
以色列本周大选的结果让国会山的民主党议员们心情复杂。议员们表示,他们对大规模的选民投票率、对保守派总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡支持率的下降,以及其主要对手、退役将军加迪·艾森科特可能对最终组建的执政联盟产生的影响感到欣慰。在以色列-巴勒斯坦关系问题上,艾森科特被视为一个更温和的人物,其中包括他承诺遏制以色列定居者在约旦河西岸的暴力行为——这一立场使他与国会山的民主党人保持一致。
The results of Israel’s elections this week have left Democrats on Capitol Hill with a mixed bag of emotions. The lawmakers say they’re heartened by the massive voter turnout, the erosion of support for conservative Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and the potential influence of his top opponent, retired Gen. Gadi Eisenkot, over whatever governing coalition is ultimately formed.
“我希望这预示着将组建一个执政联盟,一个拒绝内塔尼亚胡执政时期我所认为的一些最严重错误的联盟,”众议院外交委员会资深成员、众议员马德琳·迪安(民主党-宾夕法尼亚州)周五在电话中表示。但民主党人也对结果的持续不确定性感到焦虑,因为所有党派都未达到在议会(Knesset)领先所需的61个席位。他们还对选举反映出的国家严重分裂表示担忧,这场选举被广泛视为对内塔尼亚胡领导力的公投,缘由是2023年10月7日哈马斯恐怖分子对以色列人的大屠杀。
Eisenkot is seen as a more moderate figure when it comes to Israeli-Palestinian relations, to include his vows to rein in Israeli settler violence in the West Bank — a position that aligns him with Democrats in the Capitol.
“其中一个迹象是,以色列绝非团结一致,那么他们将何去何从?”以色列在国会最直言不讳的盟友之一、众议员布拉德·施奈德(民主党-伊利诺伊州)周五同样在电话采访中表示。“只有时间才能给出答案。”施奈德将艾森科特描述为一个更讲道理的合作伙伴,援引了他遏制以色列定居者在约旦河西岸暴力行为的承诺。
“I hope it bodes well for a coalition, a governing coalition, who reject some of what I find are the most grievous errors of Netanyahu's time,” Rep. Madeleine Dean (D-Pa.), a senior member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said Friday by phone.
“他们所做的构成对和平的威胁,我认为艾森科特更致力于挫败并扼制这一点,”施奈德说。“这是至关重要的一点。”尽管如此,艾森科特并非自由派。
But the Democrats are also anxious about the lingering uncertainty surrounding the results, after all parties fell short of the 61 seats needed to lead the Knesset.
进步派民主党人担心,尽管艾森科特在定居者暴力问题以及对10月7日袭击事件进行更深入调查的必要性上与内塔尼亚胡决裂,但两位候选人都反对建立巴勒斯坦国——许多民主党人认为这是该地区任何持久和平协议的关键组成部分。众议院少数党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯(民主党-纽约州)一再主张建立自治的巴勒斯坦国是达成长期和平协议的唯一途径。
And they’re voicing concerns about the stark national divisions reflected by the election, which was broadly viewed as a referendum on Netanyahu’s leadership in the wake of the Oct. 7, 2023, massacre against Israelis by Hamas terrorists.
预计他在华盛顿特区辩论中的影响力将大幅增强,因为民主党有望在明年控制众议院,而杰弗里斯有望接任议长之职。他已经承诺将推动对一项立法进行表决,该立法旨在对从事被占约旦河西岸暴力活动的任何人实施经济制裁,并禁止其入境美国。该法案已获得175名众议院民主党人的联署。迪恩是其中之一。她表示,如果民主党明年控制众议院,该党“绝对”应该通过该法案。
"One of the signs is that there's anything but unity in Israel, and so where do they go from here?”Rep. Brad Schneider (D-Ill.), one of Israel’s most vocal congressional allies, said Friday, also in a phone interview.
“美国需要发挥领导作用,”她说。“我们需要让我们的声音被听到,不能指望[以色列领导人]。我们必须具备某种道德勇气和权威,说‘不再容忍’。这是一系列错误,包括杀戮,我们必须绝对地、大声地予以谴责。”周二的以色列大选是10月7日袭击事件发生以来的首次选举,当时从加沙地带出动的哈马斯武装分子杀害了约1200人,绑架了250多人。
“Only time will tell." Schneider characterized Eisenkot as a more reasonable partner, citing his commitment to curbing West Bank violence by Israeli settlers.
周五公布的最终结果显示,内塔尼亚胡的联盟在120个席位的克内塞特(以色列议会)中获得53个席位,而艾森科特的集团获得48个席位,阿拉伯政党联盟获得19个席位。民主党人迅速为内塔尼亚胡支持率的下滑欢呼,其席位从选举前的近70个下降。“这是以色列人民在说,‘我们想要一些不同的东西’,”施奈德说。“以色列没有人想牺牲他们的安全——无论他们是犹太人还是穆斯林,这都是真的。”
“What they are doing is a threat to peace, and I think Eisenkot is more committed to thwarting that, and squashing it,” Schneider said.
