卡塔尔在过去72小时内一直主导着紧张的斡旋努力，旨在防止周二中期选举后美国可能对伊朗发动新一轮袭击。这种不确定性让整个海湾地区都感到紧张。转录萨查·菲费尔，主持人：与此同时，美国和以色列正在为周二中期选举后可能对伊朗发动打击做计划，卡塔尔在过去72小时内一直主导着紧张的斡旋努力，试图阻止这种情况发生。
Qatar has been leading intense mediation efforts over the past 72 hours to prevent a new round of possible U.S. attacks on Iran after Tuesday's midterm elections. The uncertainty has the entire Gulf region on edge. Transcript SACHA PFEIFFER, HOST: Meanwhile, the U.S. and Israel are planning for possible strikes on Iran after Tuesday's midterms, and Qatar has been leading intense mediation efforts over the past 72 hours to try to prevent that from happening.
接下来会发生什么的不确定性让整个海湾地区都感到紧张。NPR国际记者阿亚·巴特拉维在巴林，她将与我们讨论这一切。你好，阿亚。阿亚·巴特拉维，通讯员：你好，萨查。
The uncertainty of what comes next has the entire Gulf region on edge. NPR's international correspondent Aya Batrawy is in Bahrain, and she's with us to talk about all this. Hi, Aya. AYA BATRAWY, BYLINE: Hey, Sacha.
菲费尔：先来问一个两部分的问题——这些斡旋努力是什么样子的，特朗普总统对另一次对伊朗发动攻击的可能性说了什么，如果有的话？
PFEIFFER: To start us off, a two-part question - what do these mediation efforts look like, and what has President Trump said, if anything, about how likely another attack on Iran is?
巴特拉维：好的。卡塔尔一直对正在发生的事情守口如瓶。他们确实有一些调解人访问了德黑兰，伊朗也有一个代表团在卡塔尔多哈——所有这些都发生在过去72小时内。但伊朗外长阿巴斯·阿拉格齐今天在伊朗官方媒体被引用说，这些斡旋努力还没有得出最终结论。但他说，有关一个两天计划的讨论。这基本上包括伊朗不在霍尔木兹海峡攻击船只，以便华盛顿和德黑兰之间的直接谈判能够重新开始。
BATRAWY: All right. So Qatar has been really tight-lipped about what's been going on. They did have some mediators visiting Tehran, and also Iran had a delegation in Doha, Qatar - all of this over the past 72 hours. But Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, today, was quoted in Iranian state media saying there's still no definitive conclusion to these mediation efforts. But he said there is talk of a two-day plan. That would include basically the Iranians not attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz to allow for direct talks to begin again between Washington and Tehran.
特朗普被问及重启与伊朗战争的可能性。他在马阿拉歌的万圣节派对上，他说，我们没有那么着急。请听。
And Trump was asked about the possibility of restarting the war with Iran. He was at a Halloween party at Mar-a-Lago, and he said, we're not in that much of a hurry. Have a listen.
唐纳德·特朗普总统：我们几乎摧毁了那里的每一件军事装备。我们摧毁了他们的许多制造能力。我们摧毁了核设施。我们摧毁了他们的核设施。我们仍然要处理，我可以说，一两个地点，但我们可以在10分钟内完成。
PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: We've knocked out almost every piece of military equipment there. We've knocked out a lot of their manufacturing capabilities. We've knocked out the nuclear. We've knocked out their nuclear. We still have to take care of, I would say, one or two sites, but we can do that in 10 minutes.
巴特劳伊：正如您刚才听到的，特朗普总统并未明确表示周二选举后他可能会采取什么行动。现在，我在海湾地区与之交谈的每个人——从高级欧洲外交官到阿拉伯军方将领——都不知道特朗普会做什么，但海湾地区数千万人的生命都系于他的决定。
BATRAWY: So as you heard there, President Trump isn't really saying what he might do after Tuesday's elections. Now, everyone I have been speaking to in the Gulf - from senior European diplomats to Arab military generals - no one has any idea what Trump will do, but the lives of tens of millions of people in the Gulf hinge on his decision.
