备受瞩目的2026年以色列大选结果将于11月4日公布。由于现任总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡和加迪·艾森科特领导的两大阵营均未获得明确多数，所有政党都在致力于组建联合政府。
The highly anticipated results for the Israeli elections 2026 will be declared on November 4. With no clear majority secured by the blocs led by incumbent Benjamin Netanyahu and Gadi Eisenkot, all parties are working towards establishing a coalition.
以色列于10月27日举行投票，这是自2023年加沙战争及其他冲突爆发以来的首次选举。投票率记录为77.9%，为1999年以来最高。各阵营席位情况根据以色列中央选举委员会数据，内塔尼亚胡阵营获得53个席位，艾森科特阵营获得48个席位。在120席的以色列议会（克内塞特）中，任何阵营要获胜必须获得61个席位。
Israel went to the polls on October 27, the first time since the war on Gaza and other conflicts began in 2023. The voter turnout was recorded at 77.9%, the highest since 1999. Where each bloc standsAs per Israel's Central Election Committee, the Netanyahu-bloc has secured 53 seats and Eisenkot bloc has secured 48 seats. For any bloc to win, they must secure a total of 61 seats in the 120-member Knesset, the Israeli parliament.
同时，以色列阿拉伯政党——“联合名单”（由哈达什、塔阿尔和巴拉德组成的联盟）和拉姆党，共获得创纪录的19个席位，成为选举中的关键力量。政党需获得全国至少3.25%的有效选票才能进入克内塞特。后续流程官方结果将于11月4日在以色列官方公报《Reshumot》上发布。此后，总统赫尔佐格预将开始磋商。所有获得席位的政党代表团将前往耶路撒冷总统府，推荐总理人选。
Meanwhile, Israel's Arab parties - the Joint List (a coalition of Hadash, Ta'al and Balad) and Ra'am, have secured a record of 19 seats, making them key players in the election. A party needs at least 3.25% of the valid votes nationwide to win any seats in the Knesset. What happens next? The official results will be published on November 4 in Reshumot, Israel's official gazette. After this, President Herzog is expected to begin consultations. Delegations from every party that won seats will visit the President's Residence in Jerusalem and recommend a name for the post of the prime minister.
结果公布后，将启动为期七天的期限，意味着必须最迟于11月11日前就新政府组建做出决定。
After the publication, a seven-day deadline comes into focus, meaning that a decision regarding the new government must be taken latest by November 11.
在这些谈判期间，赫尔佐格认为最有机会组建政府的议员将被召见。总理候选人不一定是最大政党的领袖。
During these negotiations, the lawmaker, which Herzog thinks has the strongest chance of forming a government, will be called. The prime ministerial candidate need not be the leader of the largest party.
据《Ynetnews》报道，亚沙尔党、贝亚哈德党、民主党、联合名单和拉姆党预计将推荐艾森科特，他有望获得60个席位的支持。贝亚哈德党也已确认支持艾森科特。利库德集团、犹太力量党、沙斯党和宗教锡安主义党预计将推荐内塔尼亚胡，共计46个席位。
According to Ynetnews, Yashar, B'Yachad, the Democrats, the Joint List and Ra'am are expected to recommend Eisenkot, who is likely to bag the support of 60 seats. B'Yachad has also confirmed its support for Eisenkot. Likud, Otzma Yehudit, Shas and Religious Zionism are expected to recommend Netanyahu, forming a total of 46.
以色列贝特努党和犹太托拉联盟（14席）尚未决定，据报道犹太托拉联盟正在权衡不推荐任何人。纳夫塔利·贝内特的派系支持加迪·艾森科特出任总理，而内塔尼亚胡在组建以色列下一届政府方面举步维艰。
Yisrael Beytenu and UTJ (14) have not decided, and UTJ is reportedly weighing recommending no one. Naftali Bennett's faction backs Gadi Eisenkot for PM as Netanyahu struggles to form Israel's next governmentOnce the first candidate is called, the lawmaker has 28 days to form the government.
