非洲央行行长表示，其模型显示，在中东持续冲突引发的初步冲击消退后，目前的政策方针将能够把通胀率降至3%的目标水平。
Africa’s central bank chief said its models suggest its current policy approach will be able to bring inflation down to its 3% goal after the initial shocks triggered by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East fade.
莱塞贾·康亚戈周四在向意大利-南非工商会发表的书面讲话中说：“到目前为止，我们的建模表明，现行政策设定足以在初步冲击过去后使通胀率回到目标水平。我们仍坚定地专注于自身职责，并将根据需要采取行动，防止通胀进一步上升演变为根深蒂固的局面。”南非官员上月一致投票决定将借贷成本上调25个基点至7.25%，原因是伊朗和乌克兰战争推动的能源和化肥价格上涨再度抬头。
“So far, our modeling indicates that prevailing policy settings are sufficient to return inflation to target after the initial shock has passed,” Lesetja Kganyago said in a prepared speech delivered to the Italian-South African Chamber of Trade and Industries on Thursday. “We remain firmly focused on our mandate, and will act as needed to prevent higher inflation from becoming entrenched.”
康亚戈表示，虽然货币政策无法阻止燃料冲击造成的初步价格上涨，“但它必须确保通胀的暂时上升不会在预期、工资形成和更广泛的价格制定行为中根深蒂固”。
South African officials last month unanimously voted to raise borrowing costs by 25 basis points to 7.25% as higher energy and fertilizer prices spurred on by the wars in Iran and Ukraine resurfaced.
上月通胀率加快至4.5%，自3月份以来一直高于央行3%的目标。央行将于11月19日公布下一次利率决定。
While monetary policy cannot prevent the initial price increase caused by the fuel shock, “it must ensure that the temporary rise in inflation does not become entrenched in expectations, wage formation and broader price-setting behaviors,” Kganyago said. Inflation quickened to 4.5% last month and has been above the central bank’s 3% target since March.
这位行长还表示，南非正在迎来转机。此前多年低增长，在雅各布·祖马丑闻缠身的九年总统任期内，国家能力被掏空，政治经济中深层次、长期的功能失调使低增长根深蒂固。
The central bank will deliver its next interest-rate decision on Nov. 19. The governor also said South Africa is turning a corner after years of low growth, engrained by deep and prolonged dysfunction in the political economy as state capacity was hollowed out during the scandal-marred nine-year presidency of Jacob Zuma.
康亚戈表示：“如今，几项基础比几年前更加稳固。”其中包括电力供应的改善，以及该国在物流和市政服务等领域的改革。
“Several foundations are stronger today than they were only a few years ago,” Kganyago said. They include improved electricity supply and the country’s reforms in areas such as logistics and municipal services.
他表示，随着政府在遏制债务增长方面取得进展，财政信誉也有所提升。“我们已从信用评级下调转为上调。”上周，财政部长伊诺克·戈东瓒瓦在中期预算中宣布，南非债务占国内生产总值的比重已最终触顶，并在当前财政年度开始下降。
Fiscal credibility has also improved as the government has made progress in stopping debt growth, he said. “We have moved from credit ratings downgrades to upgrades.”Last week, Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana in his medium-term budget announced that South Africa’s debt as a percentage of gross domestic product has finally peaked and will start declining in the current fiscal year.
他还说，税收收入预计将超出先前预期，预算赤字将低于先前预测的3.9%国内生产总值。“这些进展应当提振信心、投资和增长，”克甘亚戈说。
He also said revenue collections were expected to outperform previous expectations and the budget deficit would be smaller than previously forecast at 3.9% of GDP. “These developments should lift confidence, investment and growth,” Kganyago said.