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内塔尼亚胡和艾森科特均未获多数,各方目光聚焦以色列总统赫尔佐格All eyes are on Israel President Herzog as Netanyahu, Eisenkot fall short of majority

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以色列最终选举结果使该国面临不确定性,总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡的阵营和主要反对派联盟均未获得足够席位以组建多数政府。随着结果明朗,以色列总统伊萨克·赫尔佐格的角色成为焦点,他在决定谁获得首先组建下一届政府的机会方面拥有关键的宪法职责。中央选举委员会公布的最终计票结果显示,内塔尼亚胡阵营在拥有120个席位的议会中赢得53席,远少于上一届议会巅峰时期的68席。

Israel's final election results have left the country facing uncertainty, with neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc nor the main opposition alliance securing enough seats to form a majority government. With the outcome now clear, the role of Israeli President Isaac Herzog, who has a key constitutional role in deciding who gets the first opportunity to form the next government, is in focus. The final count announced by the Central Elections Committee showed that Netanyahu's bloc won 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset, significantly fewer than the 68 seats it held at its peak in the previous parliament.

由前军事首脑加迪·艾森科特所属政党“亚沙尔”领导的反对派联盟获得48席,阿拉伯人领导的政党赢得其余19席。值得注意的是,组建政府所需的议会多数门槛为61席。点击此处追踪以色列选举的实时更新。尽管计票过程已经完成,但结果仍须在11月4日星期三之前正式认证并提交给总统。由于没有任何联盟获得多数,下一步将在很大程度上取决于赫尔佐格及其在政府组建期间所做的选择。

The opposition alliance, led by Yashar, the party of former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, secured 48 seats, while Arab-led parties won the remaining 19. Notably, the parliamentary majority mark required to form the government is 61. Click here to track live updates on Israel electionsAlthough the counting process is complete, the results must still be formally certified and submitted to the president by Wednesday, November 4. With no alliance securing a majority, the next step will depend largely on Herzog and the choices he makes during government formation.

在了解这一过程之前,以下是关于以色列总统需要知道的情况。关于伊萨克·赫尔佐格我们所知道的情况赫尔佐格是以色列第11任总统,于2021年6月由以色列议会选举产生,并于次月就职。他的父亲哈伊姆·赫尔佐格在成为总统之前曾担任以色列驻联合国大使,并于1983年至1993年担任总统。从得克萨斯到堪萨斯,可能决定哪个党派掌控美国国会的参议院和众议院中期选举选情。

他的祖父伊扎克·哈莱维·赫尔佐格拉比是爱尔兰首位首席拉比,担任该职位十余年,之后成为巴勒斯坦首席拉比,随后成为以色列首席拉比,任期为1936年至1959年。赫尔佐格受过律师训练,通过中左翼工党进入政界。

Before looking at the process, here is what to know about the Israeli president. What we know about Isaac HerzogHerzog, Israel's 11th president, was elected by the Knesset, the Israeli Parliament, in June 2021, and he took office the following month. His father, Chaim Herzog, served as Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations before becoming the president and serving from 1983 to 1993. From Texas to Kansas, the Senate and House midterm races that could decide which party runs US CongressHis grandfather, Rabbi Yitzhak Halevi Herzog, was Ireland's first chief rabbi and held the position for more than a decade before becoming the chief rabbi of Palestine and then Israel, serving from 1936 to 1959.A trained lawyer, Herzog entered politics through the centre-left Labor Party.

他曾担任多个部长级职务,包括福利和社会服务部长,随后于2013年至2018年领导该党。2015年,他与本雅明·内塔尼亚胡角逐总理职位,但未能成功。失去党魁职位后,赫尔佐格于2018年执掌犹太事务局,该机构在维系以色列与全球犹太社区之间的联系方面发挥着关键作用。赫尔佐格常被视为比许多同辈人说话更温和、更不直言不讳。

He served in several ministerial roles, including as minister of welfare and social services, before leading the party from 2013 to 2018. In 2015, he contested against Benjamin Netanyahu for the prime minister's post but was unsuccessful. After losing the party leadership role, Herzog took charge of the Jewish Agency in 2018, which plays a key role in maintaining ties between Israel and Jewish communities worldwide. Herzog is often seen as softer-spoken and less outspoken than many of his contemporaries.