一旦首位候选人被指定，该议员有28天时间组建政府。根据基本法，这一期限可再延长14天。
如果首位候选人失败，以色列总统有两个选择——可将任务交给另一位议员，或通知议会（克内塞特）议长无人有机会组建政府。
As per Basic Law, this deadline can be extended by another 14 days. If the first candidate fails, the Israeli president has two options - the task can be given to another lawmaker or the Knesset Speaker is told that there is no chance of anyone forming a government.
在第一种选择下，第二位候选人获得28天组建政府，但不得延期。
In the first option, the second candidate gets 28 days to form the government, but no extensions.
若采取第二种选择，克内塞特将获得最后一次尝试：在21天内，其120名议员中的任意61人可签署书面请求，要求总统将组阁任务交给一位已同意承担该任务的特定议员。若达成，该议员将获得14天组建政府。如果这也失败，克内塞特将解散并举行新的选举。内塔尼亚胡、艾森科特还是无政府？可能出现的情况随着以色列着手组建第26届克内塞特，共有七种情景。
In case of the second option, the Knesset gets one last try where for 21 days, any 61 of its 120 members can sign a written request asking the president to give the task to a particular lawmaker who has agreed to take it on. If they do, that lawmaker gets 14 days to form a government. If this also fails, the Knesset is dissolved and a fresh vote will be held. Netanyahu, Eisenkot or no government? What could happenThere are a total of seven scenarios as Israel moves to form its 26th Knesset.
情景一——内塔尼亚胡领导的团结政府利库德集团与“直路党”、“在一起党”及以色列贝特努党共同执政，内塔尼亚胡担任总理。犹太力量党、宗教锡安主义党、极端正统派政党及阿拉伯政党留在外围。《以色列时报》将这四个政党描述为共同赢得大量席位的中右翼政党。然而，这里有个条件——内塔尼亚胡必须打破与现有盟友共同执政的承诺，而加迪·艾森科特、纳夫塔利·贝内特、亚伊尔·拉皮德和阿维格多·利伯曼必须打破绝不在内塔尼亚胡手下任职的承诺。据报道，赫尔佐格总统从一开始就希望达成团结协议，但其办公室予以否认。
Scenario 1 - Unity government under NetanyahuLikud governs with Yashar, B'Yachad and Yisrael Beytenu, with Netanyahu as prime minister. Otzma Yehudit, Religious Zionism, the ultra-Orthodox and the Arab parties stay out. The Times of Israel describes these four as the centre-right parties that together won a substantial share of seats. However, there is a catch - Netanyahu would have to break his pledge to govern with his existing allies, and Gadi Eisenkot, Naftali Bennett, Yair Lapid and Avigdor Liberman would have to break their pledge never to serve under Netanyahu. President Herzog has reportedly wanted a unity deal from the start, which his office denies.
据报道，利伯曼希望艾森科特加入内塔尼亚胡的阵营，但他本人不会这样做。情景2：与内塔尼亚胡组建联合政府，内塔尼亚胡先担任轮值总理内塔尼亚胡和艾森科特将轮流担任总理，由内塔尼亚胡先上任。有两个版本。据Ynetnews报道，利库德将与整个变革集团分享权力。在耶路撒冷邮报从内塔尼亚胡身边人士处获悉的一个版本中，艾森科特将在大约两年后接任，政府最初仅由利库德、犹太力量党、宗教犹太复国主义党和亚沙尔党组成。
Liberman reportedly wants Eisenkot to join Netanyahu but won't do so himself. Scenario 2 - Unity government with Netanyahu first in a rotationNetanyahu and Eisenkot would take turns as prime minister, with Netanyahu going first. There are two versions. According to Ynetnews, Likud would share power with the whole change bloc. In a version briefed to the Jerusalem Post by people close to Netanyahu, Eisenkot takes over after about two years, and the government starts with just Likud, Otzma Yehudit, Religious Zionism and Yashar.
