格林威治标准时间上午8点，《每日电讯报》独家披露，伊朗正准备干扰美国中期选举，此前该国曾试图干颏以色列本周的选举。
8:00am GMT Iran is preparing to disrupt the US midterm elections after attempting to interfere in Israel’s vote this week, The Telegraph can reveal.
多名伊朗官员表示，德黑兰将这两大死敌几乎同时举行选举视为难得良机，并决心通过渗透选举机制本身来加以利用。
Several Iranian officials said Tehran viewed the near-simultaneous elections of its two biggest enemies as a rare opportunity, which it was determined to exploit by reaching into the machinery of the ballot itself.
一名官员说：“我们一直在探寻招募特工渗透美以两国政权选举进程的途径。”他补充称：“强大的网络团体也已组建起来，以攻入它们的选举系统。”
“We have been looking into ways to recruit agents in both the American and Israeli regimes’ election processes,” one official said. He added that “powerful cyber groups have also been established to hack their election systems”.
另一名官员将这一行动描述为伊朗认为被强加于其身上的战争的自然延伸。
Another official framed the effort as the natural extension of a war that Iran believes was forced upon it.
他说：“当我们处于它们的封锁之下时，战争不仅仅意味着导弹和枪炮。”
“War does not just mean missiles and guns when we are under their blockade,” he said.
“它也意味着我们已准备好扰乱它们的选举、银行体系、交通出行以及所有日常系统。我们不支持任何地方的任何候选人，但我们希望看到一个分裂的美国和一个分裂的以色列。”伊朗政权希望美国中期选举能给唐纳德·特朗普的军事野心踩下刹车，那才是德黑兰最终的奖赏。
“It also means we are prepared to disrupt their elections, their banking, their travel and all their ordinary systems. We are not in favour of any candidate anywhere, but we would like to see a divided America and a divided Israel.”The Iranian regime hopes the US midterms will put a brake on Donald Trump’s military ambitions That, in the end, is Tehran’s prize.
此次行动在一场以导弹、封锁和无人机为主要手段的战争中开辟了一个隐蔽战线。
The operation opens a covert front in a war that has been fought with missiles, blockades and drones.
这场时断时续的冲突爆发已有八个月，起因是美以炸弹袭击伊朗城市。德黑兰得出结论，通往缓和的最可靠途径不在战场上，而在特拉维夫和华盛顿的投票箱前——实际上是寄希望于选民能做到其导弹未能做到的事。公开场合，伊朗官员对这些选举表现出蔑视。
Eight months into an on-and-off conflict that erupted when American and Israeli bombs struck Iranian cities, Tehran has concluded that the surest route to relief runs not through the battlefield but through the voting booths of Tel Aviv and Washington – hoping, in effect, that voters will do what its missiles could not. Publicly, Iranian officials show contempt for the elections.
当被问及以色列大选时，外交部发言人埃斯迈尔·巴盖伊将其比作冷战讽刺片《奇爱博士》。
Asked about the Israeli election, Esmail Baghaei, the foreign ministry spokesman, likened it to the Cold War satire Dr Strangelove.
“我不认为那里真正有选举，”他周一在德黑兰对记者说。“这是敌对帮派之间关于谁能犯下更多罪恶的竞争——一场关于谁能杀更多人的人的比赛。”他补充说，这无关紧要，“谁最终掌控一个对我们地区唯一成就是杀戮和暴力的政权”。
“I don’t think there’s really an election there,” he told reporters in Tehran on Monday. “It’s a competition between rival gangs over who can commit more evil – a contest over who can kill more.”It made no difference, he added, “who ends up at the helm of a regime whose only achievement for our region has been killing and violence”.
伊朗外交部发言人埃斯迈尔·巴盖伊将以色列选举比作杀人最多的竞赛。然而，私下里，计算却更冷静、更自信。
Esmail Baghaei, the Iranian foreign ministry spokesman, likened the Israeli election to a competition to kill the most people Privately, however, the calculation is colder and more confident.
“对我们来说，美国或以色列任何选举谁赢谁输都无关紧要，”一位第三位高级伊朗官员告诉《每日电讯报》。
“For us it does not matter who wins or who loses any of the elections in America or Israel,” a third senior Iranian official told The Telegraph.
“无论谁在以色列获胜，他们仍将是敌人。而在美国，看到对其好战统治者感到愤怒的选民做出能给世界带来和平的决定，将是件好事。”据报道，以色列总理本杰明·内塔尼亚胡正在选举前推动对伊朗发动新一轮打击。
“Whoever wins in Israel, they will still be the enemy. And in America, it would be good to see voters, who are angry at their warmonger ruler, make a decision that would bring peace to the world.”Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, was pushing for renewed strikes on Iran in the run-up to the election, according to reports.
他经常警告说，如果他担任总理的时期结束，以色列可能面临德黑兰的毁灭性打击。
He frequently warned that Israel might face annihilation at the hands of Tehran if his time as prime minister ended.
但这位伊朗官员警告说，任何新的袭击将比之前遭遇更广泛的回应。
But the Iranian official warned that any renewed assault would be met more broadly than before.
