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伊朗民众在困顿中等待特朗普下一步行动Living in Limbo, Iranians Brace for Trump’s Next Move

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9月1日,购物者在德黑兰大巴扎的一处区域休息。Shoppers rest in an area at the Grand Bazaar in Tehran, on Sept. 1.

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普正纠结于是否恢复对伊朗的轰炸行动,而在伊斯兰共和国内部,一幅生活切片显示,民众处于进退维谷的境地,在困苦中挣扎、担忧战争,而经济却违背了即将崩溃的预测,顽强存续。

President Donald Trump broods over whether to resume his bombing campaign against Iran, a snapshot of life in the Islamic Republic finds its citizens in limbo, drained by hardship and fearing war while their economy defies predictions of its destruction.

德黑兰私人教练帕丽萨正准备放弃她的健身房生意,因为飙涨的租金和运营成本已使其无法维持。在伊朗首都经营一家食品生产企业的凯万表示,日子很难过,但得益于官方为战争所做的准备以及一些政府干预,经济正在存活下来。

Parisa, a personal trainer in Tehran, is preparing to abandon her gym business because surging rent and running costs have made it unviable. Keyvan, who runs a food producer in the Iranian capital, says times are tough, but the economy is surviving thanks to official preparations for the war and some government interventions.

对于伊朗与美国及以色列交战八个多月来的困境严重程度,两人看法不同,但他们在一点上达成共识。“是这种不确定性在压垮我们,”帕丽萨说。确实,民众面临的最大问题是“持续不断的不确定性,”凯万说。

They have differing takes on the severity of Iran’s predicament eight months into a war with the US and Israel, yet they agree on one thing. “It’s the uncertainty that’s crushing us,” said Parisa. Indeed, the biggest problem facing people is the “relentless uncertainty,” said Keyvan.

通胀逼近90%,且不知国家将会或不会发生什么,这让许多伊朗人陷入绝望,因无法制定计划,甚至有人说,连想一想明天都做不到。

Inflation heading toward 90% and not knowing what may or may not happen to their country is leaving many Iranians in a state of despair over their inability to make plans or, some say, to even think about the next day.

伊朗货币在今年兑美元贬值一半后,再创历史新低。在伊朗不受监管的公开市场上,1美元兑换高达270万里亚尔,这表明民众预期最坏情况将至。美国的海上封锁扼杀了贸易和关键石油出口,也切断了伊朗从港口获取原材料和基本物资的能力。

Iran’s currency has hit further record lows after losing half its value against the US dollar this year. One dollar now costing as much as 2.7 million rials on Iran’s unregulated open market, a sign that people are expecting the worst. The US’s naval blockade has strangled trade and critical oil exports as well as Iran’s ability to access raw materials and essential supplies from ports.

驾车者驶过德黑兰街头伊朗最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊的画像。摄影:瓦希德·萨莱米/美联社Motorists ride past portraits of Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei in Tehran. Photographer: Vahid Salemi/AP
德黑兰塔杰里什传统集市的购物者。Shoppers in the Tajrish Traditional Bazaar in Tehran.

帕丽萨回忆说,几分钟前她为办公室买了一个笔记本,花费1030万里亚尔——比去年同期上涨了270%。这价格约等于她在如今濒临倒闭的健身房开一节团体课的收费。

Parisa recalled how a few minutes earlier she had bought a notepad for her office for 10.3 million rials — a 270% increase on what she paid last year. That’s about the same price she charges for a single group class at her now moribund gym.

“我们刚涨过价,要是再涨,剩下的客户也得跑光了,”她说。“我们累了。我所有的朋友、身边的人都在说同样的话:要是还得打仗,要是还得谈协议,不管哪边,就早点告诉我们一声。”彭博社通过WhatsApp和Telegram与多名人士交谈。因接受外媒采访事关敏感,他们拒绝透露全名。为本文接受采访的其他人则要求匿名,理由是担心政策影响以及与西方媒体打交道面临的高度关注。

“We only just raised our prices and if we do it again, we’ll lose whatever clients we have left,” she said. “We’re exhausted. All of my friends and people around me are saying the same thing: If there’s going to be a war again or if they’re going to make a deal, just let us know sooner either way.”Bloomberg spoke with several people over WhatsApp and Telegram. They declined to give their full names because of the sensitivity of speaking to foreign media. Others interviewed for this story spoke on condition of anonymity, citing concerns over the policy and heightened scrutiny over interactions with Western-based media.

