10月28日：投资者长期以来将美元视为市场下跌时的避风港，但外资追逐人工智能热潮带来的回报，可能会在交易回吐时削弱这一避险角色。
Oct 28 : Investors have long treated the US dollar as a refuge when markets fall, but foreign money chasing returns from the AI boom could weaken that safe-haven role if the trade unwinds.
外资涌入美国大盘股、超大规模企业债券和电网基础设施。这使得美元成为一种日益拥挤的押注，押注的是美国的卓越表现，其支撑来自更快的增长、更高的收益率以及外资对美国资产持续的需求。
Foreign capital has poured in to US mega-cap equities, hyperscaler corporate bonds and power-grid infrastructure. That has made the dollar an increasingly crowded bet on American exceptionalism, backed by faster growth, higher yields and persistent foreign demand for US assets.
但如果人工智能叙事受挫，美元的避险地位可能会与其日益增强的风险敏感型资产属性发生碰撞，后者越来越多地由价格敏感型投资者持有。股市持续抛售可能导致投资者抛售美国资产，从而可能淹没对美元的避险需求。
But if the AI narrative stumbles, the dollar's safe-haven status could collide with its growing role as a risk-sensitive asset owned increasingly by price-sensitive investors. A sustained selloff in stocks could lead investors to sell US assets, potentially drowning out the safe-haven demand for the currency.
Nomura（野村证券）G10外汇策略主管Dominic Bunning表示：“如果人工智能交易回吐，‘美元是否会像过去那样以同样的方式受益，这一点不那么清楚了。’”外汇流向发出风暴预警 上周提供了一个早期预警。当人工智能估值承压时，避险资金流向青睐日元和瑞郎，而非美元。美元仅勉强兑欧元录得微薄涨幅，主要是因为单一货币受到法国内乱担忧的拖累。
If the AI trade unwinds, "it's not as clear the dollar benefits in the same way it would have done in the past," said Dominic Bunning, head of G10 FX strategy at Nomura. STORM WARNING ON FOREX FLOWS Last week offered an early warning. When AI valuations came under pressure, haven flows favored the Japanese yen and Swiss franc over the dollar. The greenback managed to eke out modest gains against the euro, mainly due to the single currency being dented by concerns over French civil unrest.
Convera首席外汇及宏观策略师Kevin Ford表示：“当人工智能交易受到审视时，人工智能交易与美元之间的关系变得更加清晰可见。”
"The relationship between the AI trade and the dollar has become much more visible when the AI trade comes under scrutiny," said Kevin Ford, lead FX and macro strategist at Convera.
外资流入美国股市处于纪录高位，而外国直接投资却滞后。因此，大量资金来自机构配置者，他们可能在重新评估美国增长、利率或科技股估值时买入或卖出。
Foreign flows into US equities are at a record, while foreign direct investment has lagged. As a result, much of the capital is coming from institutional allocators that may buy or sell when they reassess US growth, rates, or tech valuations.
富国银行全球外汇策略主管埃里克·纳尔逊将这些配置比作主导新兴市场的“热钱”流动。分析师表示，人工智能热潮强化了对美国经济增长更强劲、通胀更坚挺和利率更高的预期，推高了美元和美国国债收益率。
Erik Nelson, global head of FX strategy at Wells Fargo, likens these allocations to the "hot money" flows that dominate emerging markets. The AI boom has reinforced expectations of stronger US growth, firmer inflation and higher rates, lifting the dollar alongside Treasury yields, analysts said.
“整个人工智能交易导致美国利率重新定价走高，进而引发美元反弹，”加拿大帝国商业银行资本市场外汇策略师诺亚·巴法姆表示。
"The whole AI trade caused US rates to reprice higher, which has caused the dollar to rally," said Noah Buffam, FX strategist at CIBC Capital Markets.
如果回报令人失望，平仓可能冲击股票、信贷和利率，使美元在三个方面变得脆弱。
If returns disappoint, an unwind could hit equities, credit and rates, leaving the dollar vulnerable on three fronts.
疲软的增长可能迫使美联储降息，削弱美元的收益率优势。国内投资放缓将刺破“美国例外论”叙事。机构对美国公司债券和股票需求的消退将削弱一个主要的结构性支撑来源。
Weaker growth could force the Federal Reserve to cut rates, eroding the dollar's yield advantage. Slower domestic investment would puncture the exceptionalism narrative. And fading institutional demand for US corporate bonds and equities would weaken a major source of structural support.
