堪萨斯州参议员罗杰·马歇尔（共和党）为特朗普总统取消在该州的集会决定进行了辩护，称即使总统不来访问，他也能赢得选举。
Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall (R) is defending President Trump’s decision to cancel his rally in the state, saying he can win without a visit from the president.
“我认为我在民调中的表现非常好，所以他可能有更好的地方去花时间，”马歇尔周四在被问及对总统取消访问向日葵州（堪萨斯州别称）的反应时对记者表示。
“I think that I’m doing so well in the polls that he’s got, probably got better places to spend his time,” Marshall told reporters Thursday when asked for his reaction to the president cancelling his visit to the Sunflower State.
特朗普总统在取消了堪萨斯州和爱荷华州的现场集会后，尚未宣布新的集会安排，他本竞选季最后一个已安排的现场集会将于周五在佛罗里达州举行。他选择在中期选举剩余竞选活动中改举行电话集会。
President Trump has not announced new rallies after he canceled his in-person rallies in Kansas and Iowa and his last remaining scheduled in-person rally this campaign season is Friday in Florida. He’s opting to do tele-rallies for the rest of his midterm campaigning instead.
共和党全国委员会在解释取消集会原因时，援引了共和党在两州的“强势地位”。
The Republican National Committee cited Republicans’ “strong position” in both states when explaining the cancellations.
近期民调显示，马歇尔的连选前景可能并不乐观，即使特朗普在2024年大选中在该州以超过15个百分点的优势获胜。本周发布的三项竞选民调均显示民主党人亚当·汉密尔顿领先马歇尔。CNN/SSRS民调显示汉密尔顿领先4个百分点，《华盛顿邮报》/乔治梅森大学民调显示领先10个百分点，艾默生学院民调显示领先3.5个百分点。
Recent polls suggest Marshall may not be in a strong position for reelection, even in a state Trump won by more than 15 points in 2024. Three polls of the race released this week show Democrat Adam Hamilton leading Marshall. CNN/SSRS had Hamilton up by 4 points, The Washington Post/George Mason University showed him up by 10 and an Emerson College poll had Hamilton ahead by 3.5 points.
近100年来，向日葵州从未选出过民主党籍联邦参议员，尽管该州曾选出过其他全州范围职位的民主党人，目前州长劳拉·凯利也是民主党人。
The Sunflower State has not elected a Democrat to the upper chamber in nearly 100 years, though it has elected Democrats for other statewide positions, and currently has a Democratic governor, Laura Kelly.
特朗普政府政策的影响在堪萨斯州这种以农村和农业为主的州可能尤为显著。伊朗战争导致柴油价格飙升，据美国汽车协会（AAA）数据，全国平均价格徘徊在每加仑6.32美元，堪萨斯州为6.03美元。
The impact of Trump administration policies may be especially pronounced in a rural and farming-heavy state like Kansas. The Iran war has sent the price of diesel fuel skyrocketing, hovering at an average of $6.32 per gallon nationally, and $6.03 in Kansas, according to AAA.
推动汉密尔顿领先的因素可能是特朗普的支持率——艾默生学院民调发现，51%的堪萨斯州可能选民不认可总统的工作表现，而45%表示认可。在该调查中，马歇尔的得票率与认可特朗普的比例几乎完全吻合。
Driving Hamilton’s lead could be Trump’s approval rating — the Emerson poll found that 51 percent of Kansas likely voters disapproved of the president’s job performance, while 45 percent approved. Marshall’s vote share matched the share who approved of Trump almost exactly in the survey.
无党派选举预测机构 Decision Desk HQ（DDHQ，是《国会山报》的合作伙伴）现在认为马歇尔连任的几率仅为 58%，而本周期早些时候曾给出高达 90% 的几率。
Nonpartisan election forecaster Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), a partner of The Hill, now gives Marshall just a 58 percent chance to win reelection, after giving him as high as a 90 percent chance earlier in the cycle.
总体而言，DDHQ 预测民主党在参议院以微弱优势占据多数，给予该党 60% 的几率夺回参议院控制权。
Overall, DDHQ narrowly forecasts a Democratic Senate majority, giving the party a 60 percent chance to flip the chamber.