字号·· | 护眼
路透社

欧元区增长再次超出预期Euro zone growth beats projections again

点「原文对照」整页切到原文,或双击某段只看那段的原文。

2025年2月17日,德国汉堡港“阿尔滕韦尔德”装载码头,一艘集装箱船停靠在码头。路透社/法比安·比默/资料图片A container ship is seen at the loading terminal "Altenwerder" in the port of Hamburg, Germany, February 17, 2025. REUTERS/Fabian Bimmer/File Photo

欧盟统计局周五公布的数据显示,欧元区经济上一季度增速快于预期,在昂贵能源的逆风面前保持了韧性,得益于投资和消费的支撑。

The euro zone economy grew quicker than predicted last quarter, Eurostat data showed on Friday, remaining resilient to headwinds from expensive energy as investments and consumption held up.

第三季度经济增速从第二季度异常强劲的0.6%放缓至0.4%,高于路透社经济学家调查中预期的0.2%。

Economic growth slowed to 0.4% in the third quarter from an exceptionally strong 0.6% in the second quarter, above expectations for 0.2% in a Reuters poll of economists.

与上年同期相比,欧元区经济扩张了1.3%,高于预期的1.1%,大体与其潜在增速一致,即经济在无需刺激的情况下可实现的水平。

Compared to a year earlier, the euro zone economy expanded by 1.3%, above expectations for 1.1%, broadly in line with its potential, a level an economy can achieve without stimulus.

在欧元区主要经济体中,德国环比增长0.2%,西班牙和荷兰增长0.6%,意大利持平,而法国经济收缩0.1%。

Among the euro zone's biggest economies, Germany expanded by 0.2% on the quarter, Spain and the Netherlands by 0.6%, while Italy was unchanged and the French economy contracted by 0.1%.

尽管欧元区的增长率不及美国扩张幅度的一半,但该数据仍远超今年早些时候伊朗战争爆发后做出的悲观预测。

Although the bloc's growth rate is less than half of the expansion produced by the United States, the figure still far exceeds gloomy projections made after the start of the Iran war earlier in the year.

欧洲是能源净进口方,油价飙升会立即抑制增长、压缩企业利润率并恶化该集团的贸易条件。

Europe is a net energy importer and oil price surges immediately reduce growth, compress corporate margins and worsen the bloc's terms of trade.

但在不确定性中,欧元区却意外地表现优于预期,因在人工智能、国防和基础设施上的大量支出提振了投资,强劲的外部需求助力工业,家庭持续消费,降低了本已较高的储蓄率。

But the euro zone has been a surprise outperformer amid the uncertainty as heavy spending on AI, defence and infranstructure boosted investment, robust foreign demand helped industry and households kept on spending, reducing their already high savings rate.

这导致全年增长预期屡次上调,大多数预测机构现在预计今年扩张将超过1%,且2027年将加速增长。

This has led to a string of growth upgrades throughout the year and most forecasters now see expansion above 1% this year and an acceleration in 2027.

不过,周五的数据在一定程度上受到爱尔兰异常的5.5%季度增长率的扭曲,该增幅足以显著拉高欧元区整体数值。

Friday's figures were, however, skewed somewhat by Ireland's exceptional 5.5% quarterly growth rate, which is large enough to meaningfully lift the euro zone figure.

鉴于大型跨国企业(特别是制药企业)为税务原因设址于此,爱尔兰GDP容易出现异常波动。

Irish GDP is prone to exceptional volatility given the presence of large multinational firms, particularly in pharmaceuticals, which have located there for tax reasons.

尽管欧元区今年表现出韧性,但包括欧洲央行在内的部分机构担心,其好运可能很快就会耗尽。过去两个月,全球借贷成本大幅上升,这将拖累国内外经济增长。

While the euro zone has been resilient this year, some, including the European Central Bank, fear that its luck could soon run out. Borrowing costs have increased sharply across the globe in the past two months and this will slow economic growth both at home and abroad.

此外,能源成本再度飙升也将抑制产出,鉴于天然气价格跃升至2022年初俄罗斯对乌克兰开战以来的最高水平,即便是家庭乐观情绪也可能烟消云散。

In addition, a renewed surge in energy costs will also dampen output and even household optimism may evaporate given a jump in natural gas costs to their highest levels since the start of Russia's war in Ukraine in early 2022.

这一轮能源价格新涨势很可能迫使欧洲央行再次加息,最早可能在12月,进一步拖缓增长。

This fresh energy price jump is likely to force the ECB to raise interest rates again, possibly as soon as December, slowing growth even further.

阅读媒体原文 ↗