金融市场正在战争、主权债务飙升和贸易紧张局势的重压下挣扎，全球各地均出现麻烦迹象——从日本和法国债券的抛售，到新兴市场货币的暴跌。如今，那笔曾帮助投资者保持乐观的交易也开始出现裂痕。
Financial markets are struggling under the weight of wars, soaring sovereign debt and trade tensions, with signs of trouble showing across the world — from the selloff in Japanese and French bonds to plunging emerging-market currencies. Now, the one trade that helped investors remain optimistic is starting to show cracks as well.
迄今为止，在华盛顿对商业采取轻触式监管的助推下，数万亿美元的人工智能支出热潮推动股市升至历史高位，并令市场预期全球经济今年将实现 3% 的健康增长。
So far, the multitrillion-dollar spending splurge on artificial intelligence, aided by Washington's light-touch approach to business, has propelled stock markets to record highs and raised expectations for the global economy to grow a healthy 3% this year.
但投资者开始对市场韧性感到不安。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普反复无常的贸易政策以及伊朗战争带来的能源冲击，在全球范围内重燃通胀，迫使央行面临加息压力。这与人工智能的资本投资激增及高负债政府叠加，正将借贷成本推至数十年高位。
But investors are getting nervous about market resiliency. US President Donald Trump's erratic trade policies and the Iran war's energy shock have revived inflation worldwide, putting pressure on central banks to raise interest rates. That, along with AI's capital-investment surge and highly indebted governments, is driving up borrowing costs to multidecade highs.
随着美国中期选举、动荡的地缘政治局势和央行政策在年内最后阶段带来更多不确定性，一些投资者和经济学家表示，全球经济面临的风险正在累积。
With US midterm elections, volatile geopolitics and central bank policy promising further uncertainty in the final stretch of the year, some investors and economists say risks to the global economy are mounting.
“利率上升似乎总能一次次嗅出并暴露最脆弱的环节，”前高盛首席经济学家、前英国财政大臣吉姆·奥尼尔表示。“敞口过大的国家和企业受损最重。”他称，若通胀不缓解，流入人工智能领域的巨额债务融资投资所带来的风险将加大。美国央行已连续逾半个十年未达通胀目标；欧元区通胀率为 3.8%，同样高于 2% 的目标。
"Rising rates always seem to sniff out and expose the most vulnerable time after time," said Jim O'Neill, former Goldman Sachs chief economist and former British Treasury minister. "Countries and businesses too exposed suffer the most." He said if inflation did not ease, the risks stemming from the vast amount of debt-financed investment flowing into the AI sector would grow. The US central bank has missed its inflation target for more than half a decade; euro-area inflation at 3.8% is also above its 2% target.
“从某种程度上说，令我惊讶的是，人工智能交易至今竟未出现更多波折，”奥尼尔说。
"In some ways, it's surprising to me there haven't been more bumps in the AI trade already," O'Neill said.
市场紧张情绪在 10 月突然显现，投资者抛售人工智能股票，涌入避险债券。
Market jitters showed up abruptly in October, when investors rushed out of AI stocks and into safe-haven bonds.
上个月，以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数市值蒸发超过2万亿美元，大型科技公司的财报加剧了投资者对投入的现金能否足够快地产生回报的审视。一些科技公司债券的保险成本飙升，部分拟建数据中心项目难以融资，从韩国、中国到美国的科技股纷纷暴跌。
More than $2 trillion in market value was wiped from the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 last month, as Big Tech's earnings intensified investor scrutiny of whether the cash invested can generate returns quickly enough. The cost of insuring bonds of some tech companies surged, some proposed data center projects struggled to raise money, and technology stocks from South Korea and China to the US tumbled.
投资者涌向债券市场。收益率与价格呈反向变动，从多十年高位回落，作为全球借贷成本风向标的基准10年期美国国债收益率在10月22日下跌近20个基点，创下2023年初以来最大单日跌幅。
Investors flocked to bonds. Yields, which move inversely to price, fell from multidecade highs, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury , which guides borrowing costs globally, falling almost 20 basis points on October 22, its biggest daily fall since early 2023.
10年期收益率仍徘徊在5%左右，一些投资者视这一关口为对更广泛金融稳定的风险。在人工智能建设热潮不是主要驱动力的地区，压力已显现。
The 10-year yield is still hovering around 5%, a threshold some investors see as a risk to broader financial stability. Strains were already showing up in parts of the world where the AI buildout has been less of a driving force.
