Polymarket 和 Kalshi 因汇聚“群众的智慧”而声名鹊起。但在发生重大失误后，一些人开始怀疑它们的预测是否只是“愚蠢的人运气好”。
Polymarket and Kalshi have risen for collecting the ‘wisdom of crowds’. But after high-profile blunders, some wonder if their predictions were just ‘stupid people getting lucky’ Just as voting was due to end in Brazil’s presidential runoff on 25 October, a supreme court justice ordered polling stations to stay open for another two hours, to give voters stranded by flash floods and bus shortages more time to cast their ballots.
就在巴西总统决选投票于 10 月 25 日即将结束时，一位最高法院大法官下令投票站再开放两小时，以便让因山洪暴发和公交车短缺而被困的选民有更多时间投票。这为本已紧张的选举增添了更多戏剧性。投票前一晚的最终民调显示，弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗仅以约 51% 对 49% 的微弱优势领先——处于误差范围内。这是一场统计学意义上的平局。
It added more drama to an already tense election. The final polls the night before showed Flávio Bolsonaro only marginally ahead, by about 51% to 49% – within the margin of error. A statistical tie.
预测市场却讲述了一个不同的故事。Polymarket 在选举日将博尔索纳罗获胜的定价维持在约 80%，这一水平已持续了三周。在投票前夕，该概率一度触及 84%。即使投票结束，市场仍给现任总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦大约五分之一的获胜机会。几小时后，卢拉以 51.8% 对 48.2% 获胜。
Prediction markets told a different story. Polymarket priced a Bolsonaro victory at about 80% on election day, where it had hovered for three weeks. On the eve of the vote it touched 84%. Even as polls closed, the market gave the incumbent, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, roughly a one-in-five chance. A few hours later, Lula had won, by 51.8% to 48.2%.