乌克兰经济正陷入困境，因为俄罗斯的空战行动瞄准了出口所需的工业、物流网络和港口。
Ukraine's economy is struggling as Russia's air war targets industries, logistics networks and ports needed for exports.
萨米娅·库拉布 卡缅斯克，乌克兰 —— 熔炉冷却，厂房空无一人，扭曲的金属散落在卡梅特钢铁厂（Kamet Steel）的厂区各处，这个曾帮助支撑乌克兰经济的庞大工业综合体在俄军袭击后关闭。全国各地，作为关键出口商品的粮食堆积在田间和筒仓里，农民们努力寻找免受空袭威胁的运输路线，并等待价格上涨。
SAMYA KULLAB KAMIANSKE, Ukraine — The furnaces are cold, the factory floor deserted, and twisted metal litters the grounds of Kamet Steel, a vast industrial complex that once helped power Ukraine’s economy but closed after a Russian attack Across the country, grain — a key export — piles up in fields and silos as farmers struggle to find routes safe from airstrikes and wait for prices to rise.
俄罗斯强化的空中战役正在慢慢扼杀乌克兰经济，打击目标包括工业和能源设施，以及维持经济运转的物流网络、铁路和出口路线。近乎每天的弹道导弹和喷气式无人机袭击扰乱了生产，并推高了运输成本。
Russia’s intensified air campaign is slowly strangling Ukraine’s economy, targeting industrial and energy plants and the logistics networks, railways and export routes that keep it afloat. The near-daily strikes with ballistic missiles and jet-powered drones disrupt production and drive up transport costs.
结果，随着空战切断了钢铁、农业和其他关键来源的收入，乌克兰政府面临日益严重的资金短缺。这种破坏波及相互关联的各个领域，正值基辅面临未来美国援助的不确定性之际。乌克兰中央银行上周预测，由于袭击和全球能源价格飙升，2026年经济将收缩0.4%，此前曾预测增长1.8%。行长安德里·皮什内表示，央行还将通胀预测从7月的10%上调至12.5%。
As a result, Ukraine’s government faces a deepening cash crunch as the air war chokes its revenue from steel, agriculture and other key sources. The damage ripples across interconnected sectors just as Kyiv faces uncertainty over future U.S. support Ukraine’s central bank last week forecast a 0.4% economic contraction in 2026, reversing its previous projection of 1.8% growth, due to the attacks and a surge in global energy prices. Gov. Andriy Pyshnyy said the bank had also raised its inflation forecast to 12.5%, from 10% in July.
斯德哥尔摩转型经济研究所所长托比约恩·贝克尔指出，乌克兰将国内生产总值的约40%用于国防开支——远超其单独承担的能力。仅靠增税只能带来所需资金的一小部分。
Ukraine spends some 40% of its gross domestic product on defense — far beyond what it can cover alone, notes Torbjörn Becker, director of the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics. Raising taxes only would bring in a fraction of what is needed.
乌克兰钢铁工业——经济支柱——陷入停摆 导弹袭击已导致乌克兰矿业和金属巨头梅钢集团（Metinvest Group）的钢铁生产全面停摆。
Ukraine’s steel industry, a pillar of the economy, grinds to a halt Missile strikes have halted steel production across Metinvest Group, the country’s mining and metals giant.
位于工业城市卡缅斯克的卡梅特钢铁厂，2025年产量占乌克兰钢铁总产量的四分之一以上。该综合体雇佣数千名工人，生产钢材和生铁供国内建筑业使用。它还向梅钢在保加利亚的工厂供应半成品钢材，用于当地及欧洲其他市场。
Kamet Steel, in the industrial city of Kamianske, accounted for more than a quarter of Ukraine’s steel output in 2025. The complex employed thousands producing steel and pig iron for domestic construction. It also supplied semi-finished steel to Metinvest’s facility in Bulgaria for the market there and elsewhere in Europe.
但9月5日，五枚弹道导弹袭击了该厂区。其关闭重创乌克兰工业经济，波及建筑、采矿、工程、能源和物流等行业。
But five ballistic missiles struck the site on Sept. 5. Its closure has hurt Ukraine’s industrial economy, affecting construction, mining, engineering, energy and logistics.