派费尔：我们多次听到特朗普总统说，伊朗基本上已经完蛋了。您刚才为我们播放的片段中，我们又听到他这么说了一次。根据您的报道，这有多大程度属实？
PFEIFFER: And we have heard President Trump say many times that Iran is essentially finished. We heard him say that again in the cut you just played for us. Based on your reporting, how true is that?
巴特劳伊：是的。我的意思是，八个月前美国和以色列发动这场战争后，伊朗遭受了重创，该国最高领导人、顶级军事指挥官被杀，许多船只、导弹生产设施被摧毁。但是，即使经过八个月的战争和美国严厉的经济制裁，战争并未像以色列宣称的既定目标那样推翻伊朗政权。而且，伊朗革命卫队部队仍然有能力对海湾阿拉伯国家造成伤害。
BATRAWY: Yeah. I mean, Iran was hit hard after the U.S. and Israel launched this war eight months ago, killing the country's supreme leader, top military commanders, taking out many of its ships, missile production sites. But even after eight months of war and crippling U.S. economic sanctions, the war has not toppled Iran's regime as Israel said it was its stated goal. And Iran's Revolutionary Guard force is still very capable of inflicting pain on Gulf Arab countries.
这些国家是世界上最重要的石油和天然气生产国之一，这场战争以及伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡，已导致全球石油和天然气价格上涨。今天布伦特原油价格比战争前上涨了60%。
These are some of the world's most important oil and gas producers, and this war and Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused oil and gas prices to rise globally. Brent crude oil is 60% higher today than it was before the war.
派费尔：阿亚，你说伊朗可能会对其他海湾阿拉伯国家造成伤害。伊朗是否表示，如果再次遭到攻击，它会采取什么行动？
PFEIFFER: Aya, you said that Iran could inflict pain on other Gulf Arab countries. Is Iran saying what it would do if it's attacked again?
巴特劳伊：是的。本周末，伊朗最高领导人莫杰塔巴·哈梅内伊向伊朗武装部队高级指挥官传达的信息是，任何对该国的威胁都必须立即做出回应，而且，引述，“不受地理限制”。现在，伊朗官方媒体表示，这意味着任何新的以色列或美国对伊朗的攻击，将造成比我们已经看到的更大的破坏。
BATRAWY: Yes. The message from Iran's supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, to senior commanders of Iran's armed forces this weekend is that any threat to the country must be met with an immediate response that is, quote, "without geographical limitations." Now, Iran's state media says this means that any new Israeli or U.S. attacks on Iran will inflict even greater damage than we have already seen.
派费尔：我们提到过，您在巴林。您看到破坏迹象了吗？您所在的地方明显吗？
PFEIFFER: We mentioned that you are in Bahrain. Are you seeing signs of damage? Is it evident where you are?
巴特劳伊：是的。巴林是一个岛国，位于波斯湾，国土面积很小，东边是面积大得多的邻国伊朗，同时也是美国海军第五舰队的所在地。但在这场战争的第一天，也就是2月28日，伊朗对该地区的美国军事设施发动了报复，并袭击了第五舰队的后勤中心和仓库。所以你不能在巴林拍摄被击中的这类设施的照片，但你可以从高速公路上看到第五舰队中心的损毁情况。
BATRAWY: Yeah. So Bahrain is an island nation. It's a tiny country in the Persian Gulf, with Iran as its much larger neighbor to the East, and it's home to the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet. But on the first day of this war on February 28, Iran hit back at U.S. military sites across the region, and they hit here on the 5th Fleet's logistics hub and warehouses. So you can't take photos of facilities like this here in Bahrain that have been hit, but you can see the damage to the 5th Fleet's hub right there from the highway.
我能看到被击中的雷达设备，也能看到第五舰队后勤中心所在地那些被烧焦、变黑的仓库。战争前，这个基地曾有8000名军事人员，如今已少于100人。
I could see radar equipment that had been hit, and I could see charred and blackened warehouses where the 5th Fleet logistics hub is. And there used to be 8,000 military personnel on this base before the war, and now it's down to less than a hundred.
