
普京打破孤立状态,特朗普提供巨大助力从华盛顿收获胜利,俄罗斯领导人正与外国领导人通话,并可能通过可能的峰会会晤重返外交舞台中央。
Putin Breaks Down His Isolation, With a Big Assist From Trump Notching wins from Washington, the Russian leader is talking with foreign leaders and could return to diplomatic center stage with possible summit meetings.
他罕见地接听了芬兰和挪威领导人的电话。他在天然气出口国论坛上接待了卡塔尔埃米尔和伊朗总统。
He took a rare call from the Finnish and Norwegian leaders. He hosted Qatar’s emir and Iran’s president at a forum of gas-exporting countries.
他在莫斯科一处展览馆陪同非洲国家元首参观,建议他们控制本国社交媒体网络,否则将面临如同席卷法国那样的大规模抗议。在那里,他推介了俄罗斯版“星链”,但表示俄罗斯与埃隆·马斯克保持密切联系,并称他为“才华横溢的人”。俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·V·普京在过去一周在俄罗斯首都进行了一系列外交活动,这凸显了在他发动对乌战争近五年后,他正在挫败西方试图孤立他的企图,并强行挤回全球事务的舞台中央。
And he squired African heads of state around a Moscow exhibition, advising them to control social media networks in their own nations, or risk mass protests like those that have gripped France. There, he promoted Russia’s answer to Starlink, but said Russia was in close contact with Elon Musk, whom he called “a brilliant man.”President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia engaged in a frenzy of diplomatic activity in the Russian capital this past week that underscored how, nearly five years into his war against Ukraine, he is thwarting Western attempts to isolate him and muscling his way back to center stage in global affairs.
即使在升级战争且毫无妥协意愿的情况下,普京先生仍从美国赢得了赞誉、高层会晤邀请和让步。特朗普政府正考虑解除对俄罗斯旗舰主权投资基金制裁的消息传出,此前特朗普总统同意进口俄罗斯柴油,美国特使史蒂夫·威特科夫赞扬普京先生是一位人道主义者。
Mr. Putin has been winning praise, high-level meeting invitations and concessions from the United States, even while escalating the war and showing no intention of compromising. The news that the Trump administration is considering lifting sanctions on Russia’s flagship government investment fund came after President Trump agreed to import Russian diesel fuel and the U.S. special envoy, Steve Witkoff, praised Mr. Putin as a humanitarian.
“在克里姆林宫,我认为他们真的在庆祝,”德国对外关系委员会俄罗斯问题分析师斯特凡·迈斯特说。他补充道:“无论他们做什么或不做什么,都在得到他们甚至未曾预料到的东西。”普京定于11月前往中国深圳出席亚太经合组织论坛,届时如果与中国国家主席习近平和特朗普举行可能的三方会晤,将使俄罗斯看似与两个全球超级大国处于平等地位。随后,如果他接受特朗普发出的邀请,12月可能前往迈阿密出席二十国集团峰会,这令一些美国盟友感到沮丧。
“In the Kremlin, I think they are really celebrating,” said Stefan Meister, a Russia analyst at the German Council on Foreign Relations. He added, “No matter what they are doing or not doing, they are getting things they didn’t even expect.”Mr. Putin is slated to travel to Shenzhen, China, in November for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, where a possible trilateral meeting with Xi Jinping of China and Mr. Trump would put Russia on apparently equal footing with the two global superpowers. He could then go to Miami in December for the Group of 20 summit, should he accept an invitation that Mr. Trump extended, to the dismay of some U.S. allies.
随着普京逐步瓦解西方对他的孤立,美国与乌克兰的关系持续恶化,凸显了基辅在预计将是战争中最严酷的一个冬天来临前的脆弱性。
As Mr. Putin chips away at his ostracism in the West, relations between the United States and Ukraine have continued to deteriorate, underscoring Kyiv’s vulnerability ahead of what is expected to be the worst winter of the war.
上个月,特朗普公开敦促乌克兰人更换总统泽连斯基,并称他是和平的障碍。随后,乌克兰军方失去了对埃隆·马斯克“星链”卫星互联网星座军用版本的部分关键访问权限。乌克兰制造的美国防空系统库存告急。
Last month, Mr. Trump publicly urged Ukrainians to replace President Volodymyr Zelensky and called him an obstacle to peace. Then the Ukrainian military lost some critical access to the military version of Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite internet constellation. Ukraine is running low on U.S.-made air defenses.