据《卫报》报道,一些观察人士认为,这些特质可能阻碍了他成为总理的雄心。内塔尼亚胡、艾森科特还是重新民调?在没有明确授权的情况下,以色列组建下一届政府的四种方式亚伊尔·拉皮德如今是艾森科特广泛反对派阵营的一员,他此前曾称赞赫尔佐格,称他是“一位可敬而出色的人,始终专注于国家和犹太人民的利益”。

Some observers have suggested that these traits may have blocked his ambition of becoming prime minister, The Guardian reported. Netanyahu, Eisenkot or fresh polls? With no clear mandate, here are four ways Israel can form its next governmentYair Lapid, who is now part of Eisenkot's broad opposition bloc, had praised Herzog earlier, describing him as "a worthy and wonderful man who is always focused on the good of the country and the Jewish people".Herzog has faced pressure from Trump repeatedlyAs president, Herzog has faced pressure from US President Donald Trump to pardon Netanyahu, who is facing long-running corruption trials that could result in a prison sentence if he loses power.

赫尔佐格屡次面临特朗普的压力作为总统,赫尔佐格面临美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的压力,要求他赦免内塔尼亚胡。内塔尼亚胡正面临旷日持久的腐败审判,一旦失去权力,可能面临监禁。内塔尼亚胡是唯一一位面临审判的以色列在任总理,他否认了相关指控,并称此案是媒体、警方和司法系统精心策划的政治迫害。今年4月,赫尔佐格曾邀请内塔尼亚胡的律师和检察官到其官邸讨论此事。

Netanyahu, the only sitting Israeli prime minister to face trial, has denied the allegations and called the case a witch hunt orchestrated by the media, police and judiciary. In April, Herzog had invited Netanyahu's lawyers and prosecutors to his residence to discuss the matter.

在周二的关键投票之前,赫尔佐格表示,他预计会面临压力,但不会允许包括特朗普在内的外部影响左右他的决定。阿拉伯政党在以色列表现历史性“我不认为美国总统或任何其他人可以干预我的裁量权,”他告诉美国媒体MS Now。“这是以色列的民主和以色列的宪法,对我来说这才是最重要的。”本月早些时候,赫尔佐格曾称特朗普是以色列的“头号朋友”。

Ahead of Tuesday's crucial vote, Herzog said he expected pressure but would not allow external influence, including from Trump, to affect his decision. Historic showing for Arab parties in Israel"I don't think the president of the United States or anybody else can intervene in my discretion," he told American outlet MS Now. "It's Israel's democracy and Israel's constitution, and that's what counts for me." Earlier this month, Herzog had called Trump Israel’s “No 1 friend”.

在接受阿克塞尔·斯普林格全球记者网络的扬·菲利普·布尔加德采访时,他说:“首先,我们有很多朋友。我认为特朗普总统是头号朋友。我们与本届政府以及他本人都有着深厚的友谊。”以色列总统誓言尽力避免新一轮选举。周三计票进行之际,赫尔佐格宣布他将竭尽所能避免新一轮选举。“有一点必须明确,我在选举前也说过:我们必须尽一切努力,尤其是在昨天之后,避免再来一轮选举,”他说。

In an interview with Axel Springer Global Reporters Network’s Jan Philipp Burgard, he said, “First of all, we have many friends. I think President Trump is the No. 1 friend. We have great friendship with the administration and with him.”Israel president has vowed to try to avoid fresh round of pollsAs votes were being counted on Wednesday, Herzog declared that he would do everything he could to avoid a fresh round of elections." One thing must be clear, and I said this before the elections too: we must do everything we can, certainly after yesterday, to avoid another round of elections," he said.

“所以我期望每个来到这里的人都抱着开放的心态。”为何赫尔佐格作为总统的角色此刻至关重要。以色列人不直接选举总理。相反,选民选择政党,各政党根据得票份额获得议会席位。最终成为总理的领导人是在选举后的政府组建过程中选出的。以色列面前的选择:内塔尼亚胡-艾森科特协议、少数派政府或无新政府。

"So I expect everyone who comes here to come with an open mind." Why Herzog’s role as president matters nowIsraelis do not directly elect their prime minister. Instead, voters choose political parties, which receive seats in the Knesset based on their share of the vote. The leader who eventually becomes prime minister is chosen through the government formation process after the election. The options before Israel: A Netanyahu-Eisenkot deal, a minority government or no new governmentThis is where the president comes in.