极端正统派政党将在通过兵役法后才加入。该阵容正好加起来61个席位，也是图表中显示的那个。问题是——艾森科特已排除这种可能性：“我明确承诺，我不会在轮值协议下在内塔尼亚胡手下任职。就此为止。”利库德也已拒绝。利库德党鞭奥菲尔·卡茨11月1日对军队电台表示：“我们反对轮值，选举结果显示公众对我们有高度信任。”
The ultra-Orthodox parties would join only after it passes a military-service law. That line-up adds up to exactly 61 seats, and it is the one shown on the chart.
情景3：内塔尼亚胡与变革集团叛逃议员组建政府在这种情况下，内塔尼亚胡维持其联盟，并从反对派拉拢至少八名议员，主要来自艾森科特的亚沙尔党。据报道，利库德已成立一个特别团队来劝说他们。这条路线还需要犹太经文经学联合党保持原位。其忠诚度存疑。犹太经文经学联合党消息人士称，与内塔尼亚胡的联盟已走到尽头，该党在承诺加入任何政府之前，希望先通过一项兵役豁免法。
The catch - Eisenkot has ruled it out: “I unequivocally pledge that I will not serve under Netanyahu in a rotation agreement. Period.”Likud has also rejected it. “We oppose rotation, after the election results showed a high level of confidence in us,” Likud whip Ofir Katz told Army Radio on November 1.
然而，叛逃议员将不得不违背竞选承诺，不在内塔尼亚胡手下任职，也不与极端正统派政党合作。
Scenario 3 - Netanyahu forms the government with defectors from the Change bloc.
情景4：艾森科特与内塔尼亚胡的盟友犹太经文经学联合党组建政府据报道，多年来一直支持内塔尼亚胡的极端正统派政党犹太经文经学联合党，正在提出让艾森科特执政。它将不进入政府，而是弃权而非投反对票。据Ynetnews报道，一名犹太经文经学联合党高级官员表示：“我们正在向他提供总理职位。”
In this scenario, Netanyahu keeps his alliance and lures at least eight lawmakers away from the opposition, mainly from Eisenkot's Yashar. Likud has reportedly set up a special team to persuade them. This route also needs UTJ to stay put.
这总比当老二或再举行一次选举要好。”没有犹太教统一托拉党（UTJ），内塔尼亚胡阵营拥有46个席位，因此只要阿拉伯政党不投反对票，艾森科特的48个席位就能在信任投票中获胜。据《Ynetnews》报道，艾森科特已授权研究由犹太教统一托拉党和统一阿拉伯名单（Ra'am）弃权组成的政府。然而，犹太教统一托拉党只有在就年轻极端正统派男子在宗教神学院（yeshivas）的兵役豁免达成协议后才会加入。
Its loyalty is in doubt. UTJ sources say the alliance with Netanyahu has run its course, and the party wants a draft-exemption law before it commits to any government.
大多数犹太以色列人必须服役。一位犹太教统一托拉党官员表示，一旦征兵法通过，该党就可能加入政府。问题在于？艾森科特的核心竞选承诺是全民国民服役，这与犹太教统一托拉党的诉求背道而驰。据报道，利伯曼反对与极端正统派政党组建政府，没有他手中的7个席位，艾森科特一方将降至41席，少于对立面的46席。
However, defectors would have to break campaign pledges not to serve under Netanyahu or alongside the ultra-Orthodox parties. Scenario 4 - Eisenkot forms the government with Netanyahu ally UTJUnited Torah Judaism, an ultra-Orthodox party that has backed Netanyahu for years, is reportedly offering to let Eisenkot govern.
