Since July, the sign at the streetside memorial to Lorenzo Salgado Araujo in Houston, where the beloved father of three was fatally shot by an immigration officer, has read, “Somos Lorenzo.”Today, the sign has evolved from a remembrance to a political statement.

Hundreds of stickers with the words “I voted” now populate the white expanse. In this heavily Hispanic Houston neighborhood, the memorial to a man with no criminal record who suffered a violent death, rocking the community, serves as a visual representation of what’s happening in the voting booth.

With three days until Election Day, Texas early voting numbers show a staggering surge of Hispanic voters in the state, according to an analysis by the NBC News Decision Desk.

To date, nearly 1.8 million Hispanic voters have cast ballots in the Lone Star State.

Compared to the same time in the 2022 election cycle, that represents an increase of more than 881,000 additional Hispanic voters statewide, or an 87.2% bump.

Texas does not include demographic data as part of its early voting reports. To estimate Hispanic voter participation in the midterm elections so far, TargetSmart, a voter data firm, uses a statistical model.

Of the 1.8 million and counting Hispanic voters in Texas this year, nearly 345,000 are under 30 years of age.

That’s an increase of about 120% compared to the same point in 2022. Then, 156,657 Hispanic voters under age 30 had cast ballots with three days left in the election.

Perhaps most notable to political campaigns, 265,447 Hispanic early voters in Texas — or 14% of all Texas Hispanic early voters — did not vote in either the 2024 presidential race or in the 2022 midterms, according to NBC News’ analysis.

These infrequent voters are typically the most desirable early voters for campaigns, because it means they are already banking ballots from supporters who can be difficult to find and motivate on Election Day.

NBC News’ early vote data does not indicate who voters are supporting, and local strategists warn to await full turnout before drawing conclusions. But the numbers we know right now are dramatic.

“It’s not going to be just a ripple. It’s going to be a sea change,” said Vanessa Cardenas, executive director of America’s Voice, a national immigrant advocacy group.

“They’re feeling that they have a target on their back because of how they look and the language they speak. The NBC News numbers reveal the potential awakening of a giant at the polls at a moment when America is at a crossroads on immigration enforcement. It isn’t limited to Texas. Across the country, Latino voters have come out in droves to vote early. According to NBC News numbers, it reflects a 100% increase in turnout as of Thursday compared to the same period in the 2022 midterms. More than 4.9 million Latinos had already voted in the 2026 midterms with five days left of voting, compared to 2.4 million early votes cast in 2022 by the same point. It is especially momentous because Hispanic voters have historically not shown up to vote in numbers comparable to their eligible population. “The reality is that there’s so much anger and rejection of what Trump is doing,” Cardenas said. “Latino voters are going to be a big part of the story of what happens next Tuesday.” In Texas, the phenomenon is playing out at a time when Democrats have fielded their biggest threat in years to flip a Republican Senate seat: James Talarico. He is facing off against Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is backed by more than $150 million in money from Elon Musk. Polling has shown Hispanic voters overwhelmingly rejecting Trump’s mass deportation policies as more and more violent confrontations with ICE have occurred across the country, including in Texas. Early turnout among Hispanic voters is up across the state, not just in select regions. Tania Chavez Camacho with the group LUPE, who has for decades done community work in the Rio Grande Valley in South Texas, is doing election protection work at the polls. She said turnout is up in the Rio Grande Valley, with Hidalgo County seeing some of the biggest crowds. “In a handful of locations we’ve seen lines after 7 p.m.” Chavez said. “That for us was a first.” The Rio Grande Valley in South Texas swung strongly for Trump in 2024. Since then, surveys have shown a sharp reversal in voter sentiment. In 2024, 55% of Texas Latinos supported Trump, according to exit polls, but recent data, including a September NBC5 Dallas/Telemundo Station Group poll, shows Talarico with at least 54% of Latino support — and significantly more than that in some surveys. “Turnout is clearly robust, and it is outpacing other midterm elections, and it is nearing presidential level,” said Manny Garcia, a longtime Texas Democratic strategist. “That’s what just bodes really well for what we’re going to see on Election Day.” In Texas, Trump’s aggressive immigration policies have been well publicized. Salgado Araujo’s shooting death captured headlines for weeks and prompted at least one wide-scale protest. Notably, government officials admitted Salgado Araujo was not an intended target for arrest. Witness statements contradicted ICE officials who said Salgado Araujo was using his van as a weapon and surveillance footage has shown unmarked SUVs following and surrounding his work van. And at one point, officials released a search warrant that publicly stated they wanted to search his van for suspected meth. The substance turned out to be a homemade electrolyte mixture he used with water to help keep up his energy while working construction in blazing hot Houston summer days. Activists say it underscored government abuse on the population of hard-working immigrants. A separate incident in Houston further inflamed the immigrant community. An ICE officer was captured on video veering into an immigrant who was walking away from the vehicle. That officer was just indicted. The handling of Salgado’s shooting death, meanwhile, is under a grand jury investigation. “We’re seeing the same increase in Hispanic participation, and I think it’s significant. But I’d caution against assuming that every additional Hispanic voter is a Democratic vote, or that the impact is identical across the ticket,” Chris Wilson, CEO for EyesOver and Stratus, a Republican polling firm. Wilson’s clients include Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick. “Our tracking shows meaningful differences across the ticket, with Hispanic voters performing better for Abbott than Paxton. Republicans also have a substantial pool of voters still expected on Election Day,” he said. “The biggest unknown is those new Hispanic voters without recent voting histories,” Wilson said. “They’re harder to model, and their preferences could matter as much as their turnout.” Tom Bonier, CEO of TargetSmart, said he was blown away by the numbers in Texas, particularly the number of Hispanic voters who hadn’t participated in recent elections. Bonier, a Democratic strategist, said according to his numbers, there were nearly 500,000 people of all races who voted early in Texas in 2026 who didn’t vote in the 2024 presidential race, calling it “wild.” “Almost half a million people and 49% of them are Hispanic,” Bonier said of early voters. He said in his analysis, turnout spiked among young Hispanic voters in Texas. “In the end, just most simply stated: Higher Hispanic turnout, especially among younger Hispanics, is good for Democrats,” Bonier said. Simon Rosenberg, a veteran Democratic operative who has studied Hispanic voting trends for decades, called the early numbers a sign of a historic shift. “If we wake up next week and we see this incredible performance of Hispanic voters, and Hispanic governors are elected in Texas and California — the sleeping giant will have been awoken,” Rosenberg said. “Hispanics will be asserting themselves in our political system to not only repel these terrible policies, but to put their allies into power. And Hispanics will have more actual governing power than at any point in American history as a bulwark against these kinds of policies.”