前新罕布什尔州州长克里斯·苏努努（共和党）预测共和党将在得克萨斯州参议院竞选中遭遇惨败，尽管他对本党在全国范围内的前景持更乐观的看法。
Former New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R) is predicting doom for Republicans in the Texas Senate race, even as he maintains a more optimistic picture for his party nationally.
周四晚间，苏努努在接受NewsNation主持人克里斯·库莫采访时预测，共和党人肯·帕克斯顿将在下周败给民主党人詹姆斯·塔拉里科。
Speaking with NewsNation’s Chris Cuomo on Thursday night, Sununu predicted that Republican Ken Paxton would lose to Democrat James Talarico next week.
苏努努在《库莫》节目中说：“我认为得克萨斯州对共和党来说麻烦大了。”自1980年代以来，民主党在得克萨斯州尚未赢得过参议院竞选，但该党认为今年有很好的机会，因为帕克斯顿作为候选人存在弱势。
“I think Texas is in trouble for Republicans,” Sununu said on “Cuomo.”No Democrat has won a Senate race in Texas since the 1980s, but the party thinks they have a good shot this year due to Paxton’s weaknesses as a candidate.
除了孤星州的竞选外，这位前新罕布什尔州州长对参议院选情的看法比党内一些人乐观得多，他预测“极端分子会落败”。苏努努表示，据报道针对阿拉斯加州民主党人的“堆叠选票”指控可能有助于共和党守住该席位，并预测共和党将在缅因州和密歇根州获胜，理由是过去民调曾出现偏差。
Aside from the Lone Star State’s race, the former New Hampshire governor maintains a much more optimistic picture of the Senate than some in his party, as he predicted that “extremists lose.”Sununu said he thought reported accusations of ballot stacking against Democrats in Alaska may help Republicans hold the seat, and he predicted wins for the GOP in Maine and Michigan, citing past polling misses.
苏努努说：“有些保守派或共和党人就是不回答民调，他们就是不露面。所以我们在民调中总是被大幅低估。”
“You have conservatives or Republicans that just don’t answer polls. They just don’t come out. So we’re always massively underpolled,” Sununu said.
民调在这些州曾低估过共和党，但那主要发生在总统大选年、特朗普总统出现在选票上的时候。政治数据分析师内特·西尔弗的分析发现，虽然民调在2016年、2020年和2024年显著高估了民主党的领先优势，但在2018年和2022年——最近两届中期选举中，民调几乎完美，误差不足半个百分点。
Polls have underestimated Republicans in those states before, but that happened mainly in presidential years when President Trump was on the ballot. An analysis by political data analyst Nate Silver found that while polls significantly overstated Democrats’ leads in 2016, 2020 and 2024, the polls were nearly perfect, with errors of less than half a point, in 2018 and 2022 — the two most recent midterms.
如果今年民调可信，它们预示着共和党将面临一个特别糟糕的夜晚。据《国会山报》合作伙伴Decision Desk HQ（DDHQ）统计，在竞争激烈的参议院竞选中，民主党仅在爱荷华州和南卡罗来纳州的平均民调中落后，在所有其他竞选中均领先。这包括得克萨斯州、堪萨斯州和俄亥俄州等深红州。
If polls are to be believed this year, they predict an especially bad night for Republicans. According to Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), a partner of The Hill, Democrats only trail in the average of polls in two competitive Senate races — Iowa and South Carolina — and lead in all the others. That includes deep-red states like Texas, Kansas and Ohio.
苏努努对显示部分州竞争激烈的民调不予置评，称共和党将“一切顺利”。“保守派州份，竞争会很激烈。但南卡罗来纳州、堪萨斯州、爱荷华州，他们会没事的，”苏努努说。
Sununu dismissed polls showing competitive races in some of those states, saying Republicans will “be fine.”“The conservative states, it’ll be close. But South Carolina, Kansas, Iowa, they’ll be fine,” Sununu said.
苏努努的哥哥、前参议员约翰·苏努努（共和党-新罕布什尔州）今年也在选票上，在“花岗岩州”竞逐其旧席位，对手是众议员克里斯·帕帕斯（民主党）。虽然九月初选后的一些民调显示竞争胶着，但据DDHQ统计，帕帕斯此后已拉开差距，领先7个百分点。
Sununu’s brother, former Sen. John Sununu (R-N.H.) is on the ballot this year, running for his old seat in the Granite State against Rep. Chris Pappas (D). While some polls conducted after the September primary showed a close race, Pappas has since pulled ahead, leading by 7 points, according to DDHQ.
总体而言，DDHQ的预测显示，民主党夺回参议院控制权的几率为60%。
Overall, DDHQ’s forecast gives Democrats a 60 percent chance to take back control of the Senate.