
一位资深民主党策略人士在接受福克斯新闻数字频道采访时警告称,共和党竞选活动不力及候选人选择失误,正为民主党在周二大选中夺回参议院控制权敞开大门。
A top Democratic operative warned that poor campaigns and candidate choice from Republicans are opening the door for Democrats to seize control of the Senate during an interview with Fox News Digital.
曾在现任科罗拉多州州长贾里德·波利斯担任国会议员时出任其幕僚长的丹·特伦廷表示,在大选前夕,多个胶着的参议院竞选似乎正向民主党倾斜。
Dan Turrentine, who served as chief of staff to current Colorado Gov. Jared Polis when he was a member of Congress, said several close Senate races seem to be trending Democrat in the leadup to Tuesday's election.
“距离大选还有五天,民主党有相当大的机会重夺参议院控制权,”特伦廷说。
"Five days out, Democrats have a pretty good chance to retake the Senate," Turrentine said.
他列举了多个竞选,其中包括北卡罗来纳州,现任共和党参议员汤姆·蒂利斯不寻求连任。该席位长期以来一直是红州,但民调显示前州长罗伊·库珀对前共和党全国委员会主席迈克尔·沃特利保持着压倒性领先,该席位似乎即将易主。
He cited several races, including North Carolina, where incumbent Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is retiring. That seat, which has long been red, seems poised to flip as polls show former Gov. Roy Cooper holds a commanding lead over former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley.
共和党普遍预计将失去其在众议院的微弱多数优势,目前在参议院以53比47领先。除北卡罗来纳州外,俄亥俄州和密歇根州等摇摆州,以及得克萨斯州、堪萨斯州和密苏里州等通常属于深红州的多个参议院竞选出人意料地胶着,这让特伦廷等民主党人对能在周二全面掌控国会充满希望。
SENATE CONTROL IS A COIN FLIP — AND DEMOCRATS’ PATH RUNS THROUGH TRUMP COUNTRY Republicans, who are widely projected to lose their slim House majority, currently hold a 53-47 lead in the Senate. In addition to North Carolina, a number of surprisingly close Senate races in both swing states like Ohio and Michigan, and in typically deep red states such as Texas, Kansas and Missouri, have Democrats like Turrentine hopeful they can gain full control of Congress on Tuesday.
在肯定民主党竞选策略得当的同时,特伦廷也将共和党的短板归咎于他所谓的候选人素质低劣。他点名批评了得克萨斯州的肯·帕克斯顿、密西西比州的辛迪·海德-史密斯、堪萨斯州的罗杰·马歇尔,以及竞选接替其已故兄长、前参议员林赛·格雷厄姆席位的达琳·格雷厄姆·诺多内。
While crediting smart campaigning from Democrats, Turrentine also pinned Republican shortcomings on what he called poor candidate quality. He cited Ken Paxton in Texas, Cindy Hyde-Smith in Mississippi, Roger Marshall in Kansas and Darlene Graham Nordone, who is running to take the seat of her late brother, former Sen. Lindsey Graham.

