2026年大选的结果可能通过州税和新增债券供应影响市政债券。
The outcome of the 2026 election could affect munis through state taxes and new bond supply.
下一届国会的组成也可能产生影响，因为立法者将处理财政和政策问题。专家认为，市政债券目前为投资者提供了一个有吸引力的机会。预计周二的选举结果将对市场产生广泛影响，包括市政债券市场。
The makeup of the next Congress may also have repercussions, as lawmakers tackle fiscal and policy issues. Experts believe munis now offer investors an attractive opportunity. The outcome of Tuesday's election is expected to have broad implications across the market, including municipal bonds.
焦点一直集中在国会控制权之争，以及民主党是否会从共和党手中夺取众议院、参议院或两者。但对于市政债券市场而言，州一级发生的事情可能产生更大的影响——至少在短期内是这样。
The spotlight has been on the battle for congressional control and whether Democrats will wrest the House of Representatives, the Senate or both from Republicans. But for the muni market, what happens at the state level could have bigger repercussions — at least in the near term.
全国各地的选票上有大量倡议，可能改变税法并增加债券供应。税收对市政债券投资者很重要，因为所得收入免征联邦税，如果持有人居住在债券发行所在州，还免征州税。
There is an array of initiatives on ballots around the nation that could change tax laws and add to bond supply. Taxes matter to muni investors since the income received is free of federal tax, as well as state tax if the holder lives in the state where the bond is issued.
红州与蓝州的税收 根据地点不同，选票上有待批准的措施，要么提供减税，要么对富人增税。
Red vs. blue taxes Depending on the location, ballot measures are up for approval that would either provide tax breaks, or raise taxes on the wealthy.
“红州和蓝州之间存在完全的两极分化，”励进投资市政债券部门负责人丹·克洛斯说。“蓝州试图建立累进所得税结构，试图从高收入者那里获取更多税收。红州试图通过削减房产税来促进可负担性。”红州是指主要投票给共和党的州，蓝州则倾向于民主党。
"It's a complete bifurcation between red and blue states," said Dan Close, head of municipals at Nuveen. "Blue states are trying to put in place graduated income tax structures, trying to capture more revenue from high-income earners. Red states are promoting affordability by trying to cut property taxes." Red states are those that predominantly vote Republican, while blue states swing toward Democrats.
例如，加利福尼亚州有一项被称为“亿万富翁税”的提案，将对某些拥有至少10亿美元资产的纳税人征收相当于其财富5%的一次性税款。该州选票上还有一项措施，将对年收入超过37.1万美元的个人的临时增税变为永久性，并每年根据通胀调整。该税目前定于2031年到期。
For instance, California has a proposition known as the " billionaire tax " which would impose a one-time levy equal to 5% of the wealth of certain taxpayers with at least $1 billion in assets. The state also has a measure on the ballot that would make a temporary tax hike permanent on individuals earning over $371,000, adjusted annually for inflation. The tax is currently set to expire in 2031.
“市政债券市场的影响将是使免税更具价值，”Close在谈到可能通过增税时表示。投资者可能会寻求在市政债券市场避险，这将推高债券价格，他指出。
"The impact to the muni bond market will be to make the exemption more valuable," Close said of the possible passage of tax increases. Investors will likely seek shelter in the muni market, which would send bond prices higher, he noted.
佛罗里达州的情况则不同，该州选民将决定是否提高“阳光之州”非学区房产税的住宅免税额。符合条件的房主目前享有2.5万美元的房产税免税额，以及另一项不适用于学校房产税的2.5万美元免税额。新提案将后一项免税额提高到2027年的15万美元，到2028年提高到25万美元。新居民在获得该福利前有五年的等待期。
It is a different story in Florida, where voters are set to decide whether to increase the Sunshine State's homestead exemption for non-school district property taxes. Qualified homeowners currently have a $25,000 property tax exemption, as well as another for $25,000 that doesn't apply to school property taxes. The new proposal raises the latter exemption to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 by 2028. New residents have a five-year waiting period before receiving the benefit.
如果该提案通过，一些地方政府将不得不寻找其他收入来源或提高总体税率，以弥补损失，HilltopSecurities公共政策和市政策略主管Tom Kozlik表示。
If passed, some local governments will have to find other revenue sources or increase the overall tax rate to replace what they've lost, said Tom Kozlik, head of public policy and municipal strategy at HilltopSecurities.
“这不一定会导致确定的降级，但就总体收入而言，将不得不进行一些平衡，”他说。
"It's not necessarily going to result in downgrades for sure, but there would have to be some balancing with regard to overall revenues," he said.
