Kalshi平台上的交易员认为民主党赢得参议院控制权的几率为74%。
Traders on Kalshi see a 74% chance of Democrats winning the Senate.
更高的几率出现在《纽约时报》和锡耶纳大学的一项民调发现民主党在七个关键战场州领先之后。
The higher odds come after a New York Times and Siena University poll found Democrats are leading in seven battleground states.
Kalshi上民主党的声势正在增强，交易员周一认为该党赢得参议院控制权的几率为74%——这是自该市场开设以来民主党在该平台上获得的最高几率。
Momentum for Democrats is building on Kalshi, with traders on Monday seeing a 74% chance of the party winning control of the Senate — the highest odds seen for the party on the platform since the market first opened.
更高的几率出现在《纽约时报》和锡耶纳大学的一项民调发现民主党在多个关键战场州领先之后，这增强了民主党赢得参议院多数席位的可能路径。该合约询问“谁将控制参议院？”，并将在周二投票后由国会图书馆进行验证。
The higher odds come after a New York Times and Siena University poll found Democrats are leading in several battleground states, strengthening Democrats' path to a possible Senate majority. The contract asks, "Who will control the Senate?", and will be verified by the Library of Congress after Tuesday's vote.
自2024年市场开设以来，共和党一直主导着2026年参议院控制权市场。在美以于2月28日首次对伊朗发动空袭后不久，两党几率的差距一度缩小，尽管共和党控制参议院的几率在7月一度升至60%，随后在9月中旬扭转。
Since the market first opened in 2024, Republicans dominated the market for Senate control in 2026. The gap between the parties' odds narrowed shortly after the U.S. and Israel first launched strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, though the chances for Republican control jumped up to 60% in July before reversing in mid-September.
在过去24小时里，单独参议院竞选的市场也出现了大幅向有利于民主党候选人的方向变动。Kalshi上的交易员现在认为民主党赢得得克萨斯州参议院竞选的几率为74%，高于24小时前的68.4%。在Polymarket上，爱荷华州参议院市场支持民主党的几率从42%跃升至50%。
Markets on separate Senate races have also seen major movement in favor of Democratic candidates in the last 24 hours. Traders on Kalshi now see a 74% chance of Democrats winning the Texas Senate race, up from 68.4%, over the past 24 hours. The Iowa Senate market jumped to 50% from 42% on Polymarket in favor of Democrats.
在堪萨斯州——该州自1932年以来未曾选出过民主党联邦参议员——民主党候选人亚当·汉密尔顿战胜共和党人罗杰·马歇尔的几率已升至63%，高于之前的52%。
In Kansas, which has not elected a Democratic U.S. senator since 1932, odds of Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton winning over Republican Roger Marshall are up to 63% from 52%.
赔率和博彩平台不使用传统政治民调所采用的方法，因此不能替代政治民调。
Odds and gambling platforms do not use methodologies used by traditional political polling, and therefore are not substitutes for political polls.