在法国，债券收益率飙升至2012年欧元区债务危机以来的水平，导致政府几乎没有余地回应走上街头抗议者的诉求，这场骚乱是多年来最严重的民间动荡。
In France, bond yields soared to levels last seen during the 2012 euro zone debt crisis, leaving the government with little room to address demands from protesters who have taken to the streets in the worst civil unrest in years.
在日本，这个依赖能源进口的经济体，债券收益率近期触及30年高点。当局面临加快加息的压力，这破坏了东京寻求追加支出的政策目标，并可能颠覆全球资本流动。
In Japan, whose economy is dependent on energy imports, bond yields recently hit 30-year peaks. Authorities are under pressure to raise rates faster, undermining Tokyo’s policy goals that called for additional spending and possibly upending global capital flows.
“出现了一些事物崩塌的迹象，”管理逾1万亿美元资产的富达国际首席投资组合经理迈克·里德尔表示，他指出了法国和澳大利亚的麻烦，澳大利亚房地产市场正处于几十年来最严重的低迷之中。
"There are some signs of things breaking," said Mike Riddell, a lead portfolio manager at Fidelity International, which manages over $1 trillion worth of assets, pointing to troubles in France and Australia, where the housing market is in the throes of the worst downturn in decades.
里德尔补充说，德国债券——同样被视为避风港——变得更具吸引力。
German bonds , also considered a safe haven, have become more attractive, Riddell added.
美国经济学家保罗·克鲁格曼表示，持续居高不下的通胀引发大幅加息、政府债券收益率上升以及人工智能繁荣出现裂痕，是美国经济面临的主要担忧。
US economist Paul Krugman said persistently elevated inflation that prompts significant rate increases, rising government bond yields and cracks in the AI boom are major concerns for the US economy.
“当前经济存在令人担忧的方面，可能预示着即将到来的危机，”克鲁格曼在10月25日于在线通讯平台Substack发布的专栏文章中写道。
"There are troubling aspects of the current economy that could potentially be harbingers of the crisis to come," Krugman wrote in an October 25 column on online newsletter platform Substack.
白宫发言人马修·米德尔顿表示，特朗普政府致力于保持美国在人工智能领域的领导地位，推动收入增长并提振整体经济的生产率。
White House spokesperson Matthew Middleton said the Trump administration is committed to maintaining the US leadership in AI, fueling revenue growth and driving productivity across the economy.
诚然，投资者保持乐观的理由有很多。过去两年，衰退预警被证明是错误的。欧洲经济数据表现出的韧性超出预期，劳动力市场也保持稳定。
To be sure, there are many reasons for investors to remain optimistic. Over the past two years, recession warnings have proven wrong. Europe’s economic data has proved more resilient than expected, and labour markets, too, have been stable.
盈利同样强劲。据伦敦证券交易所集团（LSEG）数据，在美国，迄今已公布第三季度业绩的标普500指数成分股公司中，有84%的业绩超过了市场一致预期。
Earnings are also strong. In the US, 84% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported results so far in the third quarter have beaten consensus estimates, according to LSEG data.
然而，这种韧性在很大程度上归功于人工智能支出。据丹麦银行估计，所谓的“超大规模企业”——半打美国科技巨头——明年有望在该领域投资1.2万亿美元，相当于欧洲所有公司投资总和。这还不包括这些科技巨头今年预计将投入的约9000亿美元。
Much of that resilience, however, has been due to AI spending. The so-called hyperscalers — half a dozen US tech firms — are poised to invest $1.2 trillion next year in that buildout, or as much as all of Europe's companies combined, Danske Bank estimates. That's on top of an estimated $900 billion those tech firms are forecast to spend this year.
科技和人工智能股票占标普500指数（.SPX）的40%以上，并贡献了该指数过去五年约70%涨幅的大部分。虽然大盘标普500指数从10月初的高点回落了3%，因为投资者减持了人工智能板块，但成分股对利率更敏感的罗素2000小盘股指数（.RUT）较8月高点已下跌近8%。
Tech and AI stocks compose over 40% of the S&P 500 (.SPX) and account for much of the index's 70% rise over the past five years. While the big-cap S&P has lost 3% from the early October peak as investors have pulled back from AI, the Russell 2000 small-cap index (.RUT), whose companies are more rate-sensitive, is down nearly 8% from its August peak.
“我特别注意到领涨面的狭窄，”兴业银行全球策略师阿尔伯特·爱德华兹表示，他因预测1997年亚洲金融危机而闻名。
"I particularly note the narrowness of the leadership,” said Societe Generale global strategist Albert Edwards, who is credited with calling the 1997 Asian financial crisis.
