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德意志银行:“AI美元”已然到来,避险属性不再确定Deutsche Bank Says ‘AI Dollar’ Is Here, Haven Bias Less Certain

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德意志银行表示,在人工智能驱动的市场回调期间,美元作为避险资产的传统地位不应被视为理所当然。

The dollar’s traditional status as a haven asset should not be taken for granted during an AI-driven market correction, according to Deutsche Bank AG.

该行全球外汇策略主管乔治·萨拉韦洛斯在周五发给客户的报告中表示,美元面临的风险“远比市场过去几周所定价的要更加双向”。他补充说,近期科技股与美元同时走弱的几轮行情支持了这一观点。

The risks to the dollar “are a lot more two-sided than the market has been pricing over the last few weeks,” said George Saravelos, the bank’s global head of FX strategy, in a note to clients Friday. Recent episodes of simultaneous weakness in tech stocks and the greenback support that view, he added.

原因之一是外国投资者对美国股票的风险敞口达到前所未有的规模。萨拉韦洛斯表示,目前海外投资者为美国全部经常账户赤字提供融资。但他们的持仓增长来自估值上涨,而非新增买入——德意志银行估计,外国人持有的逾20万亿美元美国股票中,约90%反映的是价格上涨。

One reason for that is the unprecedented scale of foreign exposure to US stocks. Saravelos said overseas investors currently finance the entire US current-account deficit. But their holdings have grown through valuation gains rather than fresh buying — Deutsche Bank estimates about 90% of the more than $20 trillion in US equities held by foreigners reflects price appreciation.

萨拉韦洛斯表示,另一个关键因素是股票对冲的动态。过去十年间,美国股票与美元呈反向相关性,这为不对冲汇率风险提供了巨大激励。但当股市冲击由美国自身引发时,这种关系会转为正相关,美元随股票一同下跌,从而加剧外国投资者的股票损失。

Another key factor, according to Saravelos, is equity-hedging dynamics. Over the past decade, US stocks and the greenback had an inverse correlation, providing a huge incentive for currency risk to be left unhedged. But when an equity shock is US-driven, that relationship flips to positive, with the dollar falling alongside stocks and adding to equity losses for foreign investors.

美元丧失避险属性的进一步确认,将是美国实际收益率与股市同时下跌。萨拉韦洛斯认为,今年利率与股市双双上涨,与市场对人工智能相关资本支出预期增强有关。

A further confirmation of the dollar losing its risk-off properties would be a simultaneous decline in US real yields and equities. Saravelos argues that the rise in both rates and stocks this year has been tied to stronger expectations for AI-related capital spending.

他指出:“美国实际收益率和股市同时走低,将与这些预期被下调相一致。”

“A move lower in both US real yields and equities would be consistent with these expectations being downgraded,” he noted.

萨拉韦洛斯表示,虽然他并不对人工智能生态系统的前景作出判断,但风险资产与美元之间关系的变化值得更多关注。报告称:“AI美元已经到来。”

Saravelos said that while he isn’t making a call on the outlook for the AI ecosystem, the changing relationship between risk assets and the dollar deserves more attention. “The AI dollar is here,” the report said.

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