民间社会团体此前担心，今年席卷全美的大规模反移民浪潮会对拉丁裔社区的选民投票率产生寒蝉效应。但实际情况恰恰相反。
Civil society groups have feared that the mass anti-immigration surges across the US this year would have a chilling effect on voter turnout in Latino communities. In reality, they have had the opposite result.
“在地方层面，我们并没有看到有人因为担心移民及海关执法局（ICE）会出现在投票站而不敢去投票，”得克萨斯州南部鼓励投票组织LUPE Votes的拉票组织者迈克尔·米雷莱斯对《连线》杂志说。“眼下人们被反ICE的情绪所驱动，这并没有阻止他们前往投票站。”米雷莱斯是《连线》近几周采访的十多位活动人士、志愿者和组织者之一，受访话题是特朗普的强硬移民政策对某些社区造成的影响——这些社区曾在2024年以出人意料的高投票率支持了这位总统。
”We have not seen here at the local level people worried to show up to vote because they think ICE is going to be there,” Michael Mireles, a canvassing organizer with LUPE Votes, a get-out-the-vote group in southern Texas, tells WIRED. “People are driven right now by their anti-ICE sentiment, and it's not stopping them from going to the polls.”Mireles is one of a dozen activists, volunteers, and organizers WIRED spoke to in recent weeks about the impact Trump’s hard-line immigration policies were having on communities that turned out in surprising numbers for the president in 2024.
特朗普的移民政策不成比例地针对拉丁裔社区，许多守法的美国公民也被卷入ICE的抓捕行动。数周以来，国土安全部和特朗普政府一直声称，他们没有计划在选举日向投票站部署ICE探员，但总统唐纳德·特朗普以及国土安全部长马克韦恩·马林、司法部长托德·布兰奇等政府官员已多次暗示会进行某种形式的部署。
Trump’s immigration policies have disproportionately targeted Latino neighborhoods, and many law-abiding US citizens have been caught up in the ICE dragnet. For weeks now, the Department of Homeland Security and the Trump administration have claimed that they have no plans to deploy ICE agents to polling locations on election day, but President Donald Trump and administration officials like DHS secretary Markwayne Mullin and attorney general Todd Blanche have repeatedly hinted at some sort of deployment.
尽管人们确实仍对选举日可能发生的情况感到担忧，但拉丁裔社区传递出的压倒性信息是：他们并未被吓倒，而是要以创纪录的人数前往投票，以此 defiance 政府。
While there is certainly still fear about what may happen on Election Day, the overwhelming message coming from the Latino community is that rather than being cowed, they are defying the administration to turn up in record numbers.
这些经历得到了数据的支持。提前投票数据显示，人们投票的比例远高于近几次选举。截至周一下午，已有超过5700万人提前投票，比2022年中期选举的提前投票总人数多出1000万。根据佛罗里达大学选举实验室的数据，在许多州，拉丁裔社区所占的投票份额高于往年。
These experiences are backed up by data. Early voting figures indicate people are casting their ballots at a much higher rate than in recent elections. By Monday afternoon, more than 57million people had voted early, 10 million more than the total early voting figure in the 2022 midterms. In many states, Latino communities are accounting for a larger share than in previous years, according to data from the University of Florida’s Election Lab.
在得克萨斯州，已有超过40万在2024年没有投票的人在今年投出了选票。民主党策略师、数据公司TargetSmart顾问汤姆·博尼尔上周在接受采访时透露，这一数字中50%是拉丁裔选民。
In Texas, there have already been over 400,000 people who didn’t vote in 2024 who have cast their ballot in 2026. Of that figure, 50 percent are Latino voters, Tom Bonier, a Democrat strategist and adviser to data company TargetSmart, revealed in an interview last week.
根据TargetSmart的数据，得州正在发生的情况正在全美各地重演。截至10月27日，全国已有380万西班牙裔和拉丁裔选民投出了选票，较2022年同期投票的235万西班牙裔和拉丁裔选民大幅增加。
And what’s happening in Texas is being replicated across the country, according to data from TargetSmart. By October 27, 3.8 million Hispanic and Latino voters had cast a ballot nationwide, a massive increase from the 2.35 million Hispanic and Latino voters who had voted by the same date in 2022.