这些报道依赖未具名的犹太教统一托拉党消息来源。该党主席雅各夫·阿舍尔表示，犹太教统一托拉党“目前不是在以阵营术语进行谈判”。情景五——由艾森科特领导的临时少数派或看守政府在此情景下，加迪·艾森科特组建政府，但因其阵营仅获48席而成为少数派政府。然而，如果阿拉伯政党——联合名单和统一阿拉伯名单在不正式加入政府的情况下从外部支持艾森科特阵营，即便其自身席位不足61席，艾森科特在信任投票中也将获得67票支持、53票反对。
It would stay out of the government and abstain instead of voting against it. According to Ynetnews, a senior UTJ official said: “We are offering him the premiership. That's better than being No. 2 or going to another election.”Without UTJ, Netanyahu's camp has 46 seats, so Eisenkot's 48 could win a confidence vote as long as the Arab parties do not vote against him.
据《Ynetnews》报道，也存在一个短命版本：更换议长阿米尔·奥哈纳，设立调查委员会调查2023年10月7日袭击事件，随后解散议会举行新一轮选举。但还有一个障碍，除民主党领袖亚伊尔·戈兰外，每一位变革阵营领袖都承诺不依靠阿拉伯政党。贝内特和利伯曼反对这样做，艾森科特也表示没有任何阿拉伯政党符合他的条件。
According to Ynetnews, Eisenkot has authorised an examination of a government formed with UTJ and Ra'am abstaining. However, the UTJ would join only if a deal on military draft exemptions for young ultra-Orthodox men in religious seminaries (yeshivas) is made.
拉阿姆党确实在2021年加入了贝内特-拉皮德政府，该政府约一年后垮台。情景6——艾森科特与拉阿姆党组建政府。这一情景将是2021年的重演，当时曼苏尔·阿巴斯的拉阿姆党加入了贝内特-拉皮德政府。该联盟将拥有56个席位。如果联合名单党从外部支持它或弃权，56张赞成票将击败53张反对票。但这似乎不太可能，因为利伯曼排除了任何依赖阿拉伯政党的政府，哪怕是暂时的。
Most Jewish Israelis must serve. One UTJ official said the party could join the government once a conscription law passes. The catch? Eisenkot's core campaign promise is national service for all, the opposite of what UTJ wants. Liberman reportedly opposes forming a government with the ultra-Orthodox parties, and without his 7 seats Eisenkot's side drops to 41, fewer than the 46 against.
阿巴斯本人现在也表示，少数派政府不太可能。情景7——重新选举。如果所有道路都失败，议会自动解散，以色列再次举行大选。这仍然是唯一没有任何领导人违背竞选承诺的结果。如果举行这些选举，时间可能在2027年4月中旬至5月下旬之间，内塔尼亚胡将继续担任看守总理。
The reports rely on unnamed UTJ sources. Party chairman Yaakov Asher says UTJ is “not currently talking in terms of blocs.Scenario 5 - Temporary minority or caretaker government led by EisenkotWith this, Gadi Eisenkot forms the government, but a minority one due to his bloc securing 48 seats. However, if both Arab parties - Joint List and Ra'am back the Eisenkot bloc from outside without formally joining, that would give Eisenkot 67 votes against 53 in a confidence vote, even though it holds fewer than 61 seats itself.According to Ynetnews, a short-lived version is also possible: replace Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana, set up an inquiry into the October 7, 2023 attack, then dissolve the Knesset for a fresh election. But there is yet another catch, every change-bloc leader except the Democrats' Yair Golan promised not to rely on Arab parties. Bennett and Liberman oppose it, and Eisenkot has said no Arab party meets his conditions. Ra'am did join the Bennett–Lapid government in 2021, which collapsed about a year later.Scenario 6 - Eisenkot forms the government with Ra'am.This scenario would be a rerun of 2021, when Mansour Abbas's Ra'am joined the Bennett–Lapid government. The coalition would have 56 seats. If the Joint List backed it from outside or abstained, 56 votes for would beat 53 against. But it seems unlikely, because Liberman rules out any government that leans on Arab parties, even temporarily. Abbas himself now says a minority government is unlikely.Scenario 7 - A fresh voteIf all roads fail, the Knesset dissolves automatically and Israel goes to the polls again. This remains the only outcome in which no leader breaks a campaign promise. These elections, if held, would probably be between mid-April and late May 2027, and Netanyahu stays on as caretaker prime minister.