“如果共和党失去参议院控制权,很可能是这四个席位中的一个失守,”主持播客节目《The Huddle》的特伦廷说,该节目由前白宫新闻秘书肖恩·斯派塞共同主持。“虽然总统的支持率是问题的一部分,但最后关头取决于候选人素质疲软。”但尽管民主党在民调中表现良好,特伦廷承认,之前的调查曾高估对其党派的支持。
"If Republicans lose the Senate, it’s likely one of those four loses," said Turrentine, who hosts "The Huddle" podcast with former White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer. "While the president's standing is part of the problem, that last mile comes down to weak candidate quality." But while Democrats are performing well in polls, Turrentine acknowledged that previous surveys have overstated support for his party.
“竞选团队对民调感到恐慌,”他说,并补充道,“接触选民比以往任何时候都更难;人们不再使用固定电话,且习惯性忽略陌生号码。”“我们经历了连续的变革选举——2016年、2022年、2024年——民调难以捕捉后期突发的动态。沮丧的特朗普选民会留在家里不投票,还是德克萨斯州民主党早期的激增仅反映了高投票倾向的选民提前锁定选票,而非扩大选民群体?没人知道,大家对周二(选举日)都提心吊胆,”他说。
"Campaigns are terrified about polling," he said, adding that "reaching voters is harder than ever; people don't have landlines and routinely ignore unknown numbers." "We’ve had consecutive change elections — 2016, 2022, 2024 — where polling struggled to capture late-breaking dynamics. Will frustrated Trump voters stay home, or will early Democratic surges in Texas just reflect high-propensity voters banking votes early rather than expanding the electorate? Nobody knows, and people have a knot in their stomach about Tuesday," he said.
在本周《纽约时报》爆出惊人报道、指控阿拉斯加民主党参议员候选人玛丽·佩尔托拉协助招募一名叫丹尼尔·J·沙利文的人参选、以对抗现任参议员丹尼尔·S·沙利文(共和党-阿拉斯加),表面上是为了混淆选民、让他们误投丹尼尔·J·沙利文而非现任参议员之前,特伦廷对民主党夺取参议院控制权甚至更有信心。佩尔托拉否认参与了前者沙利文的竞选活动。
Turrentine was a even more confident in a Democratic takeover of the Senate before this week's bombshell New York Times report alleging that Alaska Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola helped recruit a man named Daniel J. Sullivan to run against incumbent Sen. Daniel S. Sullivan, R-Alaska, to ostensibly confuse voters into accidentally choosing Daniel J. Sullivan over the incumbent senator. Peltola has denied any involvement in the former Sullivan's campaign.
“直到昨天,佩尔托拉在几乎每一项民调中都领先。像这些州中的许多一样,民主党靠不满的共和党人获胜。只要这些选民稍微觉得‘受不了这个民主党人’,局势就会改变,”特伦廷说,并补充道,这个“边疆州”现在可能已成势均力敌的摇摆州。
"Peltola has led almost every single poll until yesterday. Like so many of these states, Democrats win on disgruntled Republicans. It wouldn't take much for those voters to say they can't stomach the Democrat," said Turrentine, adding that the Frontier State may now be a tossup.

特伦廷说,如果阿拉斯加的参议员席位从民主党手中溜走,多数党地位可能取决于民主党能否赢下俄亥俄州、德克萨斯州,以及密歇根州、缅因州、堪萨斯州或密西西比州中的一个。
If Alaska's Senate seat slips from the Democrats' grip, a majority could come down to the Democrats winning Ohio, Texas and one of Michigan, Maine, Kansas or Mississippi, Turrentine said.
“在缅因州,我们整个职业生涯都在想着要击败[共和党现任参议员]苏珊·柯林斯。这一次感觉略有不同,但也没什么不同;她只落后一两个百分点。没有哪个民主党人希望多数党地位取决于缅因州或阿拉斯加,”他补充道。
"In Maine, we've spent entire careers thinking we’re going to defeat [GOP incumbent] Susan Collins. It feels slightly different this time, but it also doesn't; she’s within a point or two. No Democrat wants the majority coming down to Maine or Alaska," he added.
根据CNN最近的一项民调,柯林斯以45比49落后于格雷厄姆·普拉特纳的继任者特洛伊·杰克逊。
Collins trails Graham Platner replacement Troy Jackson 49-45, according to a recent CNN poll.

特伦廷表示,如果民主党确实夺回参议院控制权,他们将不得不应对党内日益高涨的社会主义浪潮和日益受欢迎的极左派。
If the Democrats do take the Senate, Turrentine suggested, they will have to contend with the rising tide of socialism and an increasingly popular far-left wing within the party.
“这种张力存在于我所谓的‘多数党缔造者’和党内基本盘之间……双方都觉得‘你需要我’,对吧?如果基本盘不出来投票,温和派就赢不了,”特伦廷补充道。
"This tension between who will be what I'll call the majority makers and the base that feels like... both feel like, 'You need me,' right? A moderate can't win if the base doesn't turn out," Turrentine added.
他转达了党内对众议院少数党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯的批评,后者若民主党从共和党手中夺回众议院控制权,有望成为议长。
He relayed party criticisms of House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who is poised to become speaker should the Democrats wrest control of the lower chamber from the GOP.

“没人知道哈基姆·杰弗里斯的立场究竟如何。也没人知道哈基姆·杰弗里斯到底是谁,”特伦廷说。
"Nobody knows where Hakeem Jeffries comes down. And no one knows who Hakeem Jeffries is," Turrentine said.
“佩洛西拥有两派的信任;哈基姆·杰弗里斯仍面临来自双方关于他立场的质疑,而与此同时[参议院少数党领袖]查克·舒默还在提防来自左翼的初选挑战,”他补充道。
"Pelosi had the trust of both wings; Hakeem Jeffries still faces questions from both sides about where he stands, all while [Senate Minority Leader] Chuck Schumer watches for a primary challenge from his left," he added.