“在得州拉丁裔社区集中的地方，投票率甚至高于全州惊人的整体速度，”负责佛罗里达大学选举实验室的迈克尔·麦克唐纳上周在一篇分析中写道。“得州拉丁裔的投票参与度高于以往历次选举，正如我们在佛罗里达州、佐治亚州和北卡罗来纳州所看到的那样。”这一分析得到了全美最大的拉丁裔民权组织——拉丁裔美国公民联盟与《连线》杂志分享的数据的支持。
“Where large Hispanic communities exist in Texas, there is elevated turnout even above the blistering statewide pace,” Michael McDonald, who runs the University of Florida Election Lab, wrote in an analysis last week. “Texas Hispanics are voting at higher levels than in past elections, as we can see in Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina.”This analysis was backed up by data shared with WIRED by the League of United Latin American Citizens, the largest Latino civil rights group in the country.
该联盟的数据显示，在涵盖里奥格兰德河谷部分地区的得州第15国会选区，超过1.2万名提前投票的人在上次选举中没有投票。在一个现任共和党女众议员莫妮卡·德拉克鲁兹2022年仅以约1.2万票优势获胜的选区，这些选票可能产生重大影响。
The league’s data shows that in Texas’ 15th congressional district, which includes a part of the Rio Grande Valley, over 12,000 people who have voted early did not vote in the previous elections. Those votes could have a significant impact in a district where incumbent Republican congresswoman Monica De La Cruz won in 2022 by around 12,000 votes.
全国数十个组织和个人数月来不知疲倦地努力，说服这些社区民众，他们需要站出来让自己的声音被听到，而最好的方式就是投票。
Dozens of organizations and individuals across the country have worked tirelessly for months to convince these communities that they need to stand up and have their voice heard, and the best way to do that is to vote.
“我们并没有试图安抚民众，也没有让大家觉得情况不会那么糟，”614 ICE观察组织和俄亥俄好邻居网络的组织者莉莉安娜·里维拉·拜曼告诉《连线》。“我们也不想夸大其词。我们说的是正在发生的现实。这些是我们亲眼所见的事例。你们告诉我们情况真的很糟，你们不希望这种情况继续下去，所以你们有一个选择：要么出来投票，确保自己的声音算数，要么待在家里，继续忍受接下来两三年甚至更久的状况。我确实认为这激励了很多人。”那些曾经顶住ICE大规模突击行动的公民的经历，是一个巨大的因素。
“We didn't try to pacify people or make it seem like it wasn't going to be that bad,” Liliana Rivera Baiman, an organizer with 614 ICE Watch and Ohio Good Neighbor Network tells WIRED. “We didn't want to exaggerate either. We said this is the reality of what's been happening. These are examples of what we've seen. You've told us that it's really bad and that you don't want this to continue, so you have a choice. You're either going to show up and vote and make sure that your voice is counted, or you're going to stay home and continue to deal with this for the next two or three years, possibly longer. I really think that motivated a lot of people.”The experiences of citizens who have faced down ICE’s massive surges have played a huge factor.
“这些地方的人们真正面对过一些最严重的 ICE 暴力，他们感觉自己明白准备工作至关重要，” 反威权主义和政治极端主义组织“核心州联盟”执行董事 Jill Garvey 告诉《连线》。“他们明白这有多创伤，多混乱。我认为他们希望为任何可能出现的情形做到尽可能充分的准备。”
“Folks in these places that have really come face-to-face with some of the worst of the ICE violence are feeling like they understand that preparation is key,” Jill Garvey, executive director of States at the Core, a group that combats authoritarianism and political extremism, tells WIRED. “They understand how traumatizing this is, how chaotic it is. I think they want to be as prepared as possible for any scenario.”