“他们都希望自己的孩子在安全与安稳中长大。”他补充道:“但我认为他们想要这届政府改变方向,这毫无疑问是以色列历史上最极端的政府。你在选举中看到了远离这种路线的趋势。”
“That's a critical thing.”Still, Eisenkot is no liberal. And progressive Democrats are worried that, despite Eisenkot’s break from Netanyahu on issues like settler violence and the need for a deeper investigation into the Oct. 7 attack, both candidates oppose the creation of a Palestinian state — a development many Democrats consider to be a crucial part of any lasting peace deal in the region.
接下来会发生什么仍不清楚。各阵营领袖预计将闭门会晤,试图拼凑某种形式的联盟,达到组成议会(克内塞特)多数所需的61个席位。最可能的情形包括内塔尼亚胡阵营与艾森科特阵营组建团结政府。另一种可能是,艾森科特的团体与阿拉伯政党联手,以共同反对内塔尼亚胡为纽带。如果无法组建此类联盟,以色列将举行再一次大选。
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) has repeatedly advocated for an autonomous Palestinian state as the only path to a long-term peace accord. His influence over the debate in Washington, D.C., is expected to grow tremendously, since Democrats are favored to control the House next year and Jeffries is in line to take the Speaker’s gavel.
在华盛顿,民主党处理对以关系的方式很可能受执政联盟的构成及其如何应对定居者暴力等问题的影响。“下一届政府为应对极端暴力所采取的行动,必将影响我们是支持他们的做法,还是施压要求他们采取进一步行动,”施奈德说。
迪恩则表示,阿拉伯政党影响力上升令她感到鼓舞,这些政党在议会中获得19个席位,创历史新高。“我希望在未来几周几个月里,更多阿拉伯人的声音和席位被听见,并能改变、缓和最终浮现的领导人,”她说。
Already, he’s promising to stage a vote on legislation to apply economic sanctions on anyone who engages in violence in the occupied West Bank, while barring them from entering the U.S. The bill has been sponsored by 175 House Democrats.
华盛顿的辩论也很可能受到一批与美国民主社会主义者组织有关联的自由派新任议员的影响。这些议员对以色列在巴勒斯坦人人权问题上的记录持高度批评态度,预计他们会将这种行动主义带到国会山。迪恩说,自内塔尼亚胡开始攻击加沙以来,国会对以色列的整体态度已发生更广泛的转变,这场攻击已导致7万多人死亡。
Dean is one of them. And she said the party should “absolutely” pass the bill if they control the House next year. “America needs to lead,” she said.
她对国会山将出现更多内塔尼亚胡批评者的前景感到兴奋。“人们迟迟未能将内塔尼亚胡先生同我们对以色列的热爱与支持区分开来,”迪恩说。“但我认为我们已在顺利推进这一进程,我希望新成员加入后能帮助我们以更有力的方式提出这一论点。”
“We need to have our voices heard, and we can't count on [Israeli leaders]. We have to have some moral courage and authority to say, ‘No more.’ “This is a series of wrongs, including killing, that we must absolutely, loudly, condemn.” Tuesday’s election in Israel was the first since the attack of Oct. 7, when Hamas militants operating out of Gaza killed roughly 1,200 people and kidnapped 250 more. The final results, unveiled Friday, left Netanyahu’s coalition with 53 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, while Eisenkot’s bloc held 48 seats and a group of Arab parties won 19. Democrats were quick to cheer the erosion of Netanyahu’s support, which fell from almost 70 seats before the elections. “That was the Israeli people saying, 'We want something different,’” Schneider said. “No one in Israel wants to sacrifice their security — that's true whether they're Jewish or Muslim. They all want their kids to grow up in safety and security." “But I think they want a change in direction from this government, which is unquestionably the most extreme government in Israel's history,” he added. “And you saw in the election a drift away from that." What happens next remains unclear. The leaders of the various blocs are expected to huddle behind closed doors in an effort to forge some form of coalition that hits the 61-seat mark constituting a Knesset majority. The most likely scenarios include the formation of a unity government between the Netanyahu and Eisenkot blocs. Alternatively, Eisenkot’s group could join forces with the Arab parties, bonded by a shared opposition to Netanyahu. If no such coalition can be built, Israel would stage another election. In Washington, the Democrats’ approach to Israel relations is likely to be influenced by the composition of the governing coalition and how it addresses things like settler violence. “The actions the next government takes to address the extremist violence will most certainly affect how we look at either supporting the actions they're taking, or putting pressure on [them] to take further action,” Schneider said. Dean, for her part, said she’s encouraged by the rising influence of the Arab parties, whose 19 seats in the Knesset is a new high mark. “What I do hope is, in these weeks and months coming up, more of the Arab voices and seats are heard and will change, will temper, whoever emerges as the leader,” she said. The debate in Washington is also likely to be influenced by the incoming group of liberal lawmakers affiliated with the Democratic Socialists of America. Those lawmakers have been highly critical of Israel’s human rights record towards Palestinians, and they’re expected to bring their activism to Capitol Hill. Dean said there’s been a broader attitudinal shift toward Israel in Congress since Netanyahu began attacking Gaza, which has led to the death of more than 70,000 people. She’s excited at the prospect of having more Netanyahu critics in the Capitol. “People were slow to separate Mr. Netanyahu from our love and support for Israel,” Dean said. “But I think we are well on our way, and I hope new members come in and help us make that argument in an even more robust way.”