字号·· | 护眼
美国全国公共广播电台

以色列陷入政治僵局,接下来会发生什么?Israel is in a political deadlock. What comes next?

点「原文对照」整页切到原文,或双击某段只看那段的原文。

周四,以色列左翼活动人士在以色列赫兹利亚的亚沙尔党领袖加迪·艾森科特的住所外,呼吁组建一个包含阿拉伯政党的政府。David Goldman/美联社 隐藏图注 切换图注 i David Goldman/美联社Israeli left-wing activists call for a government with Arab parties outside Yashar party leader Gadi Eisenkot's residence in Herzliya, Israel, Thursday. David Goldman/AP hide caption toggle caption i David Goldman/AP

周四,在以色列海尔兹利亚的“前进党”领袖加迪·艾森科特(Gadi Eisenkot)的住所外,以色列左翼活动人士呼吁建立一个包容阿拉伯政党的政府。大卫·戈德曼/美联社特拉维夫,以色列——以色列的选举陷入了政治僵局,无论是现任总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡(Benjamin Netanyahu)还是其主要挑战者加迪·艾森科特,目前都没有明确的组阁途径。

Israeli left-wing activists call for a government with Arab parties outside Yashar party leader Gadi Eisenkot's residence in Herzliya, Israel, Thursday. David Goldman/AP TEL AVIV, Israel — Israel's election has produced a political deadlock, leaving neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his main challenger, Gadi Eisenkot, with a clear path to forming a government.

最终选举结果显示,反对党获得的席位多于内塔尼亚胡的右翼阵营。然而,作为中右翼前军事参谋长的艾森科特,若无主要由阿拉伯人组成的政党的支持,将无法达到执政多数——艾森科特的盟友在竞选期间曾多次排除这一选项。

The final results give opposition parties more seats than Netanyahu's right-wing bloc. But Eisenkot, a center-right former military chief of staff, cannot reach a governing majority without the support of predominantly Arab parties — an option Eisenkot's allies repeatedly ruled out during the campaign.

内塔尼亚胡领导的利库德集团获得了最多的选票,但其阵营同样未达到多数席位。支持其上一届政府的由右翼、极右翼和极端正统派政党组成的联盟,并未控制在以色列120席议会(即克尼塞特)中组建多数政府所需的61个席位。以下是接下来可能发生的事件以及组建新以色列政府的可能途径。以色列如何组建政府?

Netanyahu's Likud party received the most votes, but his bloc also falls short of a majority. The coalition of right-wing, far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties that supported his previous government does not control the 61 seats required for a majority in Israel's 120-seat parliament, known as the Knesset. Here is what happens next and the possible paths to a new Israeli government. How does Israel form a government?

在接下来的几天里,以色列总统将与入选议会的各政党领袖进行磋商。每个政党都将推荐其认为应该获得首次组阁机会的政党领袖。

In the next few days, Israel's president will consult with the leaders of every party elected to parliament. Each party will recommend the party leader it believes should be given the first opportunity to form a coalition.

总统无需选择最大政党的领袖。相反,总统会选择被认为最有可能组建执政联盟的候选人。

The president is not required to choose the leader of the largest party. Instead, the president selects the candidate considered most likely to assemble a governing coalition.

该候选人将获得28天的时间来争取至少61名议员的支持。总统可以给予最多14天的延长期限。如果组阁努力失败,总统可以将会晤机会交给另一位候选人来组建政府。

That candidate is given 28 days to secure the support of at least 61 lawmakers. The president may grant an extension of up to 14 days. If the effort fails, the president can give another candidate an opportunity to form a government.

这一过程可能需要数周、数月,或者以无人能够凑齐多数席位而告终。谁最有可能获得首次组阁机会?

The process could take weeks, or months, or end without anyone assembling a majority. Who is most likely to get the first opportunity to form a coalition?

根据选举结果,艾森科特似乎比内塔尼亚胡更有可能获得新当选议员最多的推荐。

Based on the election results, Eisenkot appears more likely than Netanyahu to receive the largest number of recommendations from newly elected lawmakers.

但这并不意味着身为政治新人的艾森科特将能够组建执政联盟。如果没有阿拉伯政党,他的政治阵营将缺乏多数席位,而他曾多次承诺不会组建依赖这些政党支持的执政联盟。阿拉伯人占总人口的21%,他们通常自称为以色列的巴勒斯坦公民。

But that does not mean Eisenkot — a relative newcomer to politics — will be able to form a coalition. His political bloc lacks a majority without the Arab-led parties and he has repeatedly promised not to form a coalition that depends on their support. They represent 21% of the population, who generally refer to themselves as Palestinian citizens of Israel.

