
作者:Nicola M White 和 Rebecca Klar监管预测市场这一快速增长行业风险的监管机构名单上,又增加了一名监管者:美国证券交易委员会(SEC)。
By Nicola M White and Rebecca Klar Add another regulator to the list of watchdogs monitoring risks in the fast-growing prediction market industry: the Securities and Exchange Commission.
与公司关键绩效指标或盈利指标挂钩的交易可能属于这家华尔街监管机构的管辖范围,SEC执法总监David Woodcock表示,该机构正在密切关注是否存在违规迹象。
Trades tied to companies’ key performance indicators or earnings measures can fall under the Wall Street regulator’s turf and SEC Enforcement Director David Woodcock said the agency is watching out for signs of foul play.
“我们正在非常密切地跟进此事,”Woodcock在接受彭博社采访时表示。“当人们实施欺诈或其他证券违规行为时,我们必须做好采取行动的准备,我认为我们会这么做。我推测你们将会看到我们在该领域采取执法行动。”
“We’re following that very closely,” Woodcock said in an interview with Bloomberg. “We have to be ready to act when people are committing fraud or committing other securities violations, and I think we are going to be. I suspect you will see activity in that space.”

Woodcock表示,内幕交易和市场操纵是SEC的主要关注点,并补充说,执法行动“未来肯定会有”。对Kalshi和Polymarket美国分部等预测市场的监管主要由规模较小的华盛顿金融监管机构——商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)负责,该机构将这些平台上涵盖从体育到选举等各类押注视为属于其管辖的金融掉期交易。
Insider trading and market manipulation are the SEC’s main concerns, Woodcock said, adding that enforcement activity is likely “in the future, for sure.”Oversight of prediction markets like Kalshi and the US arm of Polymarket largely falls to the smaller Washington financial regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which views the platforms’ wagers on everything from sports to elections as financial swaps under its purview.
今年以来,该机构已提起多起预测市场执法案件。前众议员George Santos同意为解决涉嫌操纵Kalshi押注的指控支付超过3.5万美元。一名白宫提词器操作员涉嫌利用内幕信息在Kalshi上获利,已与CFTC达成和解。
That agency has brought several prediction market enforcement cases so far this year. Former Congressman George Santos agreed to pay more than $35,000 to settle allegations he manipulated Kalshi wagers and a White House teleprompter operator settled with the CFTC over allegedly using insider information to rack up wins on Kalshi.
4月,CFTC和联邦检方指控一名美国士兵利用关于当时委内瑞拉总统Nicolás Maduro被捕时机的机密信息,在Polymarket上获利超过40万美元。该案件正在审理中,该士兵已表示不认罪。
In April, the CFTC and federal prosecutors alleged a US soldier used classified information about the timing of the capture of then-Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to make more than $400,000 on Polymarket. That case is ongoing and the soldier has pleaded not guilty.
Kalshi和Polymarket表示,它们反对内幕交易,会监控平台潜在风险,并向监管机构报告可疑活动。
Kalshi and Polymarket have said they are against insider trading, monitor their platforms for potential risks and flag suspicious activities to regulators.
美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)将这些平台视为衍生品交易所,但一些州认为预测市场属于非法赌博业务,规避了当地法律。这引发了一场高风险的官司,最终很可能上诉至美国最高法院。
The CFTC views the platforms as derivative exchanges but some states argue prediction markets are illegal gambling operations shirking local laws. That has led to a high-stakes legal fight that will likely end up at the US Supreme Court.
当交易产品与证券挂钩时,便归入美国证券交易委员会(SEC)的监管范围。该机构与CFTC联合发布了一份关于某些互换和衍生品产品定义的征求意见请求,旨在厘清两个机构的管辖范围。
Trading products become the SEC’s turf when they are tied to securities. The agency put out a joint request for comment with the CFTC on the definitions of certain swaps and derivatives products as part of a bid to clarify the two agencies’ jurisdictions.
此后,芝加哥期权交易所全球市场公司(Cboe Global Markets Inc.)获得SEC批准,可以上市与公司业绩指标挂钩的期权合约。这些押注允许客户就花旗集团每股收益、苹果公司iPhone净销售额等事项进行交易。
Since then, Cboe Global Markets Inc. has won SEC approval to list options contracts tied to corporate performance metrics. Those wagers allow customers to trade on issues like Citigroup Inc.’s earnings per share and net sales of Apple Inc.’s iPhone.