去年12月货币崩盘引发德黑兰大巴扎抗议,随即蔓延全国,演变成针对伊斯兰共和国的起义。特朗普及其战争伙伴、以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡曾呼吁抗议者推翻政权,几周后又发动空袭,击毙该国最高领袖及一批高级官员和将领。

A collapse in the currency last December triggered protests in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar that spread nationwide into an uprising against the Islamic Republic. Trump and his partner in the war, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, called on protesters to overthrow the regime before, weeks later, launching airstrikes that killed the country’s supreme leader and a raft of senior officials and generals.

随后几个月,美以对伊战争已造成3500多名伊朗人死亡,据伊朗卫生部和监测该国局势的独立人权组织统计。美以炸毁了关键基础设施,包括燃料储罐、炼油厂、石化厂、钢铁厂和桥梁。

In the months that followed, the US-Israeli war on Iran killed more than 3,500 Iranians, according to both Iran’s Health Ministry and independent human rights groups that monitor the country. The US and Israel have bombed critical infrastructure including fuel silos, refineries, petrochemical plants, steel makers and bridges.

“经济形势当然很严峻,”总部设在德黑兰的市场研究公司Ara Enterprise首席执行官赛勒斯·拉扎吉说。“但我没察觉到任何动荡迹象,因为大家都意识到我们处于战争状态,局势极其脆弱。”美军若恢复空袭,也会引发人们对类似袭击的担忧,比如南部沿海城市米纳布一所小学遭袭、造成123名儿童死亡的事件。就儿童伤亡而言,这是21世纪美军最致命的瞄准失误。

“The economic situation is, of course, dire,” said Cyrus Razzaghi, chief executive officer of Tehran-based market research company Ara Enterprise. “But I don’t detect any sign of unrest because everybody realizes we’re in a state of war and it’s a very fragile situation.”A resumption of US strikes would also raise fears of attacks like the one on an elementary school in the southern coastal city of Minab that killed 123 children. In terms of child casualties, it was the deadliest American military targeting error of the 21st century.

尽管特朗普在本周美国中期选举后再次频繁挥舞轰炸伊朗的威胁,但为避免可能引发灾难性的新一轮升级而展开的外交努力已趋强烈。卡塔尔调解人周一第二次在数天内飞抵德黑兰。一名知情外交官表示,各方正在审查关于如何结束对峙的最新提案。

While Trump has frequently dangled the bombing of Iran again after this week’s midterm elections in the US, diplomatic efforts to avert a potentially catastrophic new escalation have intensified. Qatari mediators flew to Tehran for the second time in days on Monday. One diplomat briefed on the matter said the countries are reviewing the latest proposals on how to end their standoff.

伊朗最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊支持斡旋达成协议的努力,同时也保持充分准备应对新的军事升级。“我们正努力通过对话解决问题,在这方面,最高领袖也已授予政府特定权力,”总统马苏德·佩泽希齐扬周一表示。

Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is backing efforts to broker a deal while also remaining fully prepared for fresh military escalation. “We are striving to resolve the issue through dialogue and, in this regard, the supreme leader has also granted certain powers to the government,” President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Monday.

美军战机隔夜空袭了霍尔木兹海峡的伊朗盖什姆岛,尽管华盛顿淡化了其在激化冲突的说法。

US airstrikes targeted the Iranian island of Qeshm in the Strait of Hormuz overnight, though Washington downplayed the idea it was stoking the conflict.

近几个月来,伊朗将领和官员大力宣传该国为应对美以可能发动的新一轮轰炸所做的军事准备。一直主导战场决策的伊斯兰革命卫队表示,若发生大规模美军袭击,其防御和反击战略将出现“重大变化”。

In recent months Iranian generals and officials have promoted their country’s military preparations in anticipation of fresh US or Israeli bombardments. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which has been in principal charge of battlefield decisions in the war, said there will be “significant changes” in their defense and counter-attack strategy in the event of a major US attack.