艾森科特曾表示,阿拉伯政党在哈马斯以及加沙战争上的立场使他无法与他们共同执政——一些人拒绝认可消灭哈马斯的军事目标,或者拒绝谴责其为恐怖组织。他阵营中的其他领导人在选举前和选举后也发表了类似的声明。

Eisenkot has said the Arab parties' positions on Hamas and the war in Gaza prevent him from governing with them — some have refused to endorse the military goal of eliminating Hamas, or condemning it as a terrorist organization. Other leaders in his bloc made similar statements before and after the election.

内塔尼亚胡则面临着同一问题的另一种情况。他传统的盟友没有足够的席位让他重掌权力。可能的结果有哪些?一种可能性是内塔尼亚胡和艾森科特组建联合政府。

Netanyahu faces a different version of the same problem. His traditional coalition partners do not have enough seats to return him to power. What are the possible outcomes? One possibility is a unity government bringing together Netanyahu and Eisenkot.

以色列和一些美国媒体报道称,特朗普总统倾向于这种结果——尽管美国全国公共广播电台(NPR)尚未独立证实这些报道。联合政府可能会吸纳更多来自以色列政治中间派和右翼的温和政党。

Israeli and some U.S. media outlets have reported that President Trump favors such an outcome — although NPR has not independently confirmed the reports. A unity government would likely include more moderate parties from Israel's political center and right.

这样一个执政联盟可能会使以色列更容易就其地区优先事项与特朗普政府展开合作,这些事项包括加沙的重建以及与沙特阿拉伯达成潜在的关系正常化协议。

Such a coalition could make it easier for Israel to work with the Trump administration on its regional priorities, including the reconstruction of Gaza and a potential normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia.

但艾森科特此前已多次承诺,不会在由内塔尼亚胡领导的政府中任职。这两位领导人还必须解决关于谁来担任总理以及该职位是否会在两人之间轮换的问题。第二种可能性是组建一个得到阿拉伯政党支持的艾森科特政府。

But Eisenkot has repeatedly pledged not to serve in a government led by Netanyahu. The two leaders would also have to resolve questions about who would serve as prime minister and whether the position would rotate between them. A second possibility is an Eisenkot government supported by Arab parties.

艾森科特的阵营与阿拉伯政党加在一起,将拥有超过67个议席的舒适议会多数。但这样的大联合政府依然不太可能实现,因为艾森科特和他的盟友们已多次对此予以拒绝。

Together, Eisenkot's bloc and the Arab parties would command a comfortable parliamentary majority of more than 67 seats. But such a coalition remains unlikely because Eisenkot and his allies have repeatedly rejected it.

来自阿拉伯政党支持并不一定要求他们加入政府。他们可以在联盟外部支持少数派政府。但这种安排仍然与艾森科特及其几位潜在合作伙伴在竞选期间作出的承诺相矛盾。第三种可能性是再次举行选举。

Support from the Arab parties would not necessarily require them to join the government. They could support a minority government from outside the coalition. But that arrangement would still contradict the campaign promises made by Eisenkot and several of his potential partners. A third possibility is another election.

以色列总统敦促政治领导人避免让国家重新进行投票,特别是在刚举行了一场投票率创下几十年新高的大选之后。但如果没有任何候选人能够凑齐多数席位,再次选举仍然是一种可能。

Israel's president has urged political leaders to avoid sending the country back to the polls, particularly after an election that drew the highest turnout in decades. But if no candidate can assemble a majority, another election remains possible.

内塔尼亚胡可能认为,重新选举可能对他的阵营有利。如果阿拉伯选民断定主要由犹太人组成的反对党不会允许他们的代表参与政府,阿拉伯选民的投票率可能会下降。为了参加此次大选而从海外赶回来的自由派以色列人,也不太可能再次返回参与投票。第四种可能性是一个阵营说服对方阵营的议员倒戈投靠自己。

Netanyahu may believe a repeat election could work in his favor. Arab turnout could decline if Arab voters conclude that the predominantly Jewish opposition parties will not allow their representatives to participate in government. Liberal Israelis who traveled from overseas to vote in this election may also be less likely to return for another vote. A fourth possibility is that one bloc persuades lawmakers from the opposing camp to defect to their side.

