
多年来,美国人工智能热潮背后的公司轻而易举地筹集了数千亿美元资金。华尔街热切地投入资本,鲜少提问。如今,力量对比正在发生转变。
For years, the companies behind America’s artificial-intelligence boom have raised hundreds of billions of dollars with ease. Wall Street eagerly ponied up capital and asked few questions. Now, the balance of power is shifting.
放贷人和投资者在押注对象上变得更加挑剔,并要求更苛刻的条款,标志着人工智能建设进入新阶段。他们的担忧包括:随着民间对数据中心的政治反弹日益升温,大型项目可能面临延期;以及超大规模科技公司、以及Anthropic和OpenAI等初创企业的人工智能相关利润,可能无法像承诺的那样快速兑现。
Lenders and investors are getting choosier about where to place their bets and are demanding tougher terms, signaling a new phase in the AI build-out. Among their concerns: the prospect of delays in big projects as a grassroots political backlash to data centers gains traction, and the threat that AI-related profits from hyperscalers and startups such as Anthropic and OpenAI won’t materialize as fast as promised.
此外,大量股票和债券发行加剧了投资者过度暴露于人工智能领域的担忧。
Plus, a flood of stock and bond offerings is compounding concerns that investors are getting overexposed to AI.
新的交易条款在市场的各个角落都清晰可见。即使是SpaceX和Meta等大型科技公司发行的债券,也在以大幅折价交易。CoreWeave、Nebius和Nscale等借贷巨资建设并出售算力的人工智能云服务公司,据知情人士透露,近几周实际上已被挡在债券市场之外。
The new terms of trade are visible in every corner of markets. Bonds issued even by big tech companies such as SpaceX and Meta are trading at steep discounts. AI cloud companies such as CoreWeave, Nebius and Nscale that borrow big to build and sell capacity have effectively been shut out of the bond market in recent weeks, people familiar with the matter said.
综合来看,这所有迹象都意味着华尔街已成为买方市场。即使是博通等实力雄厚的企业,也必须甜化提供给银行的条款才能获得贷款。太平洋投资管理公司(Pimco)首席投资官Dan Ivascyn表示:“向放贷人证明这项投资将转化为足够收入的门槛正变得越来越高。薄弱环节将首当其冲。”在股权市场融资也没容易多少。据知情人士透露,Nscale下月上市的希望落空,而竞争对手Lambda在新一轮融资中降低了寻求的估值。
Taken together, it all amounts to a buyer’s market for Wall Street. Even powerful players such as Broadcom are having to sweeten the terms offered to banks to secure loans. “The bar is going higher and higher in terms of proving to lenders that this investment will turn into sufficient revenue,” said Dan Ivascyn, chief investment officer at Pimco. “The weak links are going to suffer first.”Raising money in equity markets isn’t much easier.
股市开始反映出投资者的紧张情绪,担心 AI 的回报可能无法到来——至少在短期内不会。本周科技公司令人失望的财报引发了 AI 相关股票和债券的抛售潮,导致周五出现自 AI 狂热开始以来最大规模的市场抛售之一。谷歌母公司 Alphabet 周四遭遇史上最大单日股市市值蒸发,市值缩水约 5000 亿美元,此前发布的季度财报显示,其核心搜索业务收入增长放缓,而 AI 基础设施支出持续激增。
Nscale’s hopes of going public next month have been thwarted, while rival Lambda dialed back the valuation it was seeking in a new fundraising round, people familiar with the matter said. The stock market is starting to reflect investors’ nervousness that the AI payoff might not arrive—at least in the near term. Disappointing earnings reports from technology companies this week prompted a rout in AI-related stocks and bonds, leading Friday to one of the biggest market selloffs since AI-mania began.
市场震动也波及芯片制造商英特尔,该公司周五股价暴跌 29%,此前其报告称个人电脑业务疲软。科技股云集的纳斯达克综合指数周五下跌 2.9%,录得自 6 月以来最糟糕的单日表现。如果波动持续,融资可能变得更加困难。
Google parent Alphabet sustained its largest stock market wipeout ever Thursday, losing roughly $500 billion in market value, after quarterly results showed revenue from its core search business slowing while spending on AI infrastructure continues to surge. Tremors in the market also shook chip-maker Intel, which saw its share price plummet 29% on Friday after the company reported weakness in its personal computer business. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite dropped 2.9% on Friday, its worst day since June.
