，较上年同期增长约50%。2026财年上半年（注：原文为fiscal 2026，即2025年4月至2025年9月）发行额也创下10.6万亿日元的纪录。国内企业债券利差处于约两年半以来的高位。
Japanese corporate bond sales reached about ¥2.5 trillion ($16 billion) in October, a record for the month and up about 50% from a year earlier, data compiled by Bloomberg show. First-half fiscal 2026 issuance also hit a record ¥10.6 trillion. Domestic corporate bond spreads are at a roughly two-and-a-half-year high.
已经出现紧张迹象。三井不动产在考虑市场条件后搁置了一笔债券发行，NTT Finance Corp.发行规模低于最初预期，韩国进出口银行因市场波动推迟了一笔全球日元债券发行。
There are already signs of strain. Mitsui Fudosan Co. shelved a bond sale after considering market conditions, NTT Finance Corp. raised less than initially expected, and Export-Import Bank of Korea postponed a global yen bond sale because of market volatility.
野村证券高级信用分析师荻野一真表示，供给充裕以及近期政府债券收益率下降，正促使投资者要求更宽的利差。对人工智能投资和法国公共财政的担忧也在“产生共振”，推高了信用违约互换（CDS）利差。他称，对于日本债券市场而言，背景因素“更多是逆风”。
Heavy supply and a recent decline in government bond yields are pushing investors to demand wider spreads, said Kazuma Ogino, senior credit analyst at Nomura Securities Co. Concerns over AI investment and French public finances are also “resonating” and pushing CDS wider. For Japan’s bond market, the backdrop is “more of a headwind,” he said.
