民主党在通用国会选票上以 10 个百分点领先共和党，双方正为下周中期选中国会控制权展开角逐。爱默生学院民调中心周五发布的民调显示，民主党以 52% 对 42% 广泛领先共和党。这仅比该民调中心 9 月民调中民主党 11 个百分点的领先优势略微收窄。民主党正在争取在 11 月重夺国会两院控制权。Decision Desk HQ 周四的预测显示，民主党夺得众议院控制权的几率为 80%，在参议院获得多数席位的几率为 60%。
Democrats have a 10-point lead over Republicans on a generic congressional ballot, as the parties face off for control of Congress in next week’s midterm election. An Emerson College Polling survey released Friday found Democrats broadly leading with 52 percent over 42 percent support for the GOP. This is only slightly tighter than Democrats’ 11-point lead in the polling center’s September survey. The Democratic Party is fighting to retake control of both chambers of Congress this November. Decision Desk HQ’s forecast on Thursday put their odds at gaining control of the House at 80 percent and their chance at gaining majority power in the Senate at 60 percent.
爱默生学院民调中心执行主任斯宾塞·金博尔指出，共和党的支持率止步于 42%，与该中心 2025 年 7 月开始追踪本选举周期通用选票支持率时的起始水平相同。“民主党支持率在过去十五个月里上升了 8 个百分点，从 44% 升至 52%，摇摆选民和未决定选民明显向民主党倾斜，”金博尔在声明中说。“鉴于仍有约 5% 的选民未决定，其中大多为独立选民，且有一半不赞同特朗普，民主党的国会选票上限可能高于民调显示的水平。”
Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball noted that support for Republicans is ending at the same 42 percent support level they began at in July 2025, when the polling center began tracking generic ballot support for this election cycle. “Democratic support climbed eight points over the past fifteen months from 44% to 52%, undecided and swing voters clearly shifting in the Democrats’ favor,” Kimball said in a statement. “With about 5% still undecided, most of whom are independent and half disapprove of Trump, Democrats’ congressional ceiling could be higher than the poll reports.”
金博尔还指出，特朗普总统今年的支持率大幅下跌，背景是其政府正在进行的对伊朗军事行动和与加拿大的贸易争端。10 月民调中，57% 的受访者表示不赞同特朗普处理总统职务的方式——自 1 月以来上升了 6 个百分点。他在最新民调中的支持率降至 37%。
Kimball also noted President Trump’s plummeting approval ratings this year amid his administration’s ongoing military operations against Iran and a trade fight with Canada. Fifty-seven percent of respondents in the October poll said they disapproved of Trump’s handling of his job as president — a 6-point increase since January. His approval rating was down to 37 percent in this new poll.
该民调还显示，民主党和共和党在即将到来的中期选举投票热情上存在差距。92% 的民主党选民表示“非常”或“比较”期待在本次选举中投票，而共和党选民这一比例为 85%。
The survey also displayed an enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans to vote in the upcoming midterms. Ninety-two percent of Democrats said they were either “very” or “somewhat” excited to cast their ballot in this election, while 85 percent of Republicans said the same.
爱默生学院民调中心于10月24日至26日进行了这项民意调查，样本为1000名可能投票者，误差范围约为3个百分点。
The Emerson College Polling survey was conducted between Oct. 24-26 among a sample of 1,000 likely voters with a margin of error of approximately 3 percentage points.