信誉良好的公司仍能获得资金。SpaceX 本周宣布筹集了有史以来规模最大的 AI 芯片融资,一笔 400 亿美元的融资包将使其能够采购英伟达最新一代芯片。
If the volatility continues, fundraising could grow even harder. There is still money available for creditworthy companies.
这一纪录仅保持了几小时,芯片设计巨头博通便敲定了一项 630 亿美元的交易,向 Anthropic 租赁芯片。但即使这笔交易也显示出当前环境的紧张:博通首席执行官陈福阳不得不在最后关头亲自介入谈判,以安抚银行的紧张情绪。
SpaceX this week announced it raised the biggest-ever financing for AI chips, a $40 billion package that will allow it to purchase the latest lineup of Nvidia chips. Its record only lasted a few hours, when chip-design giant Broadcom sealed a $63 billion deal to lease chips to Anthropic.
即使能够融资的公司,也担心其供应商的融资能力。Anthropic 计划在 11 月中旬的发行中筹集高达 1000 亿美元。其本周披露的 IPO 募股说明书将其数据中心所依赖的电力供应商面临的融资制约列为一项风险因素。
But even that deal showed the strains of the current environment: Broadcom Chief Executive Hock Tan had to personally intervene in negotiations at the last minute to calm banks’ nerves. Even companies that can raise money fret about their suppliers’ ability to do so. Anthropic is aiming to raise up to $100 billion in a mid-November offering.
Meta 在推出一项通过一系列新股发行筹集高达 975 亿美元资金的计划时,表示希望抢在竞争对手前面。在一份证券申报文件中,该公司指出 Alphabet、SpaceX、Anthropic 和 OpenAI 等公司近期及未来的融资活动,对资本市场的深度构成了挑战。
In its IPO prospectus unveiled this week, it called out as a risk factor the financing constraints for the electrical-power providers its data centers rely upon. Meta cited a desire to beat competitors to the punch when it unveiled a plan to raise up to $97.5 billion through a series of new stock offerings.
“每个人都在流动性枯竭前,试图为他们的建设筹集资金,”Carnegie Investment Counsel 首席投资官 Ben Connard 表示。
In a securities filing, it pointed to recent and future offerings from the likes of Alphabet, SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI as challenges to the depths of capital markets.
“归根结底,可能没有足够的资金来为这场建设提供资助,”他说。“融资可能成为最终拖慢进程的瓶颈。”自 ChatGPT 推出以来的几年里,AI 公司已耗尽了能找到的每一个资本来源,向风险投资人、选股者、银行家以及债券基金和私人信贷基金的管理者伸手要钱。
“Everybody is trying to raise money for their build-outs before the liquidity dries up,” said Ben Connard, chief investment officer of Carnegie Investment Counsel. “Ultimately, there might not be enough money to fund this build-out,” he said. “Financing could be the ultimate crunch that slows things down.”
据美国银行统计,在所有类型的美国企业债务市场中,与 AI 相关的发行总额在 2025 年达到 3940 亿美元,截至今年 10 月中旬已达 6550 亿美元。分析师预测,明年将有近 1 万亿美元的新增 AI 相关债务。
In the years since ChatGPT launched, AI companies have consumed every source of capital they could find, tapping venture capitalists, stock pickers, bankers and managers of bond and private-credit funds. Across all types of U.S. corporate debt markets, AI-linked issuance totaled $394 billion in 2025 and $655 billion through mid-October of this year, according to Bank of America.
在资本市场上最为活跃的参与者中,有所谓的“新云”公司,这些公司拥有或租赁数据中心,为其配备大量 AI 服务器,并签署合同向大型科技公司、交易公司和 AI 初创企业出售算力。它们也是 AI 领域对利率上升最为敏感的群体,因为其借贷成本在近期市场动荡之前就已处于高位。
Next year, analysts forecast nearly $1 trillion of fresh AI-linked debt. Among the most prolific participants in capital markets are so-called neoclouds, companies that own or lease data centers, outfit them with fleets of AI servers and sign contracts to sell computing power to big tech companies, trading firms and AI startups.