“在德黑兰，我们不是坐等他们的选举结果，我们掌控着战争，”他说。
“In Tehran, we are not sitting and waiting for their election results, and we are in charge of the war,” he said.
“准备好达成有意义的和平，也准备好进行严厉回应——我们的反应不仅限于美国资产，不像上次那样。”在以色列，德黑兰最想要的是瘫痪。
“Ready to make meaningful peace, and ready for a harsh response – and our reaction will not be limited only to American assets, like the previous time.”In Israel, the thing Tehran wants most is paralysis.
一个被联合党磋商和国内清算所困的政府是一个分心的政府，这给了伊朗时间来重建今年打击中受损的导弹和防空储备。
A government consumed by coalition haggling and domestic reckoning is a distracted one, buying Iran time to rebuild the missile and air defence stocks damaged by this year’s strikes.
僵局结果可能导致一个没有重大新进攻授权的看守政府，或迫使再次选举，使决策数月停滞。
A deadlocked result could leave a caretaker government with no mandate for a major new offensive, or force a repeat election that freezes decisions for months.
伦敦布鲁内尔大学国际安全高级讲师史蒂文·瓦格纳博士表示，伊朗有充分理由选择观望，而非采取行动。
Dr Steven Wagner, a senior lecturer in international security at Brunel University of London, said Iran had good reason to watch and wait rather than act.
“我预计伊朗一直希望内塔尼亚胡落败，并希望针对他的刑事诉讼能使他失去未来担任公职的资格，”他说。
“I would expect Iran has been hoping for Netanyahu to lose, and for the criminal proceedings against him to disqualify him from future office,” he said.
“几天后我们才会知道以色列会发生什么，因为组建政府需要时间，而比比很可能会利用每一秒钟，试图拖延。”本杰明·内塔尼亚胡在周二投票结束后向支持者发表讲话时，声称利库德党赢得了最多席位。瓦格纳先生表示，内塔尼亚胡的对手们也面临自己的两难困境，“是否要背弃承诺，与阿拉伯政党组建联合党”，以及加迪·艾森科特——这位总理的主要对手——是否会接受“结束加沙战争的道路，或打击定居者暴力”。
“We won’t know what will happen in Israel for a few days, as forming a government takes time, and Bibi is very likely to use every second of it and attempt to stall.”Benjamin Netanyahu claimed Likud had won the largest share of seats as he addressed supporters after polls closed on Tuesday Mr Netanyahu’s opponents, Mr Wagner said, faced their own dilemmas, “whether to go back on promises and form a coalition with Arab parties,” and whether Gadi Eisenkot, the prime minister’s leading rival, would accept “a path to end the war in Gaza, or a crackdown on settler violence”.
他补充说：“从伊朗的角度来看，有充足时间观望事态发展，继续巩固尚未被摧毁的力量，并在需要的地方加强防御。
He added: “From Iran’s point of view, there is plenty of time to wait and see what happens, to continue to consolidate what hasn’t been destroyed and to bolster defences where they need to.
“在这种情况下，我不预期伊朗会采取任何重大行动，因为这会扰乱他们在两种情况下都有非常大机会获得有利结果的前景。”
“I would not expect any major action from Iran under the circumstances, as it would disturb their very good chances for favourable outcomes in both cases.”
伊朗官员密切关注着以色列选举的进程。目前，无论是支持内塔尼亚胡的阵营还是反对内塔尼亚胡的阵营，都没有足够的席位组建多数政府。
Iranian officials have followed the mechanics of the Israeli elections closely. As it stands, neither the pro-Netanyahu or anti-Netanyahu bloc has enough seats to form a majority.
周三，在近86%的选票统计完成后，以色列三家主要广播机构预测，内塔尼亚胡领导的右翼、极右翼和正统派政党阵营将赢得120席议会中的53个席位，远远领先于对手加迪·艾森科特领导的反对派阵营的48个席位。
With nearly 86 per cent of votes tallied on Wednesday, Israel’s three main broadcasters projected Netanyahu’s bloc of Right-wing, far-Right and ultra-Orthodox parties would win 53 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, well ahead of the 48 for rival Gadi Eisenkot’s opposition bloc.
代表以色列阿拉伯人的政党预计将赢得前所未有的19个席位，这使得艾森科特先生在没有这些政党广泛支持的情况下几乎没有现实的上台之路——而许多犹太政治领袖拒绝这种支持。
Parties representing Arab Israelis were projected to win an unprecedented 19 seats, leaving Mr Eisenkot little realistic path to power without their broad backing – which many Jewish political leaders reject.
伊朗议会国家安全与外交政策委员会成员法达·侯赛因·马勒基说，阿拉伯政党追求两个目标：阻止内塔尼亚胡获胜，并赢得足够席位以影响下一届政府的组建。
Fada Hossein Maleki, a member of the national security and foreign policy committee in the Iranian parliament, said the Arab parties were pursuing two goals: blocking a victory for Mr Netanyahu and winning enough seats to shape the formation of the next government.