根据目前的结果,这将会很困难。内塔尼亚胡需要吸引大约8名来自其阵营外部的议员。如果艾森科特继续排斥阿拉伯政党,他将需要大约13名倒戈议员——这一设想目前看来极不可能。在这场僵局中,反对派如何才能削弱内塔尼亚胡?

That would be difficult under the current results. Netanyahu would need to attract roughly eight lawmakers from outside his bloc. Eisenkot would need approximately 13 defectors if he continued to exclude the Arab parties — a scenario that currently appears highly unlikely. How can the opposition undermine Netanyahu during this stalemate?

在组建新政府之前,反对内塔尼亚胡的议会多数派可以在阿拉伯议员的支持下开始推进立法工作。

A parliamentary majority opposed to Netanyahu could begin advancing legislation before a new government is formed, with support from Arab lawmakers.

艾森科特的阵营正在考虑努力更换议长,这是一个决定议会立法议程的重要权力职位。

Eisenkot's bloc is considering an effort to replace the speaker of the Knesset, a powerful position that helps determine parliament's legislative agenda.

该阵营还希望推动立法,设立一个国家调查委员会,调查2023年10月7日哈马斯领导的袭击以色列之前发生的政治和安全失误。

The bloc also hopes to pass legislation establishing a state commission of inquiry into the political and security failures that preceded the Hamas-led attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023.

艾森科特的盟友也可能试图推翻内塔尼亚胡政府推进的立法,批评者称这些立法削弱了以色列的民主制度和司法独立。

Eisenkot's allies could also try to reverse legislation advanced by Netanyahu's government that critics say weakened Israel's democratic institutions and judicial independence.

这些步骤本身不会建立新政府。但它们将允许内塔尼亚胡的反对者在联盟谈判继续进行期间在议会中行使重要权力。与伊朗重启战事会影响政治谈判吗?

These steps would not, by themselves, establish a new government. But they would allow Netanyahu's opponents to exercise significant power in parliament while coalition negotiations continue. Could a renewed war with Iran affect the political negotiations?

内塔尼亚胡在选举之夜的讲话中表示,以色列仍需完成对伊朗的使命,并永久消除他所说的生存威胁。

In his election night speech, Netanyahu said Israel still had to complete its mission against Iran and permanently remove what he described as an existential threat.

同一天晚上,艾森科特警告内塔尼亚胡不要“为了你的政治需要而利用以色列的安全”。与伊朗重启战事,尤其是涉及美国的战事,可能会打乱反对派计划中的立法行动。这也可能增加公众和政治上对艾森科特的压力,迫使他加入内塔尼亚胡的紧急团结政府。

On the same night, Eisenkot warned Netanyahu not to use "Israel's security for your political needs." A renewed war with Iran, particularly one involving the United States, could disrupt the opposition's planned legislative moves. It could also increase public and political pressure on Eisenkot to enter an emergency unity government with Netanyahu.

10月7日袭击后也出现了类似的态势。艾森科特加入了内塔尼亚胡的紧急政府和战时内阁,八个月后辞职。艾森科特表示,内塔尼亚胡是根据政治考量而非以色列的国家利益做出决策。

A similar dynamic followed the Oct. 7 attack. Eisenkot joined Netanyahu's emergency government and war Cabinet, before resigning eight months later. Eisenkot said Netanyahu was making decisions based on political considerations rather than Israel's national interests.

以色列伊朗问题分析人士丹尼·西特里诺维奇表示,内塔尼亚胡有政治动机在新政府谈判进行期间重启战事。

Danny Citrinowicz, an Israeli analyst on Iran, said Netanyahu has a political incentive to renew the fighting while negotiations over a new government are underway.

“内塔尼亚胡绝对有开战的动机,”西特里诺维奇说。“他明白,在政府组建期间重启对伊朗的战争符合他的利益。当以色列出现紧急状况时,要求艾森科特加入某种团结政府的压力显然会加大。”本文由特拉维夫的丹尼尔·埃斯特林供稿。

"Netanyahu definitely has an incentive to go to war," Citrinowicz said. "He understands that returning to war against Iran while a government is being formed would serve his interests. When you have an emergency in Israel, the pressure on Eisenkot to enter some sort of unity government would obviously mount." Daniel Estrin in Tel Aviv contributed to this story

阅读媒体原文 ↗