并非所有市政当局都会受到同等影响，这意味着信用研究很重要，Close表示。
Not all municipalities will be hurt equally, which means credit research is important, said Close.
“就像市政金融中的一切一样，房产税回滚可能导致信用恶化，这确实是个案个案分析的问题，”他说。
"Like everything in municipal finance, it is really on a case-by-case basis that you could have some credit deterioration from [a] rollback of property taxes," he said.
供应增加周二，其他选民将被要求批准更多州或地方政府债务。这可能会给已经面临供应增加的市场带来压力。
Increased supply Other voters on Tuesday will be asked to approve more state or local government debt. That could weigh on a market that has already seen heightened supply.
根据证券业和金融市场协会的数据，截至9月，今年以来已发行4738亿美元，较去年同期增长7.8%。
Some $473.8 billion has already been issued year to date, through September, according to the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association That's a 7.8% increase over the same period a year ago.
Sifma表示，2025年市政债券总发行量达到5873亿美元，比2024年增长14.3%。
In 2025 total muni issuance reached $587.3 billion, 14.3% higher than 2024, Sifma said.
施瓦布金融研究中心固定收益研究和策略主管Cooper Howard认为，供应是选举后最大的问题。
Cooper Howard, director of fixed income research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, believes supply is the biggest issue coming out of the election.
“发行量如此之大，之所以必须看到强劲的需求继续与之保持同步，才能让总回报跟上，”霍华德说。
"That amount of issuance has been one of the reasons why you have to see that strong amount of demand continue to keep pace with it for total returns to keep up," Howard said.
幸运的是，新增供应不一定会迅速进入市场。“他们有几年的时间窗口可以发行，”他指出。
Fortunately, new supply doesn't necessarily come quickly into the market. "There's a window over a couple years that they can issue," he noted.
下一届国会的最终构成也可能对市政债券投资者产生影响，因为立法者正在厘清优先事项。希尔托普公司的科兹利克表示，最值得注意的是，立法者将如何解决该国的可负担性问题。
The ultimate makeup of the next Congress could also have consequences for muni investors as lawmakers sort out their priorities. Most notable is what lawmakers will do to tackle the country's affordability problem, Kozlik at Hilltop said.
“明年第一季度可能会出现一些税收政策举措，甚至与可负担性相关的举措，”他说。“这可能会影响住房，可能会影响高等教育，也可能会影响公共电力融资。”
"There could be some tax policy initiatives and even affordability-related initiatives that manifest themselves in the first quarter of next year," he said. "That could impact housing. It could impact higher education. It could impact public power financing."
现在的机会：努文公司的克洛斯表示，考虑在选举前采取行动的投资者，或许可以关注那些选票中有税收提高议题的州。
Opportunities now Investors considering moves before the election may want to look at those states with tax increases on the ballot, said Close at Nuveen.
例如，努文公司最近开始为华盛顿州提供一个专门的单独管理账户，此前该公司收到了大量来自财务顾问的询问。该州最近对年应税收入超过100万美元的个人实施了9.9%的税率，该税率计划于2028年生效。但该问题现在提交给选民，由他们决定是否废除这项新法律。
For instance, Nuveen recently began offering a separately managed account dedicated to Washington after getting an enormous number of inquiries from financial advisors. The state recently enacted a 9.9% tax on individuals with taxable annual income above $1 million, set to go into effect in 2028. But the issue is now being put to voters, who can decide whether to repeal the new law.
“从边际上看，如果你认为这些措施中的一些会通过，并且知道债券通常会随税收上涨而上涨，那么在选举前为蓝州债券买入可能会有一些机会，”克洛斯说。
"At the margin, if you do think that some of these measures are going to pass, knowing that bonds usually move up with an increase in taxes, there might be some opportunities to buy ahead of the election for blue states," Close said.
霍华德认为，市政债券目前很有吸引力，特别是对于处于24%或更高税率档次的人。基本面良好，债券的信用质量大多也不错，他说。“广泛市政债券指数中，约70%是AAA或AA评级。”科兹利克也持看涨态度，称收益率“非常有吸引力”。他建议投资者集中关注AA或更高评级的债券。
Howard believes munis are attractive right now, particularly for those who are in a tax bracket of 24% or above. Fundamentals are good and the bonds largely have good credit quality, he said. "About 70% of the broad muni index is either triple-A or double-A rated." Kozlik is also bullish, calling yields "really attractive." He suggests investors concentrate on AA-rated or higher bonds.
“市政债领域是大多数投资者想要配置的板块，”他说。“它能让他们睡个安稳觉。”
"The muni space is part of the portfolio that most investors want," he said. "It helps them sleep well at night."