我们的追踪器呈现了战争态势的转变。弗拉基米尔·普京似乎过得很惬意。他在华盛顿的朋友近期向俄罗斯提供了一项柴油出口协议，冻结了新的制裁，并限制了乌克兰使用“星链”卫星。在圣彼得堡最近的一次会议上，特使史蒂夫·威特科夫因普京同意释放一名美国囚犯而赞扬他：“先生，您也是一位人道主义者，我为此致敬，我赞许您。”
Our tracker visualises a shift in the war Vladimir Putin appears to be having a great time. His friends in Washington, DC recently offered Russia a deal on diesel exports, froze new sanctions and throttled Ukraine’s access to Starlink satellites. At a recent meeting in St Petersburg Steve Witkoff, a special envoy, praised Mr Putin for agreeing to release an American prisoner: “you are a humanitarian also, sir, and I salute that, I commend you.”
但我们的数据显示情况并非如此。乌克兰目前正在前线推进，尽管战果有限。随着俄军无法守住前线、更遑论向前推进，这位“人道主义者”普京正在加强对乌克兰城市及其平民赖以生存的基础设施的轰炸。
But our data say otherwise. Ukraine is now advancing along the front lines, although gains are modest. With his men unable to hold the front let alone push forward, Mr Putin—the “humanitarian”—is now stepping up his bombardment of Ukrainian cities and the infrastructure its civilians depend on.
为追踪战争态势，我们利用美国国家航空航天局（NASA）原本用于监测森林火灾的卫星数据。我们的算法筛选出与冲突相关的火点，从而能够近实时地绘制前线及纵深地区的冲突地图。
To track the war we repurpose satellite data from NASA that was built to monitor forest fires. Our algorithms pick out the blazes that are linked to the conflict, allowing us to map the conflict along the front and beyond, in near real time.
过去三个月，我们的追踪器记录的活动量超过了战争中任何可比时期。在此期间，乌克兰净获得了73平方公里领土——抵消了俄罗斯今年战果的一半。
Over the past three months our tracker has logged more activity than in any comparable period of the war. In that time Ukraine has made a net gain of 73 square km—wiping out half of Russia’s advances this year.
[图表：过去90天追踪到的火点 战争相关火点 其他火点 俄罗斯占领区]来自冲突监测机构ACLED的数据可用于追踪距离前线至少100公里以外的远程导弹和无人机袭击。截至10月23日的一个月内，俄罗斯袭击了290个民用基础设施目标，造成至少62名乌克兰平民死亡。[图表：过去90天报告的袭击]这些目标包括铁路，铁路为全国平民和军事物资提供重要连接。
Tracked fires, past 90 days War-related fires Other fires Occupied by Russia Data from ACLED, a conflict monitor, can be used to track long-range missile and drone strikes that are at least 100km beyond the front line. In the month to October 23rd Russia hit 290 civilian-infrastructure targets, killing at least 62 Ukrainian civilians. Reported attacks, past 90 days These include railroads, which provide vital links across the country for civilians and military supplies.
据乌克兰官员称，自全面入侵开始以来，已有500多列火车遭袭，其中仅今年就有300列。10月29日，俄罗斯无人机袭击第聂伯罗的一处火车站台，造成至少15人死亡。
More than 500 trains have been hit since the start of the full-scale invasion, including 300 so far this year, according to Ukrainian officials. On October 29th, a Russian drone attack on a train platform in Dnipro killed at least 15 people.
针对其能源基础设施的袭击——仅本月就至少发生了46起——后果更为严重。停电和限电正变得司空见惯。该国部分地区已面临定期停电。
Attacks on its energy infrastructure—including at least 46 this month alone—have even more devastating consequences. Blackouts and power cuts are becoming routine. Some parts of the country already face regular power cuts.
乌克兰加大了自身的远程打击力度，激怒了特朗普政府。大多数打击以军事设施为目标，但工厂、数据中心、港口、燃料储备库和炼油厂也遭到袭击。截至10月23日的一个月内，据报道发生了100多起远程袭击，造成11名俄罗斯平民死亡。
Ukraine has stepped up its own long-range strikes, angering the Trump administration. Most have targeted military sites, although factories, data centres, ports, fuel depots and refineries have been hit too. More than 100 long-range attacks have been reported in the month to October 23rd, killing 11 Russian civilians.
我们的分析显示，截至10月18日的一周内，双方的远程袭击次数均超过战争期间任何其他一周。（所谓美国斡旋的能源停火于10月11日宣布，看来是落空了。）武装冲突位置与事件数据项目（ACLED）的数据显示，俄罗斯的远程打击在6月至9月间增加了两倍，从每月130次增至453次。同期乌克兰的打击次数相对稳定，约为每月140次，但较之前几个月有显著上升。10月有望成为此类打击最严重的一个月。
Our analysis suggests there have been more long-range attacks from both sides during the week to October 18th than in any other week in the war. (So much for the supposed American-brokered energy ceasefire announced on October 11th.) Data from ACLED show Russia’s long-range strikes have tripled between June and September, rising from 130 a month to 453. Ukraine’s numbers were more stable, at roughly 140 a month over the same period, if a marked uptick on the months before. October is on track to be the worst month yet for these strikes.
每次袭击可能涉及数十枚弹射物。乌克兰空军称，今年以来俄罗斯已发射超过5.6万架无人机——较去年同期增长35%。导弹袭击增加22%至1766次。俄罗斯对基辅的袭击频率超过战争头几个月以来的任何时候。最新的空袭警报数据显示，该市现在每天上午8点至下午8点间约有110分钟处于警报状态，而夏季仅为19分钟。
Each attack can involve scores of projectiles. Ukraine’s air force says Russia has launched more than 56,000 drones since the beginning of the year—a 35% increase from the same period last year. Missile attacks have increased by 22% to 1,766. Russian strikes on Kyiv are more frequent than at any time since the first months of the war. The latest figures on air raids suggest the capital now spends about 110 minutes each day under alert between the hours of 8am and 8pm, up from just 19 minutes in the summer.
俄罗斯损失的士兵仍远多于乌克兰。我们的综合估算显示，俄罗斯阵亡人数为37.4万至77万，总伤亡人数（含受伤）为140万至210万。网站“UALosses”记录乌克兰士兵阵亡11.6万人，另有10.6万人失踪。
Russia is still losing far more soldiers than Ukraine. Our meta-estimate puts Russian fatalities at 374,000-770,000, and total casualties (including the injured) at 1.4m-2.1m. UALosses, a website, lists 116,000 Ukrainian soldiers as dead.
普京无论如何仍掌握主动权。他能造成更多痛苦，也能承受更多痛苦。他在华盛顿也占据上风。特朗普政府并未看到此处呈现的数据图景。对他们而言，乌克兰是陷入均势交锋的一方，而非俄罗斯实力与侵略的受害者。■ 标题：路透社 来源：武装冲突位置与事件数据项目；战争研究所；美国企业研究所关键威胁项目；美国国家航空航天局；《经济学人》
Another 106,000 are missing. Mr Putin retains the initiative, regardless. He can inflict more pain, and take it. He also holds the upper hand in Washington. The Trump administration does not see the data picture revealed here. For them, Ukraine is a party locked in balanced exchange, not the victim of Russian strength and aggression.■ HEADER: Reuters Sources: ACLED; ISW; AEI’s Critical Threats Project; NASA; The Economist