哪些参议员候选人更有能力在未来六年里帮助其所在的州，进而帮助该州的公民？这是每个设有竞争激烈的参议院席位的州的选民，在现在到周二投票结束之间做出选择前都应该问自己的问题。第一个例子是缅因州，参议员苏珊·柯林斯在那里对阵特洛伊·杰克逊。杰克逊是缅因州民主党——而不是选民——挑选的人选，此前格雷厄姆·普拉特纳在7月10日竞选崩溃并退出了竞选。
Which candidates for Senate are in a better position to help their state and, by extension, their citizens in the six years ahead? This is the question voters in every state with a contested Senate seat should ask themselves before they vote between now and the close of voting Tuesday. Example number one is Maine, where Senator Susan Collins is matched against Troy Jackson. Jackson is the man picked by Maine’s Democratic Party — not the voters — after Graham Platner crashed, burned and withdrew from the race on July 10.
尽管杰克逊在普拉特纳赢得初选的同一天举行的民主党州长初选中仅名列第三，该州的党委会还是选了他。民调将缅因州的这场竞选列为势均力敌，但在2020年投票结束时，民调显示柯林斯落后至少4个百分点，而她实际上以超过8%的优势获胜。早安荣耀：民主党拥有四名极端派参议员候选人的“狂热四人组”缅因州的选民不太可能放弃柯林斯所拥有的资历——她是权势巨大的参议院拨款委员会的主席——而去选择一个菜鸟，后者的资历在参议院最看重的指标——现任议员在该机构的服务年限上——将并列垫底。
The party’s state committee picked Jackson even though he had finished third in the Democratic governor’s primary the same day Platner won his primary. Polls rate the Maine race as a toss-up, but polls at the close in 2020 had Collins behind by at least four percentage points, and she in fact won by more than 8%. MORNING GLORY: THE DEMOCRATS HAVE A 'FANATIC FOUR' OF EXTREMIST SENATE CANDIDATES Maine voters are unlikely to surrender the seniority Collins holds — she is chair of the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee — for a rookie who would rank tied for last in the currency that matters the most in the Senate: the incumbent’s years served in the body.
再加上这样一个现实：每个缅因州人似乎都至少认识这位参议员，全州各地的社区都受益于她在连续1万多次投票中所积累的影响力，柯林斯有望再次获胜。在南卡罗来纳州，参议员达尔琳·格雷厄姆自她的兄弟林赛去世以来一直在任。这让她比今年当选的新参议员更有优势，在一个在2024年以18%的优势支持唐纳德·特朗普的州，格雷厄姆很有可能会回归并开启完整的六年任期。俄亥俄州的现任参议员乔恩·胡斯泰德自2025年1月起一直在参议院任职。
Add to that reality the fact that every Mainer seems to know the senator at least in passing and that communities across the state have benefited from the influence she has accumulated over more than 10,000 consecutive roll call votes, and Collins is poised to win. Again. In South Carolina, Sen. Darline Graham has been serving since her brother Lindsey died. That gives her a leg up on new senators elected this year, and in a state that went for Donald Trump by 18% in 2024, it’s very likely Graham will return for a full six-year term. Ohio’s incumbent Sen. Jon Husted has been in the Senate since January 2025.
作为多数党成员，他有能力为“七叶树州”争取更多利益，远胜于被俄亥俄选民在两年前淘汰、靠领取政府薪水度过近50年的“翻版”民主党人谢罗德·布朗。布朗极其自由派的从政生涯已与俄亥俄选民脱节，后者在2024年以超过11个百分点的优势支持特朗普。赫斯特德是为俄亥俄争取利益的最佳人选。
As a member of the majority, he’s in a position to deliver more for the Buckeye State than the recycled Democrat Sherrod Brown, who was ousted by Ohio voters two years ago after collecting government paychecks for almost 50 years. Brown’s very liberal career lost touch with an Ohio electorate that went for Trump in 2024 by more than 11 points. Husted is the best candidate to deliver for Ohio.
