美联储的“烟火秀”不过如此，是时候回归正事了。市场对美联储周三维持利率不变的决定不以为意。比美联储的决定或主席凯文·沃什的新闻发布会更重要的是微软和Alphabet的科技股财报，以及甲骨文更为谨慎的资本支出展望——后者对该股乃至更广泛的人工智能交易而言是一个积极催化剂。股市对美联储几乎毫无反应，这本身可以被视为一个积极信号。
So much for Fed fireworks. It's time to get back to business. Markets shrugged at the Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady on Wednesday. More significant than the Fed's decision or Chairman Kevin Warsh's press conference were tech earnings from Microsoft and Alphabet , and a more muted capex outlook from Oracle — the latter a positive catalyst for the stock and the AI trade more broadly. The fact that stocks barely reacted to the Fed could be viewed as a positive.
美联储的决定此前已被广泛预告。沃什也重申，他“在缺乏危机的情况下”不相信前瞻性指引。他在新闻发布会上果然一如既往，这也解释了为何他讲话期间波动率并未飙升。市场现在重新转向基本面——即第三季度财报——以及人工智能交易的前景。在这些方面，在neocloud债务利差大幅上升引发一轮波动之后，投资者可能正变得更加安心。
The Fed's decision was widely telegraphed. And Warsh reiterated that he doesn't believe in forward guidance, "absent a crisis." He held true to form in his press conference, which explains why volatility didn't spike as he spoke. The market now shifts back to fundamentals — namely third quarter earnings — along with the outlook for the AI trade. On those fronts, investors may be getting more comfortable after a bout of volatility triggered by a sharp increase in spreads on neocloud debt.
B. Riley Wealth首席市场策略师阿特·霍根表示：“当标普500指数有36%的成分股在单周内发布财报、44%的市值在一周内集中公布时，其他大多数事情往往都会被置于次要位置。”霍根说：“市场正聚焦于财报，而到目前为止，成绩单看起来非常好。”科技股正在反弹，其中neocloud板块尤为突出，通过Roundhill Neocloud ETF来看，该板块本周大涨逾16%。
"When you have 36% of the S & P 500 reporting in a single week, 44% of the market cap of the S & P 500 reporting in one week, you tend to have most of everything else take a back seat," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth. "The market is focusing on earnings, and thus far the scorecard looks very good," Hogan said. Tech stocks are rebounding with neoclouds in particular surging more than 16% this week, as shown through the Roundhill Neocloud ETF .
半导体股同样走高，iShares半导体ETF本周上涨超过7%。这一回升出现在韩国存储芯片巨头SK海力士隔夜公布创纪录的季度利润之后，也出现在Anthropic周一提交S-1注册声明准备上市之后。投资者正处于财报季最繁忙的一周，标普500指数中有163家公司将公布业绩。
Semiconductors are also higher with the iShares Semiconductor ETF climbing more than 7% this week. That revival comes after South Korea memory giant SK Hynix posted record quarterly profit overnight, and after Anthropic filed its S-1 registration statement on Monday to go public. Investors are in the middle of the busiest week of earnings, with 163 S & P 500 companies set to report results.
Alphabet和微软的财报结果参差不齐，投资者对微软反应积极，而Alphabet因对2027年资本开支可能增加的预期，盘后股价下滑。亚马逊公司是下一个重头戏，将于周四公布财报。公司业绩超预期的比例尚可，但增速有所放缓。据经济学家兼策略师Ed Yardeni表示，标普500指数有望录得第四个连续季度超过25%的盈利增长，但营收仅比共识预期高出1.7%，低于第二季度平均3.8%的超预期幅度。
Results from Alphabet and Microsoft were mixed with investors reacting favorably to Microsoft while Alphabet slid after-hours on prospects for higher capex in 2027 . Amazon.com is the next big one, posting earnings Thursday. Companies are beating forecasts at a decent rate, albeit with a slowdown. The S & P 500 is on track to post a fourth straight quarter of above-25% earnings growth, but revenues are coming in only 1.7% ahead of consensus forecasts, down from an average 3.8% beat in the second quarter, according to economist and strategist Ed Yardeni.
