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美联社决策笔记:选举日加州有哪些看点AP Decision Notes: What to expect in California on Election Day

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2026年10月23日星期五,在该州民主党成员、工会组织及其他倡导者举行的一场集会上,一张感恩而死乐队的投票海报斜靠在椅子上。(美联社照片/希瑟·迪尔)A Grateful Dead vote poster is propped against a chair during a rally with members of the state's Democratic Party, organized labor, and other advocates in San Francisco, Friday, Oct. 23, 2026. (AP Photo/Heather Diehl)

加利福尼亚州选民将于周二选出新任州长,并决定几场可能左右国会权力平衡的众议院选举。选票上还有一项全州范围的提案,旨在征收美国首个针对亿万富翁的税收。该提案被称为“第40号提案”,将授权对净资产超过10亿美元的个人征收一次性5%的税。该计划的收入将用于填补联邦医疗保健资金削减留下的缺口。

California voters are set to elect a new governor and decide a handful of House races that could swing the balance of power in Congress. ROBERT YOON WASHINGTON — California voters will elect a new governor on Tuesday and decide a handful of House races that could swing the balance of power in Congress. Also on the ballot is a statewide measure that would impose the nation’s first-ever tax on billionaires The proposal, known as Proposition 40, would authorize a one-time 5% tax on individuals with a net worth exceeding $1 billion. Revenue from the program would go toward replacing cuts in federal healthcare funding.

这一议题打破了一些传统联盟,也形成了新的阵营。支持该提案的包括佛蒙特州参议员伯尼·桑德斯、加利福尼亚州众议员罗·卡纳、SEIU-联合医疗工人西部分会以及加利福尼亚州民主党。反对者包括民主党籍州长加文·纽森、加利福尼亚州教师协会、计划生育协会州分会以及加利福尼亚州共和党。

The issue has divided some traditional alliances and created new ones. Supporters of the measure include Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, Rep. Ro Khanna of California, SEIU-United Healthcare Workers West and the California Democratic Party, Opponents include Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, the California Teachers Association, the state branch of Planned Parenthood and the California Republican Party.

据AdImpact统计,反对该提案的阵营在支出上远超支持者。

Opponents of the measure have far outspent supporters, according to AdImpact.

在州长竞选中,民主党人哈维尔·贝塞拉和共和党人史蒂夫·希尔顿在6月2日的全党派初选中从61名候选人中脱颖而出,得票居前两位。贝塞拉曾任州检察长,并在乔·拜登总统任内担任卫生与公众服务部部长。希尔顿曾是福克斯新闻评论员,曾担任英国前保守党首相戴维·卡梅伦的高级顾问。胜者将接替因任期限制无法连任的纽森。

In the race for governor, Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton were the top vote-getters among 61 candidates in the June 2 all-party primary Becerra is a former state attorney general and was Health and Human Services secretary under President Joe Biden. Hilton is a former Fox News commentator who once served as a senior adviser to former Conservative Party British Prime Minister David Cameron. The winner will succeed Newsom, who is term-limited.

在争夺势均力敌的美国众议院控制权的角逐中,一张有利于民主党的新国会选区地图,使几位共和党现任众议员的连选之路变得更加复杂。选民于2025年11月通过公投批准了新的选区边界,此举是对唐纳德·特朗普总统在得克萨斯州及其他州试图提高其党派保住众议院多数席位机会的回应。

In the race for control of the narrowly divided U.S. House, a new congressional map favorable to Democrats has complicated the reelection bids of several Republican House incumbents. Voters approved the new district boundaries in a November 2025 referendum which was a response to President Donald Trump’s effort in Texas other states to boost his party’s chances of keeping their House majority.

共和党在众议院占据微弱优势,而新划定的选区可能让民主党净增五个席位。

Republicans hold a slight edge in the chamber, and the new districts could net Democrats an additional five seats.

在第22国会选区,共和党众议员大卫·瓦拉达奥(David Valadao)寻求第七个任期,对手是民主党人兰迪·比列加斯(Randy Villegas)。瓦拉达奥前三个任期以舒适优势获胜,直到2018年险败。他在2020年夺回该席位,并已连任三届,但优势大幅缩小。这场竞选是全美最具竞争力的选战之一。

In the 22nd Congressional District, Republican Rep. David Valadao seeks a seventh term against Democrat Randy Villegas. Valadao won his first three terms by comfortable margins until his narrow defeat in 2018. He won it back in 2020 and has held his seat for another three terms, although by much slimmer margins. The race is one of the most competitive in the country.

同样竞争激烈的是第48国会选区的无现任者竞选,旨在接替共和党众议员达雷尔·伊萨(Darrell Issa),后者选择退休,而非在重新划分的选区寻求第13个任期。

Also competitive is the open-seat race in the 48th Congressional District to replace Republican Rep. Darrell Issa, who is retiring rather than seek a 13th term in a redrawn district.

共和党必将保住第40国会选区,但肯·卡尔弗特(Ken Calvert)和金映玉(Young Kim)两位现任众议员的对决将导致该党至少失去一名现任议员。

Republicans are guaranteed to hold the 40th Congressional District, but the matchup between Reps. Ken Calvert and Young Kim will cost the party at least one incumbent.

特朗普政府起诉加利福尼亚州选举官员,要求阻止处理其指控由非公民投出的2万张选票,直到核实其公民身份。联邦地区法院法官周二驳回该请求,随后于周四指定一名特别主事官评估政府的主张。司法部周四向选举官员发出传票。

The Trump administration has sued California election officials to block the processing of 20,000 ballots it alleges were cast by noncitizens until their citizenship can be verified. A district court judge on Tuesday rejected that request then on Thursday appointed a special master to evaluate the administration’s claims. The Justice Department issued subpoenas to election officials on Thursday.