总统的作用就在这里。议会单独选举总统,总统负责在决定哪位议员应首先获得组阁机会之前,会见当选政党的代表。总统不必选择赢得席位最多的政党领导人。相反,如果总统认为另一位领导人更有可能获得足够支持以组建联盟并在议会赢得信任投票,这一决定可以交给那位领导人。这方面有先例。

The Knesset elects the president separately, and the president is responsible for meeting representatives of the elected parties before deciding which lawmaker should get the first chance to form a government. The president is not required to choose the leader of the party that wins the most seats. Instead, the decision can go to another leader if the president believes that person has a better chance of securing enough support to form a coalition and win a confidence vote in the Knesset. There is a precedent for this.

2009年,时任总统西蒙·佩雷斯邀请本雅明·内塔尼亚胡组建政府,尽管其右翼利库德集团赢得的选票少于中间派前进党。总统自选举结果正式公布之日起有七天时间,在此期间须咨询所有政党领导人,然后作出决定。总统收到经认证的选举结果后,将与所有当选进入议会的政党代表举行会晤。在这些磋商中,各党领导人推荐他们认为应出任总理的人选。

In 2009, then-President Shimon Peres invited Benjamin Netanyahu to form the government even though his right-wing Likud party had won fewer votes than the centrist Kadima party. The president has seven days from the formal announcement of the election results to consult all party leaders before making a decision. Once the certified election results are received by the president, he holds meetings with representatives of all parties elected to the Knesset. During these consultations, party leaders recommend the candidate they believe should become prime minister.

听取各方意见后,总统选出他认为最有可能成功组建政府的议员。以色列大选:阿拉伯政党预计将赢得创纪录席位,但可能无法成为“造王者”。被选中的人通常有28天时间完成组阁进程。如有需要,总统可额外给予14天。如果该候选人未能获得足够支持,总统可依照宪法程序,将机会给予另一位议员。赫尔佐格面前的可能选项:选举结果使组阁变得困难。

After hearing their views, the president selects the lawmaker he believes has the best chance of forming a government. Israel election: Arab parties projected to win record seats but may not be 'kingmakers'The person chosen is generally given 28 days to complete the process. The president can grant an additional 14 days if required. If the candidate fails to secure sufficient support, the president can offer another lawmaker the opportunity, in accordance with constitutional procedure. The possible options before HerzogThe election outcome has made government formation difficult.

内塔尼亚胡阵营拥有53个席位,反对派拥有48席,阿拉伯政党领导的政党拥有19席。据以色列新闻媒体Ynet报道,如果有超过61名议员推荐艾森科特,包括阿拉伯政党成员,赫尔佐格有可能首先给他机会。如果艾森科特无法组建政府,赫尔佐格随后可能转向内塔尼亚胡。如果两位领导人都未能组建联盟,总统可能会尝试将他们拉到一起,组建民族团结政府。

Netanyahu's bloc has 53 seats, the opposition has 48 and Arab-led parties hold 19. It is possible that Herzog could give Eisenkot the first opportunity if more than 61 lawmakers recommend him, including members of the Arab parties, reported Israeli news outlet Ynet. If Eisenkot cannot form a government, Herzog could then turn to Netanyahu. If both leaders fail to secure a coalition, the president may try to bring them together to form a national unity government.

Ynet援引总统府官员的话报道称,赫尔佐格不一定会将首个组阁授权交给拥有最多席位的政党领导人。每位候选人在磋商期间获得的支持程度也将产生影响。值得注意的是,两个阿拉伯政党都已表示愿意与艾森科特阵营合作。

Ynet, citing officials at the President's Residence, reported that Herzog would not necessarily grant the first mandate to the leader of the party with the most seats. The level of support each candidate receives during consultations will also matter. Notably, both Arab parties have indicated their willingness to work with Eisenkot's camp.

拉姆党于2021年加入了纳夫塔利·贝内特领导的政府,标志着独立阿拉伯政党首次加入以色列联合政府。然而,这届政府在18个月后垮台。

Ra'am became part of Naftali Bennett's government in 2021, marking the first time an independent Arab party joined an Israeli coalition. The government, however, collapsed after 18 months.

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