澳大利亚企业监管机构尚未收到任何预测市场提供商在该国运营的申请，此类平台在澳大利亚很可能面临赌博监管而非金融监管。
Australia’s corporate regulator has not received a single application from a prediction market provider to operate in the country, where such platforms would likely face gambling rather than financial regulations.
澳大利亚证券与投资委员会（ASIC）主席莎拉·考特（Sarah Court）周四在议会听证会上表示，根据该国的金融服务许可制度提交申请，将给ASIC一个机会来测试预测市场是否合适，但目前尚无此类申请。她补充说，任何申请都将面临很高的门槛。
An application under the country’s financial services licensing regime would give the Australian Securities and Investments Commission a chance to test whether prediction markets are suitable, however none are yet forthcoming, according to Sarah Court, chair of ASIC, speaking during a parliamentary hearing Thursday. Any application would face a high bar to clear, she added.
考特说：“委员会尚未被要求正式决定是否批准预测市场面向澳大利亚零售参与者运营的市场牌照。”“我不确定将其描述为面向零售参与者的投资产品是否是我们会急于推进的事情，”她说。
“The commission hasn’t yet been required to make a formal decision about whether or not to grant a market license for the operation of a prediction market to retail participants in Australia,” Court said. “I’m not sure describing them as an investment product for retail participants is something we’d be rushing into,” she said.
据考特透露，委员会已在内部讨论过该话题，她表示，这些平台促成的押注看起来类似于二元期权，而二元期权是澳大利亚禁止的衍生品合约。
The commission has discussed the topic internally, according to Court, who said the wagers they facilitate appear similar to binary options, derivative contracts that are banned in Australia.
近年来，Kalshi和Polymarket等平台的交易在全球激增，促成了数十亿美元关于从政治到商业技术发展等话题的押注。它们作为市场运营商的分类使得其中一些得以在传统赌博规则之外运营，引发了政策制定者的担忧。预测市场还因可能被掌握政治决策或技术发展提前信息的内部人士滥用、从而获取不公平利润而受到审查。
Trading on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket has surged globally in recent years, facilitating billions of dollars in wagers on topics from politics to commercial technology development. Their classification as market operators has allowed some of them to operate outside traditional gambling rules, sparking concern from policymakers. Prediction markets have also attracted scrutiny for potential abuse by insiders with advance knowledge of political decisions or technology development who could profit unfairly.
8月，澳大利亚证券与投资委员会（ASIC）在其“理财智慧”（Moneysmart）网站上发布警告，称澳大利亚用户若使用海外预测市场，将无法获得包括“争议解决程序”和“客户资金保障”在内的法律保护，一旦出现问题，将难以追回损失。澳大利亚通信与媒体管理局（ACMA）指示互联网服务提供商屏蔽Polymarket，以打击“非法在线赌博网站”。
In August, ASIC issued a warning on its Moneysmart website saying Australian users of overseas prediction markets would not be able to access legal protections including “dispute resolution processes,” and “client money safeguards,” that would make it hard to recover losses should something go wrong. The Australian Communications and Media Authority instructed internet providers to block Polymarket in a crackdown on “illegal online gambling sites.”
“如果我们收到申请，有一项法定测试是我们必须适用的，”Court表示。“据我所知，预测市场具备赌注的所有特征——要么全赢要么全输，结果往往基于与投资或金融市场毫无关联的事项。”她表示，澳大利亚人可以直接访问这些平台，但其参与不受澳大利亚金融法规的保障。“它们被描述为一种市场，”但“等同于双向押注，你可能在单笔交易中损失所有资金，”Court说。
“If we get an application, there’s a statutory test that we would have to apply,” Court said. “Prediction markets as I understand them have all the features of a bet — an all-or-nothing outcome, often based on something that’s got nothing to do with an investment or a financial market.”She said Australians can access these platforms directly, but their participation is not safeguarded by Australia’s financial regulations. “They’re described as a market,” but are “equivalent to having a bet each way and you can lose all your money in a single transaction,” Court said.