法兰克福——德国季度增长超出预期，通胀大幅放缓，原因是伊朗战争推高的能源价格压力有所缓解，这增强了10月30日人们对欧洲最大经济体持续复苏的希望。
FRANKFURT - Germany’s quarterly growth beat forecasts and inflation slowed sharply as energy price pressures fuelled by the Iran war eased, boosting hopes on Oct 30 of a sustained recovery for Europe’s biggest economy.
这些官方数据对总理弗里德里希·默茨来说将是一种宽慰。默茨的民调支持率一直低迷，因为他重振这个制造业强国的计划进展缓慢。
The official data will come as a relief for Chancellor Friedrich Merz, whose popularity ratings have been in the doldrums as his plans to revive the manufacturing powerhouse have moved only slowly.
在经历了数年的停滞之后，德国经济正试图重新站稳脚跟。此前，中国从德国的重要市场转变为激烈的工业竞争对手、能源成本飙升以及根深蒂固的结构性问题，给德国经济造成了沉重打击。
The economy is seeking to get back on its feet after several years of stagnation, hit hard by China’s shift from a key market to a fierce industrial competitor, surging energy costs and deep-rooted structural problems.
荷兰国际集团经济学家卡斯滕·布热斯基对第三季度0.2%的增长表示欢迎，这一增速高于分析师的预期。他表示，德国“有望实现自2022年以来最好的增长表现”。
Hailing third-quarter growth of 0.2%, which was above analyst estimates, ING economist Carsten Brzeski said Germany “is on track for its best growth performance since 2022.
“有人会说，老狗还有活力。”德国联邦统计局表示，在7月至9月期间，经济受到公共和私人支出上升的支撑，尽管出口较2026年上半年“非常强劲的势头”明显走弱，投资也有所下降。
“Some would say there’s life in the old dog yet.”In the July-September period, the economy was supported by rising public and private spending, though exports weakened noticeably from “the very dynamic trend” seen in the first half of 2026 and investment also declined, statistics office Destatis said.
德国经济超过了法国。法国本季度经济萎缩0.1%，而当时人们对该国公共财政的糟糕状况的担忧已经在加剧。
Germany eclipsed France’s economy, which shrank 0.1% in the quarter at a time when worries were already growing about the dire state of the country’s public finances.
但德国落后于由21个国家组成的欧元区整体表现，欧元区经济增长0.4%，好于预期。“风险日益增加”默茨在2025年赢得选举后，在国防和基础设施方面大举增加公共支出，这将在今年为经济提供重大推动。
But it was behind the 21-country euro zone as a whole which expanded by a better-than-forecast 0.4%. ‘Growing risks’Germany’s public spending blitz on defence and infrastructure, unleashed by Merz after he won elections in 2025, is providing a major boost to the economy this year.
德国经济也比许多人此前担心的更好地承受了美国对伊朗战争以及能源价格上涨带来的冲击。
The economy has also withstood the fallout from the US war on Iran and higher energy prices better than many had feared.
尽管电价上涨对某些行业造成了压力，但其他行业——如化工业——则从中受益，因为业务从一些受供应链问题打击更严重的全球竞争对手那里转移了过来。不过，德国GDP的扩张略弱于今年前两个季度。
While higher power prices have weighed on some sectors, others – such as chemicals – benefited as business was redirected from some of their global rivals who were harder hit by supply chain woes. Still, the GDP expansion was slightly weaker than in the first two quarters of the year.
部分制造商，尤其是石油产品等行业的企业，因夏季干旱和热浪导致莱茵河等关键河流水位下降引发运输问题而受到冲击。
Some manufacturers, particularly in sectors like petroleum products, were hit by transport problems due to lower water levels on key rivers, particularly the Rhine, during the summer’s drought and heatwaves.
继政府推出燃油补贴以帮助因美国对伊朗战争引发的成本上升而受冲击的车主后，10月通胀率放缓至2.8%——低于上月的3.3%。
Inflation in October slowed to 2.8% - from 3.3% in the previous month - following the government’s introduction of fuel subsidies to help motorists hit by higher costs triggered by the US war on Iran.
尽管如此，降幅仍大于预期，经济学家指出各方面的压力均在缓解。剔除波动较大的食品和能源成本后的核心通胀率从9月的2.4%下降至2.1%。
Still the fall was bigger than expected, and economists noted that pressures were easing across the board. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, dipped to 2.1% from 2.4% in September.
但德国公共贷款机构KfW的经济学家斯特凡妮·舍恩瓦尔德警告称，未来存在“日益增长的价格风险”。
But Stephanie Schoenwald, an economist with German public lender KfW, warned there were “growing price risks” ahead.
她说：“近几周天然气和石油价格再次大幅上涨——受持续冲突和库存水平下降驱动。”
“Gas and oil prices have risen significantly again in recent weeks – driven by ongoing conflicts and lower stock levels,” she said.