“虽然阿拉伯政党本身没有足够席位组建政府，但在没有任何敌对阵营能够获得多数席位的情况下，即使是有限数量的席位也可能起到决定性作用，”他说。
“Although the Arab parties do not by themselves have the seats to form a government, in a situation where none of the rival camps can secure a majority, even a limited number of seats can prove decisive,” he said.
马勒基说，内塔尼亚胡不会与他们结盟，而艾森科特也面临自身限制，因为与阿拉伯政党达成正式协议“可能导致其部分选民基础动摇”。
Netanyahu will not ally with them, Mr Maleki said, and Mr Eisenkot faces his own constraints, since a formal pact with Arab parties “could cause part of his voter base to waver”.
他警告说，如果未能达成协议，“政治僵局持续的可能性将上升”，随之而来的还有重新选举的机会，“这可能在战争期间给政权带来更大的政治和行政压力”。然而，华盛顿是伊朗乐观情绪最高的地方。
If no deal is reached, he warned, “the likelihood of continued political deadlock rises” and with it the chance of a fresh election “that could place greater political and administrative pressure on the regime in the middle of a war”. It is Washington, however, where Iranian optimism runs highest.
11月3日的中期选举将决定众议院和三分之一参议院的控制权。德黑兰赌注是，这些选举将削弱唐纳德·特朗普的势力，使民主党重返国会，从而约束一位官员称之为美国总统“疯狂”的行为。
The midterm elections on Nov 3 will decide control of the House and a third of the Senate. Tehran is betting they will clip Donald Trump’s wings and return Democrats to Congress, restraining what one official called the US president’s “madness”.
瓦格纳博士说：“伊朗将关注美国中期选举，寻找国会可能限制白宫在战争和对以色列开支方面的信号。”伊朗美国事务分析人士阿米尔·阿里·阿博尔法特阐述了德黑兰为何抱有希望——以及为何应谨慎对待。
Dr Wagner said: “Iran will be looking at the US midterms for signals that Congress might restrain the White House’s spending on the war and on Israel.”Amir Ali Abolfath, an Iranian analyst of American affairs, laid out why Tehran has hopes – and why it should temper them.
他说，三个指标指向同一方向——执政党在首次中期选举中失利的传统“对共和党不利”；显示民主党在众议院获胜机会更大的民调，以及博彩市场将其夺取众议院的几率定在“大约75%至80%”。
Three indicators, he said, point the same way – the tradition that a ruling party loses ground in its first midterm, which “works against the Republicans”; polling that gives Democrats the better chance in the House, and betting markets that put their odds of taking the House at “around 75 to 80 per cent”.
阿博尔法特表示，参议院选举“是一场更艰难的竞争”，市场给予民主党获胜的概率为60%。但共和党“已倾尽全力争取保住参议院”，而一个敌对的国会本身也无法停止战争。
The Senate race “is a harder contest” Mr Abolfath said, with the markets offering the Democrats a 60 per cent chance of victory. But Republicans “have thrown everything into holding the Senate”, and a hostile Congress would not by itself halt the war.
“一个与总统不一致的国会会制造障碍和麻烦，”他说，“但不应想象仅靠民主党获胜就能阻止战争，因为他们并不完全掌握那种权力，而美国总统作为总司令，拥有发动或重启攻击的相当大权力。”阿博尔法特警告称，这次投票可能会加速，而非推迟，对伊朗发动新一轮打击。
“A Congress not aligned with the president can create obstacles and headaches,” he said, “but one should not imagine that a Democratic victory alone would prevent war, because they do not fully hold that power, and the US president, as commander-in-chief, has considerable authority to launch or resume an attack.”Mr Abolfath warned that the vote could accelerate, rather than delay, a new strike on Iran.
白宫可能会计算，自己能够“在三四天内结束战争”，并在选举前夕宣布已迫使伊朗投降，从而让共和党获胜，他说。
The White House might calculate that it could “end the war in three or four days”, and declare on the eve of the election that it had forced Iran to surrender, handing the Republicans a victory, he said.
他补充道：“但如果美国决策者得出结论，认为这一情景不会实现——就像40天的战争一样，伊朗将进行抵抗，战争将以更大的强度和地区后果持续下去——他们可能不愿意在选举前夕冒发动冲突的风险。”目前，德黑兰满足于看着它的两个敌人前往投票，赌注是国外的分裂将实现其武库未能达到的目标。但在伊朗权力走廊中，没有人指望靠选举获得拯救。
He added: “But if American decision-makers conclude that this scenario will not materialise – that, as in the 40-day war, Iran will resist and the war will drag on with greater intensity and regional consequences – they may not be willing to risk starting a conflict on the eve of the election.”For now, Tehran is content to watch two of its enemies march to the polls, wagering that division abroad will achieve what its arsenal has not. But no one in the Iranian corridors of power is counting on deliverance by ballot.
“我们准备好打仗，胜过准备好和平，”第三位接受《每日电讯报》采访的高级官员说。“无论发生什么。”
“We are ready for war more than peace,” the third senior official who spoke to The Telegraph said. “Whatever happens.”