许多“新云”公司最初是加密货币挖矿企业,其中大多数几乎没有运营 AI 基础设施的历史。Nebius 曾是总部位于阿姆斯特丹、掌管俄罗斯最大互联网公司 Yandex 的企业。在莫斯科入侵乌克兰后,它剥离了主要资产,并在两年多前转型提供 AI 云计算服务,与包括 Meta 和 Microsoft 在内的科技公司签订了合同。
They are also the most sensitive in the AI sphere to rising interest rates, since their borrowing costs were already elevated before recent turmoil in the market. Many neoclouds started out as cryptocurrency mining outfits, and most of them have scant histories operating AI infrastructure. Nebius was once the Amsterdam-based company behind Yandex, Russia’s top internet company.
自 2024 年以来,Nebius 已向英伟达及其他投资者出售了约 27 亿美元股票,并发行了数十亿美元可转换债券,用于其 AI 扩张。但其对资本的渴求仍在继续。据知情人士透露,在夏季和初秋期间,Nebius 的银行家安排公司高管与基金经理会面,为潜在的高收益债券发行做准备。那将是 Nebius 首次发行此类债券。
It divested its main assets following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine and pivoted to providing AI cloud-computing services a little over two years ago, striking contracts with tech companies including Meta and Microsoft. Since 2024, Nebius has sold some $2.7 billion in stock to Nvidia and other investors and issued billions more in convertible bonds for its AI expansion. But its thirst for capital continues. Over the summer and early fall, Nebius’s bankers arranged for company executives to meet with fund managers in advance of a potential high-yield bond offering, people familiar with the matter said.
到 9 月,债务市场开始动荡。美联储三年来首次上调短期利率。电力供应和许可方面的挑战促使甲骨文通知一座此前同意租赁的大型新墨西哥州数据中心的开发商,将推迟开始支付全额租金的日期。这促使各地的贷款人重新评估其项目的建设风险。
It would have been Nebius’s first. By September, debt markets started to wobble. The Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates for the first time in three years. Challenges over power supply and permitting prompted Oracle to notify the developer of a huge New Mexico data center it previously agreed to lease that it was pushing back the date at which it would pay full rent.
CoreWeave 今年早些时候以 9.75% 的利率发行的债券,如今在二级市场上的收益率已升至 15% 以上,这表明在短时间内借贷成本变得昂贵了多少。银行家近几周警告称,面向新云服务商的高收益债券市场实际上已对新发行关闭。15% 或更高的收益率对借款人来说将是难以承受的。
That prompted lenders everywhere to re-evaluate construction risk on their projects. Bonds issued by CoreWeave at a 9.75% rate earlier this year now trade at a yield above 15% in the secondary market, an indication of how much more expensive it has become to borrow over a short period. Bankers cautioned in recent weeks that the high-yield market for neoclouds was essentially shut for new offerings.
Nebius 决定不再推进高收益债券发行。CEO Arkady Volozh 表示,公司不得不越来越有创意地筹集建设所需资金。这包括从客户处获得预付款。
Yields of 15% or more would be prohibitively expensive for borrowers. Nebius decided against pursuing a high-yield offering. CEO Arkady Volozh has said his company is having to be increasingly creative to secure the funds needed for its build-out.
“从上周开始,可能部分资金来源暂时关闭了,比如资产支持融资或债务市场,”Volozh 上周在柏林的一个会议上表示。“但我们现在正在利用客户预付款和其他几种工具,这大概能为我们提供足够的资金,至少建设这一吉瓦级(算力)设施。” Nebius 首席运营官 Ophir Nave 表示,尽管 Volozh 发表了上述言论,资产支持融资市场依然开放,公司未来计划利用该市场。他称,公司是否发行高收益债券将取决于利率和公司可获得的交易条款。
That includes getting prepayments from its customers. “From last week, probably some of the capital sources are temporarily closed, like the asset-backed or debt market,” Volozh said last week at a conference in Berlin. “But we’re working now with customer advances and several other instruments, which will probably provide us enough finance to build this gigawatt at least.”Ophir Nave, chief operating officer of Nebius, said that despite Volozh’s comments, the asset-backed financing market remains open, and the company plans to tap it in the future.
股权投资者也感到恐慌。据知情人士透露,正在寻求通过最后一轮 IPO 前融资筹集 40 亿美元的 Lambda,在包括科技投资公司 Coatue 在内的投资者决定不参与后,最近将目标估值从 145 亿美元下调至 130 亿美元。
Whether the company issues high-yield debt will depend on interest rates and the deal terms available to the company, he said. Equity investors are getting spooked, too.
