“迈克·罗杰斯将成为唐纳德·特朗普危险议程的又一个橡皮图章。我们无法承担在11月再给‘让美国再次伟大’阵营一个参议院席位。”——众议员海莉·史蒂文斯，她昨天背书了共和党参议院候选人，在8月1日的一篇帖子中写道。七十八年前的今天，哈里·杜鲁门本该输掉总统大选。
“Mike Rogers will be another rubber stamp for Donald Trump’s dangerous agenda. We can’t afford to give MAGA another Senate seat in November.” — Rep. Haley Stevens, who endorsed the Republican Senate candidate yesterday, in an Aug. 1 post on Seventy-eight years ago today, Harry Truman was supposed to lose the presidency.
民调这么说。专家们也都同意。《芝加哥每日论坛报》如此确信，以至于在第二天清晨刊出了“杜威击败杜鲁门”的标题。但杜鲁门赢得了连任。我一次又一次地说过：我不信民调。即使在我竞选国会议员时，我也从不看民调数字。但昨晚发布的最终《纽约时报》/锡耶纳民调，却让人难以忽视。
The polls said so. The pundits agreed. The Chicago Daily Tribune was so certain that it printed the headline “DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN” the next morning. But Truman won re-election. I’ve said it time and again: I don’t believe polls. Even when I ran for Congress, I never looked at poll numbers. But the final New York Times/Siena polls, released last night, are hard to ignore.
民主党在7个关键参议院战场州中的6个领先，包括得克萨斯州和堪萨斯州，并且自9月以来在6个州取得了进展。
Democrats are leading in 6 of 7 battleground Senate races, including Texas and Kansas, and have gained ground in six states since September.
锡耶纳在2024年完全说中了，即使我当时难以信任其数字。他们在整个竞选期间都是对的，尤其是在最后阶段。
Siena got it dead right in 2024, even when I had trouble trusting its numbers. They were right throughout the campaign, especially at the end.
这留下了两种可能：要么锡耶纳犯了个大错——鉴于其往绩，我认为这不太可能——要么我们正处于选民态度的一次断裂之中。
That leaves two possibilities: Either Siena has gotten something terribly wrong — which I think is unlikely, given its track record — or we’re in the middle of a break in the electorate.
我们以前见过这种情况。1980年，吉米·卡特和罗纳德·里根在周五打成平手。到了周二，里根以共和党大获全胜的态势获胜。
We’ve seen it before. In 1980, Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan were tied on Friday. On Tuesday, Reagan won in a massive Republican landslide.
1994年，我在周五落后2个百分点。到了周二，我以62%对38%获胜。这种情况发生在全美各地的共和党人身上。
In 1994, I was down 2 points on Friday. On Tuesday, I won, 62% to 38%. And that happened to Republicans all across America.
类似的断裂可能正在进行中，犹豫不决的选民正向在野党靠拢，正如他们在中期选举中经常做的那样。我们明天就会知道结果。
A similar break may be underway right now, with undecided voters moving toward the party out of power, as they so often do in off-year elections. We’ll find out tomorrow.
1983年11月2日，在科雷塔·斯科特·金的见证下，总统罗纳德·里根设立了一个联邦假日，以纪念她的丈夫、马丁·路德·金博士牧师。这一举措结束了长达15年的运动，该运动包括向国会递交了有600万个签名的请愿书，以及史蒂夫·汪达1980年的歌曲《生日快乐》，这首歌向金致敬：“我们知道，所有人团结的关键在于你很久以前拥有的那个梦想。”
On Nov. 2, 1983, with Coretta Scott King looking on, President Ronald Reagan established a federal holiday honoring her husband, the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. Theg capped a 15-year campaign that included a petition to Congress bearing 6 million names and Stevie Wonder’s 1980 song “Happy Birthday,” with its tribute to King: “We know the key to unity of all people is in the dream that you had so long ago.”
吉姆·万德海伊谈密歇根州参议院竞选：“显然，黑莉·斯蒂文斯和阿卜杜勒·埃尔赛德互相仇恨。他们仇恨对方已有很长时间。但我就是不认为人们会那样投票。大多数人关心的是，东西比过去更贵了，健康保险费继续上涨，以及他们的孩子的生活是否会比他们更差。对于独立选民来说，这是两害相权取其轻。他们不喜欢任何人——只是目前他们仇恨共和党人多于仇恨民主党人。”
Jim VandeHei on Michigan’s Senate race“Obviously, Haley Stevens and Abdul El-Sayed hate each other. They’ve hated each other for a long time. But I just don’t think people vote that way. Most people care about the fact that things cost more than they used to, health premiums continuing to go up, and whether their kids’ lives will be worse than theirs. For independents, it’s the lesser of two evils. They don’t like anybody — they just happen to hate Republicans more than Democrats right now.”
大卫·德鲁克谈罗杰·马歇尔的“流氓视频”：“当一个州由单一政党控制，任何技能的政客都能凭借党派性混过去时，就会发生这样的事。一旦在这种选举中受到考验，就会出岔子。我认为事情就这么简单。”
David Drucker on Roger Marshall’s rogue video“This is what happens when you have single-party control of a state, and any politician of any skill set has been able to skate by because of partisanship. The moment you’re tested in an election like this, you get tripped up. And I think it’s just as simple as that.”
约翰·海尔曼谈共和党在意想不到的地方花钱：“如果你不想相信民调，那就跟着钱走。共和党人在过去几周内在南卡罗来纳州花费了数千万美元，正在密西西比州投入数百万美元，现在总统要去路易斯安那州了。一切都有可能，我认为，选举之夜会出现一些巨大的惊喜。”
John Heilemann on GOP spending in unexpected places“If you don’t want to believe the polls, follow the money. Republicans have spent tens of millions of dollars in South Carolina in just the last few weeks, are investing millions in Mississippi, and now the president is going to Louisiana. Everything’s in play, and there are going to be, I think, some huge surprises on election night.”