“我喜欢对温斯顿·丘吉尔名言的改编：‘从未有股市如此欠这么少数人的这么多债，’”自称“超级空头”的爱德华兹说。一些分析师表示，如果没有人工智能方面的支出，鉴于伊朗战争导致能源价格飙升，美国经济本可能已经陷入衰退，并拖累其他经济体。
“I like the adaption of the Winston Churchill quote: 'Never have stocks owed so much to so few'," said Edwards, a self-described “uber bear." Without AI spending, some analysts say the US economy could have already slipped into recession and dragged down others with it, given the surge in energy prices due to the Iran war.
对于在2008年危机期间担任联邦存款保险公司主席的希拉·贝尔来说，存在着与那次崩盘前夕相似的预警信号，其中包括金融业部分领域贷款的爆发式增长，其商业模式现在面临因利率上升而受到威胁的风险。
For Sheila Bair, who chaired the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation during the 2008 crisis, there are warning signs similar to the run-up to that collapse, including the explosive growth in lending by parts of the financial sector whose business model now risks being threatened by rates moving higher.
“你看到了杠杆的累积，以及人工智能公司现在更多地依赖债务来为其雄心提供资金，”贝尔说，并补充称她看到了显著的脆弱性。
"You have a buildup of leverage and AI companies that are relying a lot more on debt now to finance their ambitions," said Bair, adding she sees significant fragilities.
“我也担心如果我们再次遭遇危机，缺乏财政火力，因为我们实在是太捉襟见肘了。”这场已经拖延数月的伊朗战争扰乱了石油供应，推高了油价，加剧了当前的经济脆弱性。油价达到每桶105美元，今年以来已上涨近75%。特朗普发出信号称，美国和以色列可能在中期选举后重启对伊朗的袭击。
"I also worry about the lack of fiscal firepower if we have another crisis because we're just so strapped." The Iran war, which has dragged on for months, has disrupted oil supplies and sent prices soaring, adding to current economic fragility. At $105 a barrel, oil is up almost 75% so far this year. Trump has signalled the US and Israel could restart attacks on Iran after the midterms.
从印度尼西亚到菲律宾，一些新兴市场货币触及历史低位，因为原油成本飙升，迫使它们的央行加息。
From Indonesia to the Philippines, some emerging-market currencies have hit record lows as the cost of crude oil has surged, forcing their central banks to raise rates.
英国央行在其7月金融稳定报告中警告称，不可预测的全球环境增加了发生额外大规模全球冲击的可能性，这些冲击“可能相互作用，增加其综合影响”。如果发生这种情况，债务缠身的政府将拥有少得多的火力来应对任何重大衰退的经济和社会后果。根据国际金融协会的数据，全球债务总额超过350万亿美元，创历史新高。这一数字几乎是全球经济规模的三倍。
In its July financial stability report, the Bank of England warned that the unpredictable global environment raises the likelihood of additional large global shocks that "could interact with one another, increasing their combined impact." Should that happen, debt-laden governments would have far less firepower to deal with the economic and social fallout of any major downturn. Total global debt stands at over $350 trillion, a record, according to the Institute of International Finance. That figure is almost three times the size of the global economy.
传统盟友间当前出现的裂痕，可能使主要经济体难以像2008年全球金融危机期间那样，齐心协力推出救助方案和货币刺激政策，Fordham Global Foresight创始人兼地缘政治战略师蒂娜·福德汉姆表示。她称，若缺乏协调，如今发生2008年级别的事件可能引发全球性萧条。
Current fissures among traditional alliances may make it more difficult for leading economies to come together as they did with rescue packages and monetary stimulus during the 2008 global financial crisis, said Tina Fordham, founder and geopolitical strategist at Fordham Global Foresight. With less coordination, a 2008-level event now could trigger a global depression, she said.
若AI支出出现疲软，冲击波可能波及全球。最新的美国财政部国际资本流动数据显示，外国投资者对美国市场敞口巨大；他们8月净买入美国证券近2800亿美元，创下单月纪录。
Should AI spending falter, the shockwaves could ripple worldwide. Foreign investors are heavily exposed to the US market; their net purchases of US securities jumped to nearly $280 billion in August, a record for a single month, the latest Treasury International Capital data shows.
福德汉姆援引亿万富翁投资者沃伦·巴菲特关于市场风险的名言：只有退潮时，才会发现谁在裸泳。她说：“退潮的是AI。”
Fordham referred to billionaire investor Warren Buffett's famous remark about market risks: it is only when the tide goes out that one discovers who has been swimming naked. "The tide is AI," she said.