但 Garvey 表示，直面 ICE 已经意味着这些社区 “坦率地说，不那么害怕了。他们已经面对过这种情况，这很可怕，但他们也知道这是可能发生的，而且事态升级可能非常、非常迅速。”
But Garvey says that facing down ICE already means these communities are “frankly, a little less scared. They have faced this already, and it's scary, but they also know that it's possible, and that the escalation can happen very, very quickly.”
“亚利桑那团结变革” 是一个以拉美裔工薪阶层选民为目标、开展动员投票工作的组织。发言人 César Fierros 告诉《连线》，在最近的一周里，志愿者敲开了数千扇门。有 1,000 人告诉该组织，他们已经提前投票或寄回了选票。“这是一个非常好的迹象；这是我们以前从未见过的情况，” Fierros 说。“人们在说：‘是的，外面存在威胁，迫在眉睫，但我们仍然会出来投票。’”
Living United for Change in Arizona is a group that targets working-class Latino voters with its get-out-the-vote efforts. In one recent week, volunteers knocked on thousands of doors, César Fierros, a spokesperson for the group tells WIRED. 1,000 people told the group they voted early or mailed their ballots back. “That's a really good sign; that's something that we have really never seen before,” Fierros says. “People are saying ‘Yes, there are threats out there, looming, but we're still going to show up regardless.”
在佐治亚州迪卡尔布县，反特朗普组织 “拯救美国运动” 的志愿者本月初在早期投票地点听到了来自前来投票的人们的类似表态。
In DeKalb County in Georgia, volunteers from the Save America Movement, an anti-Trump group, heard similar messages from people streaming into early polling locations earlier this month.
“我们的‘投票安全’团队成员所到之处都能听到这种说法，”拯救美国运动联合创始人兼执行主任玛丽·科科伦对《连线》杂志表示。“从投票站开门到关门，选民源源不断地前来。一个接一个的人告诉我们的团队，今年没有什么能阻止他们投票。人们知道这届政府在试图做什么，他们拒绝被吓退、放弃属于自己的民主。”
“We’re hearing it everywhere our Vote Safe team members are,” Mary Corcoran, cofounder and executive director of the Save America Movement, tells WIRED. “Voters came through in a steady stream from the moment the polls opened until they closed. Person after person told our team that nothing was going to keep them from voting this year. People know what this administration is trying to do, and they are refusing to be scared out of their own democracy.”
在内华达州，正在竞选连任、对手是否认选举结果的吉姆·马钱特的州务卿西斯科·阿吉拉尔认为，要说服犹豫不决的选民出来投票，民选领导人需要“说点实在话”。
In Nevada, secretary of state Cisco Aguilar, who is running for reelection against election denier Jim Marchant, believes that in order to convince reticent voters to show up, elected leaders need to “get real.”
“我参加了一场拉丁裔社区活动，（我说）我们真他妈得去投票，告诉那些混蛋滚远点，”阿吉拉尔对《连线》杂志说。“当你跟他们把这话说透，让他们知道你们愿意站出来为他们抗争，他们才会愿意考虑出来投票。”
“I did a Latino community event [and said] we have to actually fucking vote to tell these motherfuckers to fuck off,” Aguilar tells WIRED. “And when you get real with them about that, and they know that you're willing to stand up and fight for them, then they are willing to consider showing up to vote.”
投票权组织“共同事业”负责各州事务的副总裁苏珊娜·阿尔梅达也有同感。她说，重要的是“拥抱这种 defiance（反抗精神）”，并告诉选民“如果投票没有力量，反对派就不会把投票搞得这么难”。“威胁是真实的，但喜悦也是真实的，参与民主确实会带来真正的喜悦，”阿尔梅达说。
This is a sentiment echoed by Suzanne Almeida, vice president of states with voting rights group Common Cause, who says it’s important to “lean into that defiance” and tell voters “that the opposition wouldn't be making it so difficult if there wasn't power in voting.”“The threats are real, but so is the joy, and there is a real joy that comes in participating in democracy,” Almeida says.