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欧洲经济摆脱伊朗战争带来的能源冲击,第三季度实现温和增长Europe's economy brushes off energy shock from Iran war, shows moderate growth in Q3

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2026年10月29日星期四,德国法兰克福,欧洲中央银行的一处入口。(美联社照片/迈克尔·普罗布斯特)An entrance of the European Central Bank photographed in Frankfurt, Germany, Thursday, Oct. 29, 2026. (AP Photo/Michael Probst)

欧洲经济在第三季度保持了温和增长,尽管美伊战争导致油价上涨,国内生产总值仍比上一季度增长了0.4%。

Europe’s economy persevered with moderate growth in the third quarter despite higher oil prices from the US-Iran war, as gross domestic product increased by 0.4% over the quarter before.

大卫·麦克休 德国法兰克福 —— 欧洲经济在第三季度保持了温和增长,尽管美伊战争导致油价上涨,国内生产总值仍比上一季度增长了0.4%。

DAVID MCHUGH FRANKFURT, Germany — Europe’s economy persevered with moderate growth in the third quarter despite higher oil prices from the U.S.-Iran war as gross domestic product increased by 0.4% over the quarter before.

欧盟统计局周五公布的数据显示,这21个使用欧元货币的欧盟成员国经济增速好于市场分析师预期的0.2%。根据欧盟统计局的数据,与去年同期相比,这21个使用欧元的国家在7至9月期间经济增长了1.3%。

The figure released Friday for the 21 European Union member countries that use the euro currency was better than the 0.2% expected by market analysts. Compared to the same quarter a year ago, the economy of the 21 countries using the euro grew by 1.3% in the July-September period, according to EU statistics agency Eurostat.

凯投宏观副首席欧元区经济学家杰克·艾伦-雷诺兹表示,持续的增长表明,“由于伊朗战争,家庭和企业并未削减开支。”

The continued growth shows that “households and businesses have not pared back their spending due to the Iran war,” said Jack Allen-Reynolds, deputy chief eurozone economist at Capital Economics.

牛津经济研究院高级经济学家保罗·格里尼亚尼写道:“总而言之,欧元区经济在地缘政治动荡和通胀环境恶化的情况下依然保持韧性。”

“All in all, the eurozone economy remains resilient amid geopolitical turmoil and a worsening inflationary environment,” wrote Paolo Grignani, senior economist at Oxford Economics.

尽管存在“令人担忧的迹象”,即较高油价正蔓延至其他行业。这些所谓的二轮效应——即高油价开始影响整个经济体的工资和物价——将支持欧洲央行进一步加息。

That is despite “worrying signs” that higher oil prices are spreading to other sectors. Those so-called second-round effects — where high oil prices start to influence wages and prices throughout the economy — would support higher interest rates from the European Central Bank.

通胀率为3.8%,仍高于欧洲央行设定的2%目标。欧洲央行周四的政策会议决定维持利率不变。这意味着欧洲央行可能在12月的下次会议上加息以抑制通胀,即使增长依然温和且在成员国间分布不均,也会给经济带来更高的借贷成本。

Inflation of 3.8% remains above the 2% target set out by the ECB which left rates unchanged at its policy meeting Thursday. That means the ECB may raise rates at its next meeting in December to cool inflation, imposing higher borrowing costs on the economy even as growth remains modest and unevenly distributed among member countries.

作为欧元区最大经济体,德国尽管面临高能源价格和低水位扰乱商业活动的逆风,经济仍增长了0.2%。然而,法国经济收缩了0.1%,因如何解决过大预算赤字的政治僵局持续拖累企业信心。表现较强的经济体是西班牙、荷兰和爱沙尼亚,增速均为0.6%。欧元区增长数据因爱尔兰增长5.5%而出现扭曲,爱尔兰数据波动较大,因为该国是跨国科技和制药公司的所在地,这些公司的全球活动会影响数据。若剔除爱尔兰,增长率为0.2%。

Germany, the largest of the euro economies, saw growth of 0.2% despite headwinds from high energy prices and low river levels that disrupted commerce. France, however, shrank by 0.1% as a political deadlock over how to address an outsized budget deficit continues to weigh on business confidence. Stronger performers were Spain, the Netherlands and Estonia with 0.6% The eurozone growth figure was distorted by an increase of 5.5% in Ireland, where figures are volatile because it is host to multinational tech and pharmaceutical companies whose global activities can influence the figures. Excluding Ireland, growth was 0.2%.

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