Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) 预测，德克萨斯州、阿拉斯加州和缅因州的参议院选举将在周二向民主党倾斜，这足以让该党处于夺回参议院控制权的有利位置。
Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) is forecasting Senate races in Texas, Alaska and Maine will flip toward Democrats on Tuesday, enough to put the party in a prime position of winning back the upper chamber.
DDHQ 预测，德克萨斯州民主党候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科和阿拉斯加州民主党候选人玛丽·佩尔托拉各自有 61% 的获胜几率，而缅因州民主党候选人特洛伊·杰克逊击败参议员苏珊·柯林斯（共和党-缅因州）的几率为 63%。
DDHQ forecasts that Democrats James Talarico in Texas and Mary Peltola in Alaska each have a 61 percent chance of winning their Senate races, while giving Maine Democrat Troy Jackson a 63 percent chance of beating Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine).
DDHQ 预测，民主党有望在参议院以 52 比 48 占据优势，尽管许多参议院竞选的民调仍在误差范围内，意味着它们在统计学上处于平局状态。根据 DDHQ 的预测，民主党赢得参议院控制权的总体概率为 64%，共和党为 36%。
DDHQ forecasts that Democrats are likely to notch a 52-48 edge in the upper chamber, though many of the Senate contests are still polling within the margin of error, meaning they’re statistically tied. Overall, Democrats have a 64 percent probability of winning the Senate, according to the DDHQ forecast, while Republicans have a 36 percent chance.
一年前，鉴于共和党需防守多个传统红州，民主党似乎不可能有机会认真争夺参议院控制权。但近几个月来，随着特朗普总统的支持率迅速下降，而选民仍表示生活成本过高，形势发生了逆转。伊朗战争和与加拿大的关税战推高了汽油和化肥等商品的价格，对农业州影响尤大。
A year ago, it seemed unthinkable that the Democratic Party would be able to have a serious chance at flipping the upper chamber given the number of traditionally red states Republicans were defending. But those fortunes have changed in recent months as President Trump’s approval ratings have rapidly declined while voters still say costs of living are too high. The war in Iran and the tariff war with Canada increased the price of goods like gas and fertilizer, particularly impacting agricultural states.
最近的民调显示，民主党有理由乐观，《纽约时报》和锡耶纳大学周末发布的民调显示，该党在七场竞争激烈的参议院选举中略微领先共和党。然而，只有塔拉里科和密歇根州民主党参议院候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德的民调支持率超出了完整的误差范围。双方许多人预计这些竞选仍将是势均力敌的较量。
Recent polling has suggested there’s reason for Democratic optimism, with surveys from The New York Times and Siena University released over the weekend showing the party edging out the GOP in seven competitive Senate races. However, only Talarico and Michigan Senate Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed were polling outside the full margin of error spread. Many on both sides expect those races to still be tighter matchups.
民主党周日遭遇了一些不受欢迎的消息，众议员海利·史蒂文斯（民主党-密歇根州）决定撤回对埃尔-赛义德的背书，转而支持共和党提名人迈克·罗杰斯。
Democrats did grapple with some unwelcome news on Sunday, when Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) decided to reverse her endorsement of El-Sayed and back GOP nominee Mike Rogers instead.
党内成员对斯蒂文斯感到愤怒，包括在密歇根州参议员初选中支持过她的参议院少数党领袖舒默（民主党-纽约州）在内的领导人称此举为“卑鄙的背叛”。一些民主党人和专家认为，斯蒂文斯最后时刻的举动不太可能改变竞选的整体走向，但视其为党内不受欢迎的干扰，可能会在周二白白让他们失去选票。
Members of the party were furious with Stevens, with leaders including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), who backed her in the Michigan Senate primary, calling it a “despicable betrayal.”Some Democrats and experts believe Stevens's last-minute move is unlikely to change the overall trajectory of the race but saw it as an unwelcome distraction for the party that could needlessly cost them votes on Tuesday.