乌克兰国家铁路公司“乌克兰铁路”严重依赖钢材运输及其他货运收入。卡梅特钢铁厂首席执行官奥列克桑德尔·特列季亚科夫表示，依赖该厂的企业可能面临失业和破产。他还说，欧盟贸易限制可能通过缩小乌克兰钢材出口市场而阻碍复苏。
Ukrzaliznytsia, the national railway operator, relies heavily on steel transport and other freight revenue. Businesses that rely on the plant could lose jobs and face bankruptcy, said Oleksandr Tretyakov, Kamet Steel’s CEO. European Union trade restrictions could hinder recovery by narrowing the market for Ukrainian steel exports, he said.
“这是二战以来最糟糕的局势，”特列季亚科夫说，并指出钢铁业曾占乌克兰GDP的约6%。
“This is the worst situation since the Second World War,” Tretyakov said, noting that steel once accounted for about 6% of Ukraine’s GDP.
“确实如此，”他说，“而现在，是零。” 粮食因出口瓶颈而滞留 农业占乌克兰外汇收入的高达60%，对战时经济至关重要。
“It did,” he said. “Right now, it’s zero.”Grain is trapped behind export bottlenecks Agriculture accounts for up to 60% of Ukraine’s foreign currency earnings, making it critical to the wartime economy.
但俄罗斯对黑海航运的袭击大幅减少了乌克兰深水港口的吞吐量，正值农民需要现金为下一播种季做准备之际。
But Russian attacks on Black Sea shipping have sharply reduced traffic through Ukraine’s deep-water ports just as farmers need cash to prepare for the next planting season.
据海事数据和分析公司劳氏航运情报显示，随着港口、船只和物流基础设施遭袭，乌克兰黑海贸易已崩溃。8月黑海港口仅有21艘船抵达，较去年同期下降约90%。
Ukraine’s Black Sea trade has collapsed with attacks on ports, vessels and logistics infrastructure, according to maritime data and analytics company Lloyd’s List Intelligence. There were only 21 ship arrivals at Black Sea ports in August, down about 90% from a year earlier.
飙升的保险费和俄罗斯袭击的持续威胁令船东望而却步。今年已有数十名海员在袭击中丧生。
Soaring insurance premiums and the constant threat of Russian strikes deter shipowners. Dozens of sailors have been killed in attacks this year.
“我们所有的发展成果、所有取得的创新都将因这一局势而化为乌有，我们稍后将不得不从零开始，”乌克兰主要农产品出口商尼布隆公司贸易总监弗拉基米尔·斯卡温斯基说。
“All our developments and all the innovations we achieved will be crossed out by this situation and we will need to start from zero later,” said Volodymyr Scavinskyi, trade director at Nibulon, one of Ukraine’s leading agricultural exporters.
尽管面临俄罗斯轰炸的威胁，从乌克兰多瑙河上吞吐能力较低的港口驶往黑海的船只通行量激增。但成本高昂。多瑙河三角洲的苏利纳航道水深太浅，无法容纳最大型船只，数十艘船只常需等待数天才能进出河口。
Ship traffic from Ukraine’s lower-capacity ports on the Danube River to the Black Sea has surged, even under the threat of Russian bombardment. But it is costly. The Danube delta’s Sulina Channel is too shallow for the largest vessels, and dozens of ships often wait days to enter or leave the river.
因干旱导致多瑙河水位降至历史低位，也限制了这一航线的运力。斯卡温斯基说，曾能装载1500吨货物的驳船如今只能装载800至900吨，运送相同体积货物所需驳船数量几乎翻倍，推高了成本。他说，今年早些时候，从乌克兰中部将每吨玉米运往西班牙的费用高达50美元，现在可能达到150美元。
Record low Danube water levels due to drought also constrain the route. Barges that once carried 1,500 tons are loading only 800 to 900 tons, Scavinskyi said. Nearly twice as many barges are needed to move the same volume, raising costs. Transporting each ton of corn from central Ukraine to Spain cost up to $50 earlier this year. Now, it can reach $150, he said.
“风险依然存在，而且你无法获得任何保证，无法确保你的航程会成功，”斯卡温斯基说。
“It’s still risky and you don’t have any guarantees that your voyage will be successful,” Scavinskyi said.
农民夹在盈亏平衡与亏损之间 对于大型农业控股公司哈维斯特的商业总监奥列娜·谢列斯特而言，眼下的挑战是寻找买家。
Farmers caught between breaking even and losses For Olena Shelest, commercial director at HarvEast, a major agricultural holding, the immediate challenge is finding buyers.