在密歇根州，无论是共和党人迈克·罗杰斯还是民主党人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德，都将是初任参议员，但埃尔-赛义德白热化的激进主义将把他推向参议院的一个角落，那里除了伯尼·桑德斯别无他人。相比之下，罗杰斯是一位拥有14年众议院经验的主流、温和派共和党人。预计罗杰斯将受到参议院共和党团的热烈欢迎，后者正将密歇根视为2028年总统大选的战场州。
In Michigan, either Republican Mike Rogers or Democrat Abdul El-Sayed would be a freshman senator, but El-Sayed’s white-hot radicalism will put him in a corner of the Senate that is empty except for Bernie Sanders. Rogers, by contrast, is a mainstream, moderate Republican with 14 years of experience in the House. Expect Rogers to receive a warm welcome from the Senate GOP, which is eyeing Michigan as a battleground state in the 2028 presidential election.
大多数共和党提名竞争者都去过密歇根为罗杰斯助选，这是有原因的。宾夕法尼亚州参议员戴夫·麦考米克本周造访“狼獾州”，毫不意外，麦考米克的名字也在2028年的竞逐行列中。得克萨斯州共和党参议员特德·克鲁兹也是如此，他在本选举周期似乎到处为各人助选（这正是潜在总统候选人会做的事）。克鲁兹于10月17日现身阿拉斯加，为参议员丹·沙利文助选，后者是拥有为阿拉斯加人争取巨大利益能力的两届现任议员。
There’s a reason why most contenders for the GOP nomination have been to Michigan to lend Rogers a hand. Pennsylvania’s Senator Dave McCormick was in the Wolverine State this week, and not surprisingly, McCormick’s name is in the mix for 2028. That's also true for Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, who seems to have been everywhere this election cycle helping everyone (as a prospective candidate for the presidency does). Cruz was in Alaska on October 17 to give an assist to Sen. Dan Sullivan, who is a two-term incumbent with enormous ability to deliver for Alaskans.
相比之下，如果共和党如我预期保持多数党地位，民主党提名人玛丽·佩尔托拉将沦为少数党中的初任议员。这是一笔极其糟糕的交易，恐怕大多数阿拉斯加人都不愿接受。特朗普总统的阿拉斯加竞选之行——对在任总统而言实属罕见——旨在提振当地投票率，并聚焦北方正在上演的肮脏伎俩。一名第二个“诱饵”丹·沙利文被安插在四选一的选票上，企图从真正的参议员那里分流哪怕几票。
Democratic nominee Mary Peltola, by contrast, would be a freshman in the minority party if, as I expect, the GOP retains the majority. That’s a terrible trade and one that it is doubtful most Alaskans want to make. President Trump’s campaign trip to Alaska — rare for a sitting president — was intended to juice turnout there and to focus attention on the dirty tricks at work up north. A second "decoy" Dan Sullivan was planted on the four-choice ballot in the hopes of draining even a few votes from the real Sen. Dan Sullivan in Alaska’s weird ranked-choice voting scheme.
丹·沙利文身处阿拉斯加州奇怪的排序选择投票制度之中。真正的丹·沙利文——这位资历深厚、身兼参议院军事委员会成员的退役海军陆战队上校，正在呼吁所有选民“不要把玛丽排在前面”，以化解这种诡计。选民人数大约在25万左右。这是一个精明的群体，因为联邦政府在我们的第49个州至关重要。预计真正的参议员丹·沙利文能够挺过难关。
The real Dan Sullivan, the retired Marine Corps colonel on the Armed Services Committee with great seniority, is asking all voters, "Don’t rank Mary," to counteract the trickery. The electorate’s about a quarter of a million people. It’s a savvy bunch because the federal government matters so much in our 49th state. Expect the real Sen. Dan Sullivan to pull through.
特朗普总统2024年在阿拉斯加州以超过13%的优势获胜。他还以超过13%的优势赢得了得克萨斯州和艾奥瓦州，这告诉我们，尽管沙利文参议员的资历会对他有所帮助，但在总统任期第六年的“艰难环境”下，得克萨斯州的肯·帕克斯顿和艾奥瓦州的阿什利·欣森这两位初次参选的候选人，即使面对两州的民主党初次被提名人也应该会胜出。
President Trump won Alaska by more than 13% in 2024. He also won Texas and Iowa by more than 13%, which tells us that while Sen. Sullivan’s seniority will help him, even first-time candidates Ken Paxton in Texas and Ashley Hinson in Iowa should prevail against Democratic first-time nominees in both states, even in the "tough environment" of a president’s sixth year in office.