曾几何时,在艾森豪威尔、尼克松和里根时代,加利福尼亚是一个可靠的共和党州,但自1988年以来,该州再未选出共和党人担任联邦层面的全州性职务。共和党在州长选举中表现较好,在过去12次州长选举中赢得六次——包括一次罢免选举——但民主党已连续16年把持该职位。

Once a reliably Republican state in the Eisenhower, Nixon and Reagan years, California hasn’t elected a Republican to statewide federal office since 1988. The party has fared better in gubernatorial elections, winning six of the last 12 elections — including one recall election — for the state’s top office, but Democrats have held the seat for the last 16 years.

在全州范围的选举中,民主党往往在人口稠密的洛杉矶和旧金山地区占据主导地位,同时也在萨克拉门托和圣地亚哥地区以及太平洋沿岸地区以舒适的优势获胜。共和党往往在北加利福尼亚和中央谷地表现最好。南部的内陆帝国竞争更为激烈。特朗普在2024年总统大选中以微弱优势赢得该地区,而民主党人拜登和希拉里·克林顿分别在2020年和2016年获胜。

In statewide elections, Democrats tend to dominate in the heavily populated Los Angeles and San Francisco areas, while also winning by comfortable margins in the Sacramento and San Diego areas and along the Pacific Coast. Republicans tend to perform best in Northern California and in the Central Valley. The Inland Empire to the south is more competitive. Trump narrowly carried the area in the 2024 presidential election, while Democrats Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton won in 2020 and 2016.

以下是关于此次选举的一些关键事实,以及美联社决策团将在计票过程中监测的数据点:投票何时结束?投票于太平洋时间晚上8点结束,即东部时间晚上11点。选票上有什么?

Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied: When do polls close? Polls close at 8 p.m. PT, which is 11 p.m. ET. What’s on the ballot?

美联社将提供投票结果并宣布美国众议院、州长、副州长、州务卿、州审计长、州财长、州检察长、保险专员、州教育厅长、平等委员会、州参议院、州众议院、奥克兰市长、洛杉矶市长、洛杉矶县治安官以及14项全州范围投票提案(包括第40号提案)的获胜者。实际有多少人投票?2022年州长选举中约有1100万张选票被投出。有多少选票是提前投票或缺席投票投出的?

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners for U.S. House, governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state, controller, treasurer, attorney general, insurance commissioner, state school superintendent, Board of Equalization, state Senate, State House, mayor of Oakland, mayor of Los Angeles, Los Angeles County sheriff and 14 statewide ballot measures, including Proposition 40. How many people actually vote? About 11 million votes were cast in 2022 gubernatorial election. How much of the vote is cast early or by absentee ballot?

加利福尼亚州的选举主要通过邮寄方式进行。2022年州长选举中,约90%的选票是通过提前现场投票或邮寄方式投出的。

California elections are conducted predominantly by mail. About 90% of the vote in the 2022 gubernatorial election was cast early in-person or by mail.

加利福尼亚州最新的提前投票总数可在美联社的提前投票追踪器中找到。提前投票和缺席投票何时公布?

The latest advance vote totals for California can be found in the AP’s advance vote tracker When are early and absentee votes released?

所有加利福尼亚州县预计将在当晚首次计票报告中公布至少部分或大部分邮寄投票结果,这几乎总是在任何现场选举日结果公布之前。大约五分之二的县也预计将在首次计票报告中公布至少部分提前现场投票结果。

All California counties are expected to release at least some or most of their mail voting results in the first vote report of the night, almost always before any in-person Election Day results are released. Roughly two of every five counties are also expected to release at least some early in-person results in the first vote report.

由于邮寄投票倾向于民主党,而选举日现场投票倾向于共和党,夜间初期公布邮寄投票结果可能使民主党候选人取得早期领先,而随着更多选举日结果的统计,共和党候选人可能缩小差距。计票通常需要多长时间?

Since mail voting tends to favor Democrats and in-person Election Day voting tends to favor Republicans, the release of mail voting results at the start of the night could result in an early lead for Democratic candidates, while Republican candidates may narrow the gap as more Election Day results are counted. How long does vote-counting usually take?

在2024年大选中,美联社首次报道结果是在美东时间晚上11点12分,即投票结束后12分钟。计票在美东时间凌晨12点56分达到一半。当晚最后一次投票更新是在周三美东时间凌晨4点24分,当时约有62%的总票数已被统计。美联社何时会宣布获胜者?

In the 2024 general election, the AP first reported results at 11:12 p.m. ET, or 12 minutes after polls closed. The vote count reached the halfway mark at 12:56 a.m. ET. The last vote update of the night was at 4:24 a.m. ET Wednesday, with about 62% of total votes counted. When will the AP declare a winner?

美联社不做预测,只有在确定不存在任何能让落后候选人缩小差距的情形时,才会宣布获胜者。如果竞选尚未被叫定,美联社将继续报道任何有新闻价值的进展,例如候选人认输或宣布胜利。在这样做时,美联社将明确表示尚未宣布获胜者,并解释原因。重新计票如何进行?

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why. How do recounts work?

加利福尼亚州没有自动重新计票。任何登记选民均可申请并支付费用进行重新计票。如果美联社能确定领先优势大到足以使重新计票或法律挑战无法改变结果,美联社可能会在面临重新计票的竞选中宣布获胜者。

There are no automatic recounts in California. Any registered voter may request and pay for a recount. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

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