首尔，10月29日：路透社周四公布的一项调查显示，韩国10月出口增速可能加速至50多年来最快，主要得益于与人工智能投资相关的半导体需求强劲以及存储芯片价格上涨。
SEOUL, Oct 29 : South Korea's export growth likely accelerated to its fastest pace in more than 50 years in October, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday, driven by robust demand for AI investment-related semiconductors and higher memory chip prices.
路透社调查的九位经济学家的中位数估计显示，作为全球贸易风向标的亚洲第四大经济体韩国，其出口预计较去年同期增长93.2%，高于9月的83.7%增幅。
Exports from Asia's fourth-largest economy, a bellwether for global trade, were forecast to have risen 93.2 per cent this month from a year earlier, up from an 83.7 per cent increase in September, the median estimate of nine economists surveyed by Reuters showed.
如果成真，这将标志着韩国出口连续第17个月增长，也是自1974年1月以来的最强增幅。今年前九个月，韩国出口额已超过8000亿美元，超过去年全年纪录。
If realised, it would mark a 17th straight month of export growth and the strongest increase since January 1974. South Korea's exports exceeded $800 billion in the first nine months of the year, already surpassing last year's full-year record.
由人工智能驱动的芯片繁荣持续推动经济增长。韩国第三季度国内生产总值（GDP）增长1.0%，超出预期；芯片制造商SK海力士报告称，其季度利润增长七倍多。
The AI-driven chip boom has continued to fuel the economy. South Korea's gross domestic product grew 1.0 per cent in the third quarter, beating expectations, while chip manufacturer SK Hynix reported a more than seven-fold jump in quarterly profit.
经济学家将出口增长归因于与人工智能投资挂钩的强劲半导体需求以及更坚挺的存储芯片价格，但警告称日历效应发挥了重要作用。
Economists attributed the export growth to robust semiconductor demand tied to AI investment and firmer memory chip prices, but cautioned that calendar effects played a significant role.
由于中秋节时间不同，10月有22个工作日，而去年同期为20个，这往往会扭曲韩国9月和10月的贸易数据。
October had 22 working days compared with 20 a year earlier, owing to differences in the timing of Chuseok holidays, which often distort South Korea's trade data in September and October.
渣打银行经济学家朴钟勋（Park Chong-hoon，音译）表示：“出口和进口可能出现的大幅增长，主要反映了日历效应和有利的基数对比，而非底层贸易活动的可比加速。”
"The likely sharp increases in exports and imports mainly reflect calendar effects and favourable base comparisons rather than a comparable acceleration in underlying trade activity," said Park Chong-hoon, an economist at Standard Chartered.
梅里兹证券分析师李斯蒂芬（Stephen Lee，音译）表示，出口由半导体和计算机在人工智能投资需求的推动下拉动，而增长动能也正扩展至汽车和无线通信设备等其他领域。
Stephen Lee, an analyst at Meritz Securities, said exports were driven by semiconductors and computers on AI investment demand, while growth momentum was also broadening to other sectors such as cars and wireless communication devices.
李斯蒂芬说：“显然，不仅是出口价格上涨，出口量的增加也在推动GDP增长。”
"Higher volumes, not just higher export prices, are clearly contributing to GDP growth," Lee said.
预计10月进口同比增长39.9%，增速较9月的26.0%加快，为2021年11月以来最强增幅。
Imports were forecast to have risen 39.9 per cent in October from a year earlier, accelerating from a 26.0 per cent gain in September and marking the strongest increase since November 2021.
预计月度贸易顺差中位数为372.4亿美元，低于9月的499.7亿美元顺差。
The monthly trade surplus was forecast at a median $37.24 billion, down from September's $49.97 billion surplus.
韩国定于11月1日周日上午9点（格林威治标准时间0000）公布10月贸易数据。
South Korea is scheduled to report October trade figures on Sunday, November 1, at 9 a.m. (0000 GMT).