盈利超预期6.5%，低于第一和第二季度的8%以上，他指出，这两个季度均“未计入公允价值变动收益和税务冲回”。一个积极因素是，科技及其他领域的利润率均在改善。Yardeni在一份报告中指出，截至10月23日，标普500指数的远期利润率预测达到创纪录的16.8%，年内上升1.4个百分点。这不仅仅是“七巨头”的故事。
Earnings have topped estimates by 6.5%, down from more than 8% in the first and second quarters, which both "excluded mark-to-market gains and a tax reversal," he notes. One positive is that margins are improving, both in tech and beyond. As of October 23, the S & P 500's forward profit margin forecast was at a record high 16.8%, up 1.4 percentage points year-to-date, Yardeni pointed out in a note. It's not just a Magnificent 7 story.
他补充说，标普493指数的远期利润率今年“令人印象深刻”地上升2.6个百分点，达到14.6%。可以肯定的是，高收益率和高油价的背景可能继续对市场构成阻碍。利率路径仍将维持高位，联邦基金期货继续定价12月9日美联储会议结束时加息25个基点，将使其区间维持在4.00%至4.25%。与伊朗的战争仍是悬而未决的隐患。
The forward profit margin for the S & P 493 collectively is up "an impressive" 2.6 percentage points to 14.6% this year, he added. To be sure, a backdrop of higher yields and higher oil could remain a hindrance for the market. And the path for interest rates remain higher, with fed funds futures continuing to price in a quarter-point hike at the conclusion of the Dec. 9 Fed meeting, putting it in the range of 4.00% to 4.25%. The war with Iran remains an overhang.
敌对行动重启，可能在中期选举之后，可能导致油价再次飙升并扼杀市场反弹。政治结果也至关重要。民主党若赢得众议院和参议院，对市场的影响将大于国会分裂且共和党继续控制参议院的情况。虽然AI股票有所反弹，但一些投资者仍持谨慎态度，主张从科技股沉重的标普500指数中分散投资。该策略今年已获回报，Invesco标普500等权重ETF上涨超过13%。
Renewed hostilities, potentially after the midterms, could send oil prices soaring again and derail a market rally. The political outcome also matters. A Democrat sweep of the House and Senate would have more market implications than a split Congress with Republicans retaining control of the Senate. While AI stocks have rebounded a bit, some investors remain cautious, arguing for diversification from the tech-heavy S & P 500. That strategy has paid off this year with Invesco S & P 500 equal weight ETF up more than 13%.
DoubleLine Capital首席执行官兼首席投资官杰弗里·冈德拉赫周三在接受CNBC采访时表示，他偏好将30%的资产配置于股票，重点关注等权重标普500指数。“我不喜欢市值加权的标普500，”他说。“我不想承受所有这些来自人工智能问题或潜在问题的爆炸半径中心的风险敞口。”一些策略师仍对整体股市保持看好，并认为随着收益率维持高位，固定收益资产更具价值。
Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO-CIO of DoubleLine Capital, told CNBC on Wednesday that he favors a 30% allocation to equities with a focus on the equal-weight S & P 500. "I don't like the cap-weighted S & P," he said. "I don't want all this exposure to the epicenter of the blast radius of the AI problems or developing problems." Some strategists remain bullish on equities broadly, and see more value in fixed income as yields remain elevated.
“尽管未来几个月美联储仍有更多加息计划，但我们认为当前背景依然有利，”瑞银首席投资办公室全球股票主管乌尔里克·霍夫曼-布赫哈迪在美联储会议前的一份报告中表示。“我们不认为有节制的紧缩周期会使美国经济脱轨，投资者应保持多元化的股票敞口，并利用收益率上升有选择地增加优质债券配置，”霍夫曼-布赫哈迪补充道。
"While more Fed hikes remain in store in the coming months, we think the current backdrop remains favorable," said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, global head of equities at UBS Chief Investment Office in a note ahead of the Fed meeting. "We do not believe a measured tightening cycle will derail the US economy, and investors should maintain diversified equity exposure and use the rise in yields to add selectively to quality bonds," Hoffmann-Burchardi added.