11月1日,驾车者在德黑兰市中心驶过伊朗最高领袖阿亚图拉穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊的海报。Motorists drive past a poster of Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei in central Tehran on Nov. 1.

局势依然脆弱,迄今幸存的伊朗企业只能等待。战争最初最具破坏性的阶段,以及美国财政部随后为引发伊朗金融解体所做的努力,并未导致许多人预期的经济崩溃。

As the situation remains fragile, Iranian businesses that have so far survived can do little but wait. The first, most destructive phases of the war and subsequent efforts by the US Treasury to trigger Iran’s financial disintegration, didn’t yield the economic collapse many had anticipated.

几十年来,伊朗经受住了美国反复实施的制裁周期,建立起其所谓的“抵抗经济”。虽然这种韧性经受了前所未有的考验,但该国仍能释放粮食等基本生活物资储备供民众使用。伊朗还利用地理优势——拥有十多个陆地和海上边境——以及与俄罗斯和中国的战略关系。

Iran has weathered repeated cycles of US sanctions over the decades, building what it calls a resistance economy. While that resilience has been tested like rarely before, the country was able to release reserves of essential supplies for the population such as grains and other foods. It also leaned on geography — Iran has more than a dozen land and maritime borders — and strategic relationships with Russia and China.

据农业咨询机构 ProZerno 称,从 7 月到 10 月,伊朗是俄罗斯粮食的最大买家,进口了 170 多万吨粮食,主要是大麦和玉米。政府试图通过以电子优惠券形式发放额外补贴来帮助家庭,并承诺提高优惠券面值。

From July to October, Iran was the biggest buyer of Russian grain, importing more than 1.7 million tons of mostly barley and corn, according to agriculture consultancy ProZerno. The government has tried to help families with additional subsidies in the form of electronic coupons that they’ve promised to raise in value.

基万经营一家家族企业,几代人以来一直为伊朗 9000 多万消费者的市场以及包括伊拉克和阿富汗在内的许多邻国出口市场生产食品。战争伊始,他担心因伊朗石化厂遭袭,供应链和包装材料获取会受到影响。

Keyvan runs a family business that for generations has produced food products for both Iran’s market of more than 90 million consumers and many neighboring export markets including Iraq and Afghanistan. At the start of the war he was worried about supply chains and access to packaging because of strikes on Iranian petrochemical plants.

“从经济角度看,战后很多地方关门,很多人失业,但许多人预想的那种经济崩溃并没有发生,”他说。“政府对经济和局势进行了一些良好的管理。”在工业重镇伊斯法罕,战争头几个月曾频繁遭到美国和以色列轰炸,表面上生活仍照常进行。

“From an economic perspective, after the war, a lot of places shut down, a lot of people were laid off, but that collapse of the economy that many people thought would happen didn’t happen,” he said. “There’s been some good management of the economy and the situation by the government.”In Isfahan, an industrial hub that was frequently bombed by both the US and Israel in the first months of the war, on the surface life continues as normal.

人们在伊斯法罕扎因代鲁德河畔野餐。People picnic near on the banks of the Zayandeh Rud river in Isfahan.

据一位不愿透露姓名的当地商人称,因事态敏感,穿过伊朗前首都历史中心的扎因德河两岸公园里,到处是野餐的家庭。他说,过去六个月里,他开设了零售网点和其他公共设施。过去五个月里,也有几家酒店开业。

Family picnics dot the parks that line the Zayandeh Rud river that cuts through the historic center of Iran’s former capital, according to one local businessman, who declined to give his name citing the sensitivity of the matter. He said that in past six months he’d opened retail outlets and other public facilities. Several hotels have also opened in the past few five months, he said.

“我不是说不难,是难,情况很艰难,”这位商人说。“但政府帮忙,民众互助。大家都在尽自己的一份力提供帮助。”

“I’m not saying it’s not hard, it is hard, things are tough,” the businessman said. “But the government helps, people help each other out. Everyone is trying to do their bit to help.”

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