上周末，股市迎来了期盼已久的波动冲击，科技巨头令人失望的财报加剧了围绕人工智能驱动涨势的焦虑。
The stock market got a long-awaited jolt of volatility late last week after disappointing earnings from technology giants added to angst around the AI-driven rally.
现在，交易员正为本周可能出现的进一步冲击做准备，包括美国中期选举和英伟达公司稍晚将于11月发布的财报。
Now traders are bracing for further shocks this week from the US midterm elections and Nvidia Corp. earnings later in November.
周五，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数（VIX）触及自4月以来的最高盘中水平，标普500指数录得自6月以来最大单日跌幅。用于防范进一步下跌的看跌期权溢价也随之飙升，股票间的相关性亦随之上升，这可能预示着市场面临更广泛的压力。尽管如此，这些指标仍远低于3月美国和以色列袭击伊朗后的水平。
The Cboe Volatility Index on Friday touched the highest intraday level since April as the S&P 500 dropped the most since June. The premium for puts protecting against further losses also surged, as did correlations among stocks, which can signal broader stress in the market. Still, those measures remain well below the levels in March after the US and Israel attacked Iran.
随着英伟达即将发布财报，此前亚马逊公司、Alphabet公司和英特尔公司的业绩均令人失望，投资者正为更多波动事件做准备。交易员也在密切关注美国中期选举结果，以评估其对伊朗战争和国内经济政策的潜在影响。
With Nvidia due to report earnings, following disappointing results from Amazon.com Inc., Alphabet Inc. and Intel Corp., investors are preparing for more episodes of volatility. Traders are also eyeing US midterm election results for the potential effect on the war in Iran and domestic economic policy.
“这看起来更像是核心估值下调下的牛市轮动，而非广泛市场恶化的开始，”伦巴第奥迪亚投资管理公司宏观研究主管Florian Ielpo表示。
“This looks more like a bullish rotation with a derating at its core than the beginning of a broad market deterioration.,” said Florian Ielpo, head of macro research at Lombard Odier Investment Management.
到目前为止，最近的抛售主要集中在科技板块，投资者正从今年领涨的高飞股票中轮动离场。上周，美国基准指数的60天已实现波动率触及一年多来的最低点，今年的低相关性以及零日期权交易者逢低买入、逢高卖出的倾向，有助于抑制市场波动。
So far, the latest selloff has been largely focused on the technology sector, with investors rotating away from the high-flying firms that led the gains this year. Realized 60-day volatility on the US benchmark last week touched the lowest in more than a year, with the low correlation this year and tendency of zero-day options traders to buy dips and sell rallies helping to restrain moves.
近期的下跌发生在相对平静的一年中。虽然2025年因关税动荡在4月出现了一系列极端市场波动，但2026年美国股市在很大程度上无视了油价和利率的飙升。
The late-week slide comes in a year that’s been relatively placid. While 2025 saw a cluster of extreme market swings around the tariff tumult in April, in 2026 US stocks have largely shrugged off spikes in oil prices and interest rates.
尽管以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数刚刚结束自2025年以来表现最差的一个月，但部分投资者已在押注反弹。周五，基准指数以及英特尔等跌幅最大的科技股均出现了看涨期权和看涨价差买入的迹象。
But even as the technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 capped its worst month since 2025, some investors were betting on a recovery. There were pockets of call and call spread buying seen Friday on the benchmark indexes and some of the most beaten-down tech names such as Intel.
在本周后半段出现更大幅度波动之前，期权价格相对较高，恐慌指数（VIX）处于过去五年区间的高位，远高于20日已实现波动率。
Options were relatively pricey before the larger gyrations late in the week, with the VIX at the higher end of the range over the past five years compared with 20-day realized swings.
除了对人工智能的担忧，交易员还在关注伊朗谈判的进展，这可能决定美国军事行动的走向，以及中期选举后的油价走势。
Beyond the AI worries, traders are also eyeing the status of Iran talks, which could determine the trajectory of US military action, and oil prices, after the midterms.
部分投资者似乎在为战争结束做仓位部署，这场冲突已遏制了该地区数月的供应。本周早些时候，达美航空、联合航空控股和通用电气均出现看涨价差买入，这些公司都将从中东和平中受益。
Some investors appeared to be positioning for an end to the war, which has curbed supply from the region for months. Earlier in the week, call spreads were bought in Delta Air Lines Inc., United Airlines Holdings Inc. and General Electric Co., all of which would benefit from peace in the Middle East.
“变数依然是伊朗局势缓和，我认为我们已通过航空股和通用电气的看涨价差看到了对此的仓位部署，”Susquehanna International Group衍生品策略联席主管Christopher Jacobson表示。
“The wild card is still Iran de-escalation and I think we’ve seen positioning for potential for that through some of the call spreads in the airlines and GE,” said Christopher Jacobson, co-head of derivatives strategy, Susquehanna International Group.
美国中期选举本身被视为不如财报和中东局势重要，标普500期权市场对事件风险的定价在过去几周保持相当稳定，约为次日0.9%的波动幅度。
The US midterm elections themselves are seen as less important than earnings and the Middle East, with the S&P 500 option market’s pricing of the event risk remaining fairly constant over the past weeks at about a 0.9% move for the following session.
Winhall Analytics/OptionMetrics撰稿人Brett Friedman对中期选举年市场回报与波动率的分析显示，中期选举前后市场回报较高、波动率较低。不过，Friedman指出，在国会控制权发生剧烈变化的年份，回报缺乏一致性，更容易为负值。
alysis of midterm election years and market volatility by Brett Friedman, a contributor at Winhall Analytics/OptionMetrics, shows that higher market returns and lower volatility surround midterm elections. However, Friedman notes that in years where control of Congress shifts dramatically, returns are less consistent and more prone to be negative.
随着散户投资者近期资金流入杠杆科技交易所交易基金（ETF），半导体板块的走势可能会因ETF再平衡资金流而加剧，这些资金流会买入上涨、卖出下跌，以维持基金的目标杠杆率。
With recent inflows from retail investors into leveraged tech exchange-traded funds, moves within semiconductors may be exacerbated by ETF re-balancing flows which buy into rallies and sell into declines to maintain target fund leverage.
此次抛售可能为部分交易者提供布局反弹的机会。由于对冲基金净敞口处于低位，利好宏观消息可能引发显著的向上波动，因为投资者会重新调仓以迎接年底反弹。
The selloff could offer opportunities for some traders to position for a recovery. With hedge funds running low net exposure, positive macro headlines could result in significant upside volatility as investors reposition for a year-end rally.
“在波动率低、对冲基金净敞口有限的情况下，看涨期权提供了一种保留年底前向上敞口的有吸引力的方式，”Ielpo表示。
“With volatility low and hedge funds running limited net exposure, calls offer an attractive way to retain upside exposure into year-end,” said Ielpo.