凯投宏观表示，人工智能交易或许存在泡沫，或许没有，但无论发生什么，如果市场崩盘，仍有防御性领域可供避险。凯投宏观高级市场经济学家詹姆斯·赖利在9月初准确提出了对AI交易的看空观点，他在一份研究报告中称“AI股票繁荣正接近尾声”。如今，该公司认为，股市中的传统防御性板块——包括房地产和必需消费品——“仍然是最佳选择”，可在AI动量交易失速时充当避风港，凯投宏观在周四的一份研究报告中表示。
The artificial intelligence trade may or may not be in a bubble, but no matter what happens there are still defensive areas to hide in if the market bursts, according to Capital Economics. James Reilly, Capital Economics senior markets economist, correctly called out a bearish view on the AI trade in early September, saying in a research report that the "AI equity boom is nearing an end." Now the firm thinks that traditional defensive sectors in the stock market, including real estate and consumer staples "remain the best bet" to serve as sanctuaries in the event the AI momentum trade falters, Capital Economics said in a research note Thursday.
在最新分析中，凯投宏观预测，如果AI交易的空气继续缓慢泄漏，或者AI泡沫破裂，标普500指数最终将在2027年底前跌至6500点。这将意味着16%的跌幅。不过，据该公司称，在清算到来之前，“今年股市有望出现由科技股领涨的最后一轮上涨”。但“在未来12个月，防御性板块可能是避险之处”。如果AI繁荣转为萧条，凯投宏观将美国国债收益率视为至关重要的对冲力量。
In its latest analysis, Capital Economics forecasts that the S & P 500 will eventually fall to 6,500 by the end of 2027 if air continues to slowly leak out of the AI trade, or if the AI bubble bursts. That would equal a 16% decline. Final rally Before the reckoning, however, "a final rally in the stock market, led by tech stocks, is on the cards this year," according to the firm. But "over the next 12 months defensive sectors may be the place to hide." If the AI boom turns to bust, Capital Economics views U.S. Treasurys yields as a vital counterbalance.
该公司预计国债收益率将下降，推动债券价格上涨，并称自1995年以来，费城半导体指数（SOX）下跌35%或以上的八次情形中，10年期收益率每次都出现下降。凯投宏观表示，如果收益率下降，房地产将受益。该公司指出：“与能源和金融板块相比，当SOX抛售与收益率下降同时发生时，房地产的表现往往要好得多。”但即便如此，房地产“仍会下跌”，只是跌幅小于大盘。凯投宏观表示，更能“挺过AI泡沫破裂”的防御性板块是必需消费品。
The firm expects Treasury yields to drop, pushing bond prices higher, saying the 10-year yield fell all eight times since 1995 when the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index ( SOX ) index dropped 35% or more. If yields were to fall, real estate would benefit, Capital Economics said. "In contrast to energy and financials, it has tended to fare much better when SOX selloffs have coincided with falling yields," the firm noted. But even there, real estate "would still fall," albeit less than the market. An even better defensive sector to "ride out the AI bust" is consumer staples, Capital Economics said.
“在2000年初科技股见顶之后，该板块取得了不错的涨幅。”承压近来，押注AI的交易一直承压，原因是投资者担心Meta Platforms、微软、亚马逊和Alphabet等超大型科技公司正在AI基础设施（如数据中心和芯片）上投入数十亿美元资本，却看不到足够的投资回报。高企的资本支出一直在侵蚀超大规模云服务商的现金流和利润。
"That sector made good gains after the peak in tech stocks in early 2000." Under pressure The trade to capitalize on AI has been under pressure lately from investor concern that megacap tech companies like Meta Platforms , Microsoft , Amazon and Alphabet are spending billions in capital on AI infrastructure like data centers and chips without seeing an adequate return on their investments. Elevated capital expenditures have been eating into hyperscalers' cash flows and profits.
Alphabet周三晚些时候公布的财报令人失望，显示第三季度自由现金流为负。Facebook和Instagram的母公司Meta上周公布的最新财报显示自由现金流为负，同时上调了全年资本支出承诺的下限。与以往的科技股抛售不同，凯投宏观指出，能源和金融板块这一次不太可能同样抗跌。首先，这两个板块目前的表现“要好得多”，远胜于此前科技股抛售之前的时期。
Alphabet reported disappointing earnings late Wednesday that showed negative free cash flow in the third quarter. Facebook and Instagram parent Meta reported negative free cash flow in its latest earnings last week, while raising the bottom end of its full-year capital expenditure commitment. Unlike past tech selloffs, Capital Economics called out energy and financials as areas that are unlikely to hold up as well this time. For one thing, both groups "have done much better" now than they did in earlier periods before technology sold off.
凯投宏观表示：“但这并不是因为这些板块对AI尤其具有免疫力。相反，这是因为近年来反复出现的供应冲击（尤其是能源大宗商品）推高了能源价格，并相应地推高了美国国债收益率。”
"But this isn't because these sectors are particularly well insulated from AI," Capital Economics said. "Instead, it is because repeated supply shocks, especially for energy commodities, over recent years have lifted energy prices and, relatedly, Treasury yields."