哈维斯特将小麦储存在巨大的筒仓袋中，等待市场价格企稳。但粮食必须在年底前售出，以回笼资金用于明年的播种。公司面临资金枯竭、无力播种下一季作物的风险，这会将当下的出口瓶颈转化为明年的生产危机。
HarvEast is holding wheat in enormous silo bags, waiting for market prices to stabilize. But the grain must be sold by year’s end to free up cash for next year’s planting. The company risks running out of money to sow the next crop, turning today’s export bottleneck into next year’s production crisis.
谢列斯特说，玉米价格大幅下跌，从去年平均每吨210至230美元降至130美元左右，进一步挤压了农民的利润空间。
Corn prices have fallen sharply, from an average of $210 to $230 per ton last year to around $130, further squeezing farmers, Shelest said.
谢列斯特说，哈维斯特约60%的销售过去通过黑海港口进行。多瑙河上的雷尼和伊兹梅尔港口只能处理全国总出口量的约15%至20%。经由波兰及欧洲其他国家的陆路运输虽提供了替代方案，但运输成本更高。压力迫使农民削减种子和化肥开支，冒着未来产量下降的风险。
About 60% of HarvEast’s sales used to go through Black Sea ports. The Danube ports of Reni and Izmail can handle only about 15% to 20% of overall national export volumes, Shelest said. Land routes through Poland and elsewhere in Europe offer alternatives but have higher transport costs. The pressure is forcing farmers to cut spending on seeds and fertilizer, risking future yields.
乌克兰面临俄罗斯入侵以来最严重的资金紧张 议会预算委员会主席罗克索拉娜·皮德拉萨表示，乌克兰正面临自2022年俄罗斯入侵以来最严重的资金紧张。税收收入下降导致国库难以支付计划开支，尽管有国际资金承诺。
Ukraine faces worst cash squeeze since Russia’s invasion Roksolana Pidlasa, head of the parliament’s budget committee, said Ukraine is facing its worst cash squeeze since Russia’s 2022 invasion. Falling tax revenues have left the treasury struggling to cover planned spending despite international funding commitments.
乌克兰2026年面临略低于250亿美元的资金缺口，数十项与国际承诺挂钩的法案需要在年底前获得议会批准。预计2027年缺口将达到约326亿美元，外加约450亿美元的实物军事援助。
Ukraine faces a gap of just under $25 billion in funding for 2026, with dozens of bills tied to international commitments requiring parliamentary approval by the end of the year. In 2027, the gap is expected to reach about $32.6 billion, plus around $45 billion for in-kind military support.
美国预算支持的缺失加剧了压力。根据美国政府问责局的数据，在乔·拜登总统任内（2022年至2024年），华盛顿提供了500亿美元的纯预算支持，帮助支付教师和医生的工资及养老金。
The loss of U.S. budget support has compounded the pressure. Washington provided $50 billion in purely budget support under President Joe Biden between 2022 and 2024, helping fund teachers and doctors’ salaries and pensions, according to the U.S. Government Accountability Office.
自唐纳德·特朗普总统重返白宫以来，尚未授权向乌克兰提供重大援助。根据外交关系协会的说法，拜登政府拨款的部分援助仍在输送管道中，但特朗普政府已暂时暂停了一些交付。
Since President Donald Trump returned to office, there has been no authorization of significant aid to Ukraine. Some aid appropriated under the Biden Administration is still in the pipeline, though the Trump administration has temporarily paused some deliveries, according to the Council on Foreign Relations.
欧洲已成为乌克兰最大的整体支持来源，自战争爆发以来提供了1370亿欧元（1530亿美元）的财政、人道主义和军事援助，而美国提供了1150亿欧元（1290亿美元），据基尔世界经济研究所统计。
Europe has become Ukraine’s largest source of overall support, providing 137 billion euros ($153 billion) in financial, humanitarian and military aid since the start of the war, compared with 115 billion euros ($129 billion) from the U.S., according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
国防、公共部门工资、养老金和社会救助享有优先权。政府已推迟建设、重建和部分冬季备战项目。
Defense, public sector salaries, pensions and social assistance take priority. The government has postponed construction, reconstruction and some winter preparation projects.
皮德拉萨说：“如果乌克兰明年找不到弥补赤字的办法，意味着我们将无法支付教师和医生的工资，也无法维持医院运转。”
If Ukraine doesn’t find a way to cover the deficit next year, “it will mean that we will not be able to pay teachers and doctors’ salaries and maintain hospitals,” Pidlasa said.