多年来,普京一直暗示他能比乌克兰的美国和欧洲支持者更持久。随着特朗普倒向基辅的对立面并寻求与莫斯科达成更多交易,而动荡和潜在债务危机助推法国极右翼崛起,普京可能觉得他的等待即将获得回报。
For years, Mr. Putin has suggested that he can outlast the resolve of Ukraine’s American and European backers. With Mr. Trump turning against Kyiv and entertaining more deals with Moscow, while unrest and a potential debt crisis boost the far right in France, Mr. Putin may feel that his waiting is about to pay off.
“普京的印象是他对了,”迈斯特说。“他只需等待,最终能从特朗普那里得到比他做梦都想不到的更多东西。”随着美乌裂痕加大,欧洲已陷入危险时刻,难以就能否直接与普京对话以及若对话由谁出面达成一致。
“Putin has the impression that he was right,” Mr. Meister said. “That he had to wait it out and in the end he can get more than he could have dreamed of from Trump.”As the rift between the United States and Ukraine grows, Europe has reached a perilous moment, struggling to agree on whether to speak directly to Mr. Putin and if so, who should do the talking.
芬兰总统亚历山大·斯图布和挪威首相约纳斯·加尔·斯特勒周二致电普京先生,普京先生后来将此描述为一些欧洲领导人希望进行建设性对话的迹象。
President Alexander Stubb of Finland and Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store of Norway called Mr. Putin on Tuesday, in what Mr. Putin later characterized as a sign that some European leaders want constructive dialogue.
此次通话在欧洲内部引发争议,丹麦首相梅特·弗雷泽里克森指责芬兰和挪威领导人“单独行动”。但迈斯特先生表示,此次通话是对欧洲面临危险的认知。“他们真的担心有一个临界点,我们正在失去美国,”他说。
The call prompted controversy within Europe, with Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen of Denmark accusing the Finnish and Norwegian leaders of “going solo.”But Mr. Meister said the call was a recognition of the danger facing Europe. “They are really afraid there is a breaking point and we are losing the U.S.,” he said.
数周来,普京先生一直在批评欧洲领导人,指责他们承担了过多债务,因拒绝俄罗斯天然气而推高了本国民众的成本,并因向乌克兰提供援助而未能代表其社会的真实利益。
For weeks, Mr. Putin has been criticizing European leaders, accusing them of taking on too much debt, driving up costs for their people by refusing Russian gas, and failing to represent their society’s real interests by sending aid to Ukraine.
“欧洲通过放弃俄罗斯能源供应和撕毁长期合同,正在给自己的工业和社会领域造成打击,”他在周二于莫斯科举行的天然气出口国活动上表示。“你知道,俄罗斯有句谚语:‘不要给别人挖坑,否则你自己可能会掉进去。’”詹姆斯·马丁防扩散研究中心分析师、普京外交政策著作《我们将比他们更长久》作者汉娜·诺特表示,俄罗斯领导人显然将言论瞄准了法国和德国,那里的极右翼政党很受欢迎,并以终止对乌克兰援助为竞选纲领。法国极右翼领导人玛丽娜·勒庞在明年春季总统大选的民调中领跑。
“Europe is dealing a blow to its own industry and social sector by abandoning Russian energy supplies and tearing up long-term contracts,” he said at a gas exporters’ event in Moscow on Tuesday. “You know, there is a saying in Russian: ‘Don’t dig a pit for others, or you may fall into it yourself.’”Hanna Notte, an analyst at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies and the author of a book on Mr. Putin’s foreign policy, “We Shall Outlast Them,” said the Russian leader was clearly aiming his comments at France and Germany, where far-right parties are popular and campaigning on ending support for Ukraine. The French far-right leader, Marine Le Pen, leads in polling for the presidential election next spring.
“这是俄罗斯一段时间以来一直在推动的路线,在各欧洲国家大选前这样做完全讲得通,”诺特女士说。
“This is the line that Russia has been pushing for a while, and it makes total sense to do this ahead of elections in various European countries,” Ms. Notte said.
诺特女士表示,其目的是让欧洲选民相信,政治家们“并非为本国民众的利益行事,他们花费巨资实现军事化、为与俄罗斯的战争做准备,而不是解决国内的社会问题——典型例子就是法国及其抗议活动。”保罗·松内是莫斯科分社社长,负责统筹俄罗斯、高加索和中亚地区的报道。他常驻柏林。
The aim, Ms. Notte said, is to convince European voters that politicians “are not acting in the interests of their own people, that they are spending all that money to militarize, to prepare for a war against Russia, instead of dealing with their own social problems at home — exhibit A being France and the protests.”Paul Sonne is the Moscow bureau chief, leading coverage of Russia, the Caucasus and Central Asia. He is based in Berlin.