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彭博社

华尔街毫不留情:业绩不及预期引发深度抛售Wall Street Turns Ruthless as Earnings Misses Fuel Deep Selloffs

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一名工人在纽约从送货卡车上卸下亚马逊包裹。摄影师:迈克尔·纳格尔/彭博社A worker unloads Amazon packages from a delivery truck in New York. Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg

股权投资者正在对业绩不及预期的公司施以有史以来最严厉的惩罚,而就在此刻,策略师们正敲响警钟,称盈利增长极有可能已见顶。

Equity investors are meting out some of the harshest punishments ever for companies that miss expectations, just as strategists sound the alarm that earnings growth has likely peaked.

亚马逊公司周四盘后成为最新一家遭遇业绩发布后急跌的公司,此前谷歌母公司Alphabet Inc. 发布令人失望的业绩,导致其股价创下纪录性跌幅。通信服务板块的投资者现在对业绩不及预期的惩罚力度,已达到彭博社2019年开始收集数据以来最陡峭的程度。权重极大的科技板块也在上演同样的剧本。

Amazon.com Inc. became the latest firm to face sharp post-earnings selloffs Thursday after the close, following disappointing results from Google-parent Alphabet Inc. that sent its shares to a record drop. Investors in communications services stocks are now penalizing misses with the steepest selloffs since Bloomberg began collecting data in 2019. The same dynamic is playing out in the heavily-weighted tech sector.

北光资产管理公司首席投资官Chris Zaccarelli表示,市场“比平时敏感得多”,并补充说,投资者宁愿先卖后问,也不愿被套牢、眼睁睁看着亏损扩大。

The market is “a lot more sensitive than it might normally be,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management, adding that investors would rather sell first and ask questions later rather than get stuck nursing further losses.

从富国银行到富兰克林邓普顿的策略师们,近几周均在预测,随着利率走高、关税压力和高油价拖累业绩,标普500成分股公司的盈利扩张将放缓。随着财报季进行了约三分之一,他们的预测已被证明切中肯綮:数据显示,盈利增速已滑落至约26%——尽管与历史常态相比仍处高位,但已低于第二季度见到的32%增速。

Strategists from Wells Fargo to Franklin Templeton were among those in recent weeks predicting the S&P 500 corporate earnings expansion would decelerate as higher interest rates, tariff pressures and elevated oil prices weigh on results. Roughly a third of the way through the reporting season, their forecasts have proven on point: Earnings growth has slipped to roughly 26% — still elevated compared with historical norms but below the 32% growth rate seen in the second quarter, the data show.

盈利放缓由市场最大的板块主导。根据彭博情报,科技板块利润增速预计将在第三季度放缓至65%,低于上一季度近77%的水平。同样,通信服务板块预计将仅增长3.2%,远低于近10%的增速。

The earnings slowdown is being led by the market’s largest sector. Tech profit growth is seen decelerating to 65% in the third quarter, from nearly 77% last quarter, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Similarly, communications services is expected to slow to just 3.2% from nearly 10%.

盘后暴跌强化了市场的担忧,即最好的季度——尤其是对于AI相关公司而言——已成为过眼云烟。

The post-earnings plunges are reinforcing fears that the best quarters, particularly for AI-linked companies, are in the rear-view mirror.

“如果你在这两个板块占据了50%的市场份额,人们会想要更多,他们需要更多证据来确认这笔交易依然完好无损,”Truist Advisory Services首席投资官兼首席市场策略师Keith Lerner表示。他说,增长放缓正在挑战这一叙事。

“If you’ve got 50% of the market in those two sectors, people want extra, they want more validation that this trade is still in tact,” said Keith Lerner, chief investment officer and chief market strategist at Truist Advisory Services. A slowdown in growth challenges the narrative, he said.

确实,科技和通信服务板块是本月仅有的两个下跌板块,而市场的其他每个角落都已上涨。

Indeed, the tech and communications sectors are the only two in the red this month, while every other corner of the market has advanced.

Bokeh Capital Partners首席投资官Kimberly Forrest表示,投资者正在“削减部分过度收益”,从科技股中撤资以买入其他地方更便宜的股票,而不是完全退出一个依然有望实现盈利增长的股票市场,即使增长速度较慢。

Kimberly Forrest, chief investment officer at Bokeh Capital Partners, said investors are “trimming some of their excessive gains” in tech to pick up cheaper stocks elsewhere, rather than completely selling out of an equities market that is still poised to grow earnings, even if it’s at a slower rate.

根据彭博情报的估计,标普500指数成分股的盈利增长预计将在2027年全年以及2028年第一季度接近20%。Franklin Templeton Institute投资策略主管Jeff Schulze表示,这高于历史上市场在增长见顶后继续上涨所需的10%门槛。

S&P 500 earnings growth is set to track closer to 20% over the course of 2027 and into the first quarter of 2028, according to Bloomberg Intelligence estimates. That’s above the 10% threshold that has historically been required for the market to continue advancing after a peak in growth, according to Jeff Schulze, head investment strategist at the Franklin Templeton Institute.

“比盈利见顶更重要的是紧随其后那一年的盈利增长情况,”Schulze说。鉴于这一前景,他表示,“如果我们只是成长到符合2028年现有的盈利预期,标普500指数在2027年可能会实现高个位数、低双位数的回报。”不过,投资者面临的问题也比单纯的盈利放缓更深层。到目前为止,标普500指数成分股跑赢华尔街预期的比率处于今年最低水平,且这一情况跨越了科技、可选消费和金融等多个板块。

“What matters more than peak earnings is what your earnings growth is in the year following that peak,” Schulze said. Given the outlook, he said that “if we just grow into the earnings expectations that are out there for 2028, we could have an S&P 500 that delivers high single digit, low double-digit returns in 2027.”Still, the problem for investors is also deeper than simply earnings slowing down. So far, S&P 500 members are beating Wall Street estimates at the lowest rate this year, and that’s true across multiple sectors including tech, consumer discretionary and financials.

投资者不愿对企业的业绩不及预期网开一面。“如果某一特定领域的盈利低于预期,我认为你将看到所有相关领域迅速重新定价,”Zaccarelli说。

Investors are in no mood to let companies off the hook for misses. “If earnings are less than expected in one particular area, I think you’ll see a rapid repricing across all the related areas,” Zaccarelli said.

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