现在，我一直在参加巴林的马纳马对话会，这是一个安全论坛。今天，巴林外交部长阿卜杜勒拉蒂夫·扎亚尼谈到了伊朗向他的国家发射的大量导弹和无人机，目标不仅是美国军事设施，还有民用基础设施。他还指出，伊朗革命卫队本月发出新的威胁，称如果战争重新爆发，将袭击穿过霍尔木兹海峡、向海湾国家输送数据的海底互联网电缆。请听。
Now, I have been at the Manama Dialogue - it's a security forum here in Bahrain. And today, Bahrain's foreign minister, Abdullatif Al Zayani, spoke of the many missiles and drones fired at his country by Iran, not just at U.S. military sites but also civilian infrastructure. And he noted that Iran's Revolutionary Guard this month has made new threats to hit undersea internet cables that carry data through the Strait of Hormuz to Gulf States if a war resumes. Have a listen.
阿卜杜勒拉蒂夫·扎亚尼：这与我们在海上看到的模式相同——一条共享的动脉正被用作施压和威胁的工具。
ABDULLATIF AL ZAYANI: This follows the same pattern we have seen at sea - a shared artery is being used as a tool of pressure and threat.
巴特劳伊：伊朗在这场战争高峰期，还袭击了位于阿拉伯联合酋长国和巴林的亚马逊数据中心。
BATRAWY: And Iran did hit Amazon data centers at the peak of this war in the United Arab Emirates in Bahrain.
派费尔：阿亚，你提到你正在参加一个安全论坛。鉴于安全问题如今是整个地区最关心的问题，你在那个活动中听到了什么样的情绪、情感基调和对话？
PFEIFFER: Aya, you mentioned that you're at a security forum. Given that security is top of mind for the whole region now, what kind of emotions, sort of emotional tenor, conversations are you hearing at that event?
巴特拉维：是的，我的意思是，海湾阿拉伯国家——它们把伊朗视为对自身安全的最大威胁，但伊朗仍是它们的邻国。因此，虽然它们欢迎美国对伊朗施压，却并不想与伊朗开战。即便是与美国和以色列关系都很紧密、在海湾对伊朗政策最强硬的阿拉伯联合酋长国，也不想再发动战争。阿联酋高级外交官安瓦尔·加尔加什今天在峰会上明确表示。
BATRAWY: Yeah. I mean, Gulf Arab states - they view Iran as a top threat to their security, but it is still their neighbor. And so while they welcome U.S. pressure on Iran, they did not and do not want war with Iran. Even the United Arab Emirates, which has strong ties with both the U.S. and Israel and has the most hawkish policy in the Gulf on Iran, does not want more war. Senior Emerati diplomat, Anwar Gargash, said it clearly today at the summit.
安瓦尔·加尔加什：我们真的必须以极大的智慧来处理这场危机，以政治手段为主要工具，并且要认识到军事解决方案只会使我们目前已经非常复杂的局面更加复杂，且根本无法快速化解危机。
ANWAR GARGASH: We really have to deal with this crisis with a lot of wisdom, with political tools being our main tools and with the understanding that military solutions will only complicate the current, very complicated scene that we have and will not actually bring any quick off-ramp to the solution.
巴特拉维：是的，正如他在那里所说，军事解决方案不会在此提供快速的出路。而且，你知道，像迪拜这样被视为投资安全港和度假胜地的地方——也都被这场战争所动摇。整个海湾地区的经济都在受苦。别忘了，沙特阿拉伯现在正努力保护其机场和石油设施，防止也门胡塞武装——伊朗支持的——的袭击。因此，海湾各国的统一信息是，对伊朗的更多攻击将是毁灭性的。
BATRAWY: Yeah. So as you heard him say there, military solutions will not bring a quick off-ramp here. And, you know, places like Dubai known as safe havens to invest in and spend your vacations in - that's all been shaken by this war. Economies across the Gulf are suffering. And don't forget Saudi Arabia is struggling now to protect its airports and oil facilities from attacks by Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. So the united message here from the Gulf is that more attacks on Iran will be devastating.
佩弗尔：战争的连锁反应正席卷整个地区，毫无疑问。这是美国国家公共广播电台（NPR）的国际记者艾娅·巴特拉维。艾娅，谢谢你。巴特拉维：谢谢，萨查。使用条款和许可页面请参阅相关信息。
PFEIFFER: And the ripple effects of the war are rippling all across the region, for sure. That is NPR's international correspondent Aya Batrawy. Aya, thank you. BATRAWY: Thank you, Sacha. terms of use permissions pages at for further information.
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