总部位于英国的 neocloud 公司 Nscale,其董事会成员包括 Meta 前高管 Sheryl Sandberg 和 Nick Clegg,正准备在未来几个月内上市。据知情人士透露,该公司曾在 11 月的日历上圈定多个可能的 IPO 日期,但鉴于市场动荡,目前倾向于 12 月上市。
Lambda, which is seeking to raise $4 billion in a final round of pre-IPO fundraising, recently reduced its target valuation from $14.5 billion to $13 billion after investors including tech investment firm Coatue decided not to participate, according to people familiar with the matter. UK-based neocloud Nscale, which counts former Meta executives Sheryl Sandberg and Nick Clegg as board members, is preparing to go public in the coming months.
另一个因素是:据知情人士透露,Nscale 仍在与英伟达及其他投资者谈判,以期为 Anthropic 在西弗吉尼亚州的一座耗资 450 亿美元的数据中心提供财务支持。这些人士称,市场环境转变后,英伟达和其他潜在出资方开始要求更严苛的条款,导致 Nscale 更新 IPO 招股说明书的计划被推迟。所有这些不确定性让 Nscale 高管确信,在 Anthropic 上市之前,Nscale 很难完成上市。
The company had circled multiple dates on the calendar in November as possible candidates for its IPO, but is now leaning toward December given turbulence in the market, according to people familiar with the company’s plans. Another factor: Nscale is still negotiating with Nvidia and other investors to provide financial backing for a $45 billion data center for Anthropic in West Virginia, according to people familiar with the matter. After the market turned, Nvidia and the other potential backers began demanding more stringent terms, these people said, delaying Nscale’s plans to file a revised IPO prospectus.
据知情人士透露,该公司部分银行家已建议 Nscale,其 IPO 不太可能吸引足够需求,以实现此前 300 亿至 350 亿美元的目标估值。
All the uncertainty has convinced Nscale executives that it would be difficult to go public before Anthropic does.
最大的 AI 超大规模厂商处于信用风险谱系的另一端,与新云公司截然不同,但其融资计划的巨大规模开始引发问题。
Some of the company’s bankers have advised Nscale that it’s unlikely to attract enough demand in an IPO to achieve the $30 billion to $35 billion valuation they had been targeting, according to people familiar with the matter.
Meta、亚马逊、Alphabet 和微软拥有顶级信用评级,其资产负债表上仍有大量举债空间。但今年它们中的许多公司涌入优级债券市场发行新债——并发出信号称将在可预见的未来继续这样做——导致借钱给它们的投资公司、保险公司和养老金感到资金日益紧张,并担忧其在单一行业的集中度过高。
The largest AI hyperscalers sit on the opposite end of the credit risk spectrum from the neocloud companies, but the sheer scale of their fundraising plans is starting to cause problems. Meta, Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft carry top credit ratings and have significant room to pile debt on their balance sheets.
“实际的问题是,投资者在单一标的或单一主题上能承受多大程度的饱和?”Pimco 的 Ivascyn 表示。
But after many of them flooded the high-grade debt market with new bond sales this year—and signaled they plan to keep doing so for the foreseeable future—the investment firms, insurance companies and pension funds that lend to them are feeling increasingly tapped out, and concerned about their concentration in one sector. “There’s just the practical question of, how full can investors get on one name, or one theme?” said Pimco’s Ivascyn.
周五,多家超大规模厂商发行的债券价格跌至接近历史低位,收益率(与价格呈反向变动)已显著高于典型的投资级企业债收益率。
Prices of bonds issued by several hyperscalers dropped near record lows on Friday, and have fallen to the point where their yields—which move inversely—are significantly higher than those of typical investment-grade corporate bonds.
[视频] Anthropic 如何在华尔街击败 OpenAI从纯粹的资本成本角度来看,Meta 可能更倾向于借款,而不是像本周早些时候那样发行新股,惠灵顿管理公司固定收益投资组合经理 Brij Khurana 表示。
[video] How Anthropic Beat OpenAI to Wall Street Purely from a cost of capital standpoint, Meta likely would have preferred to borrow money rather than sell new equity as it did earlier this week, said Brij Khurana, a fixed-income portfolio manager at Wellington Management.
“机构资产管理界一直在抵制大规模云服务商发行过多债务,”他说。“这就是为什么你们看到多笔大额股权交易达成的原因。”
“The institutional asset management community has been pushing back on the hyperscalers from issuing too much debt,” he said. “That’s why you’ve seen a number of big equity transactions take place.”