特朗普总统本周已前往这两个州来激发基本盘的活力。不管民调结果如何——民调显示这两场竞选势均力敌——帕克斯顿和欣森似乎都状况良好且民调支持率在上升，并且两人都将加入参议院的多数派，而不是权力大幅削弱的少数派。两年前，唐纳德·特朗普在堪萨斯州以超过16%的优势获胜。该州的农民受到了高昂柴油成本的沉重打击，但他们知道参议员罗杰·马歇尔拥有资历，能够在“农业法案”上提供帮助并为该州带来救济。
President Trump has been to both states this week to energize the base. Whatever the polls say — and polls say both races are toss-ups — Paxton and Hinson appear to be in good shape and rising in the polls, and both would be joining a majority in the Senate, not the minority with vastly diminished powers. Kansas went for Donald Trump by more than 16% two years ago. Its farmers have been hit hard by the high cost of diesel, but they know Sen. Roger Marshall has the seniority to help on the "Ag Bill" and deliver relief for the state.
那位与亲切的马歇尔医生竞选的亲切牧师则做不到。内布拉斯加州的参议员皮特·里基茨也是如此。这最终让我们想到了明尼苏达州，这是一个深蓝州，但该州却提名了一位极左的民主党候选人——副州长佩吉·弗拉纳根，她在该州担任此职的8年时间，恰逢明尼苏达州发生大规模欺诈丑闻以及索马里裔美国青年帮派暴力事件激增。
The nice pastor running against the nice Dr. Marshall doesn’t. The same is true for Sen. Pete Ricketts in Nebraska. Which brings us finally to Minnesota, which is a deep blue state but one that nominated a far-far-to-the-left Democratic candidate in Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, whose eight years in that state job coincided with the massive fraud scandals in Minnesota and soaring violence among gangs of Somali-American youths.
民主党农民劳工党决定坚定走向左翼，而共和党则提名了耀眼的政治“年度新秀”米歇尔·塔福亚。
The Democratic Farmer-Labor Party decided to go way left even as the GOP nominated the sparkling political "Rookie of the Year" in Michele Tafoya.
密歇根州可能拥有最受关注的竞选，因为此前从未有过像埃尔-赛义德这样的极端分子如此接近赢得参议院竞选，但最大的冷门可能会出现在明尼苏达州，地鼠州的选民们重拾了偶尔将共和党人送入参议院的传统。美国的民调和周二在以色列选举中遭遇惨败的以色列民调一样糟糕。（总理内塔尼亚胡赢得了最大党派和最大执政联盟，几乎没有任何主流民调预见到这一点——如果有的话。）
Michigan might have the most-watched race because there’s never been an extremist like El-Sayed so close to winning a Senate race before, but the biggest upset could come in Minnesota, with Gopher State voters returning to the tradition of sending their occasional Republican to the Senate. American polling is as broken as Israeli polling, which just face-planted in Israel’s elections Tuesday. (Prime Minister Netanyahu emerged with the largest party and the largest coalition, which very few, if any, major polls saw coming.)
信任民调来对美国参议院竞选的预测市场进行押注，其愚蠢程度不亚于在厄尔尼诺年使用《农夫年鉴》来计划假期。总统特朗普创纪录的竞选资金和竞选节奏并没有结合起来让共和党人免于焦虑。但共和党人肯定不会听命于传统媒体和民调机构，这些机构再次几乎全部公开倾向于民主党。这场投票将极其引人关注，但如果“难分难解的选区”在红色州最终演变成一边倒的大胜，也不要感到惊讶。
Trusting polls to place bets on the prediction markets for American Senate races is as foolish as using the Farmers’ Almanac to plan your vacation in an El Niño year. s the record amount and pace of campaigning by President Trump don’t combine to leave the GOP anxiety-free. But Republicans surely don’t take their cues from legacy media and pollsters, which are, again, almost all openly tilted toward Democrats. The vote will be intensely interesting, but if "toss-ups" turn out to be blowouts in red states, don’t be surprised. FROM HUGH HEWITT