到目前为止，投资者一直愿意逢低买入，这表明任何持续的疲软都可能是一个需要数月甚至数年的过程。
So far, investors have been willing to buy dips, suggesting that any sustained weakness could be a process taking months or years.
互联网泡沫的教训 纳尔逊表示，单纯的股市崩盘不会自动拖垮美元。纳斯达克指数在2000年3月见顶后，美元坚挺了近两年，直到美国信贷市场在世通公司等倒闭以及全球增长复苏等其他因素影响下承压，美元才开始走弱。
THE DOTCOM LESSON An equity rout alone would not automatically sink the dollar, Nelson said. After the Nasdaq peaked in March 2000, the dollar stayed firm for nearly two years before cracking when US credit markets came under stress following collapses such as WorldCom's, and due to other factors such as a recovery in global growth.
但这一次人工智能建设更以美国为中心。纳尔逊表示，实际贸易加权美元已连续12年保持在1973年以来的长期平均水平之上，创下有记录以来最长纪录。外资流入也比2000年更集中于股票和公司债券，而外国直接投资则较弱。
But the AI buildout is more US-centric. Nelson said the real trade-weighted dollar has stayed above its long-run average, measured since 1973, for 12 consecutive years, the longest stretch on record. Foreign inflows are also more concentrated in equities and corporate bonds than in 2000, while foreign direct investment is weaker.
如果基础设施投资无法获得回报，信用利差可能扩大，迫使人工智能公司削减资本支出。这可能波及经济，削弱对工业设备、硬件和能源的需求。
If infrastructure investments fail to pay off, credit spreads could widen, forcing AI companies to curb capital spending. That could ripple through the economy, softening demand for industrial equipment, hardware and energy.
对AI领域风险较高板块的担忧，例如包括CoreWeave在内的高负债“新云”公司，已在最近几周导致信用违约互换利差大幅扩大，增加了股市的压力。
Concerns about riskier parts of the AI universe, such as heavily indebted neocloud companies including CoreWeave, have already widened credit default swap spreads sharply in recent weeks, adding to pressure on stocks.
“当我们观察信用违约互换时，可以看到边缘出现松动，”加拿大丰业银行首席外汇策略师肖恩·奥斯本表示。
"We can see this fraying around the edges when we look at credit default swaps," said Shaun Osborne, chief FX strategist at Scotiabank.
与2000年科技股高峰时期的盈余相比，华盛顿目前也面临巨额财政赤字。这使得在不扰乱债务市场的情况下，实施逆周期刺激的空间变小。
Washington also runs a large fiscal deficit now, compared with a surplus near the 2000 tech peak. That leaves less room for counter-cyclical stimulus without unsettling debt markets.
压力下的敏感性 对于纳尔逊而言，关键信号不仅仅是美股科技股是否下跌，而是压力是否演变为美国特有的信用和增长问题，并进而改变市场对美联储政策的预期。在这样的情景下，日元可能会以美元为代价而受益，这种转变可能会对本已可能处于压力之下的市场产生进一步连锁影响。
SENSITIVITY UNDER STRESS For Nelson, the key signal is not simply whether US tech shares fall, but whether stress becomes a US-specific credit and growth problem that can also change expectations for Fed policy. In such a scenario the yen would likely benefit at the dollar's expense, a shift that could have further ramifications for markets that would already likely be under stress.
这并不意味着美元下跌是板上钉钉的结论。一旦冲击严重到足以引发对美元融资的争夺，美元可能会在初期走强。在2008年和2020年3月，投资者争相获取美元以偿还美元计价负债，形成了强劲但短暂的买盘。
That is not to say a dollar decline is a foregone conclusion. A shock severe enough to trigger a scramble for dollar funding could initially strengthen the dollar. In 2008 and March 2020, investors rushed to obtain dollars to meet dollar-denominated liabilities, creating a powerful but temporary bid.
无论如何，一些投资者认为，美元已重新成为主要风险因素，其重要程度自2025年4月美国总统唐纳德·特朗普宣布全面关税引发抛售以来最为显著。
In any case, some investors believe the dollar is back on the table as a major risk factor in the most significant way since the rout caused by US President Donald Trump's announcement of sweeping tariffs in April 2025.
“全球投资者对美元大幅重新定价或抛售的敏感度很高，”纳尔逊表示。“随着我们进入2027年，这是美元的一个脆弱性，我认为值得关注。”
"The sensitivity of global investors to a large re-rating or selloff in the dollar is substantial," Nelson said. "As we go into '27, it's a vulnerability for the dollar that I think is worth watching.”