周二，英镑兑美元和欧元均保持稳定，交易员在美中期选举前不敢大举押注，同时也在为周四英格兰银行的会议调整仓位。
Sterling held steady against both the dollar and the euro on Tuesday, with traders nervous about placing large bets ahead of the US midterm elections while also calibrating positions ahead of the Bank of England's meeting on Thursday.
中期选举正值市场紧张之际，人工智能相关股票暴跌引发投资者不安，交易员还在关注海湾局势，一位伊朗高级官员告诉路透社，伊朗与美国距离达成结束战争的协议仍相去甚远。这种不确定性使市场波动受到抑制。
The midterms come at a tense time for markets, with a slump in AI-related shares causing investor unease, while traders are also watching the situation in the Gulf where a senior Iranian official told Reuters that Iran and the US remain far from a deal to end the war. And that uncertainty kept market moves in check.
英镑兑美元报1.3414美元，持平；兑欧元报83.35便士，当日微涨，接近上周触及的18个月高位。本周英国市场的重头戏是英格兰银行会议。
The pound was flat against the dollar at $1.3414, and was at 83.35 pence per euro, a fraction firmer on the day, close to an 18-month high hit last week. , The big domestic event of the week for British markets is the Bank of England meeting. The central bank's Monetary Policy Committee is expected to raise interest rates for the first time August 2023.
预计该央行货币政策委员会将自2023年8月以来首次加息。美联储和欧洲央行已在加息，以防高昂能源成本蔓延为更广泛的通胀。
The US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank have already been raising rates in a bid to prevent high energy costs spilling over into broader inflation. "We think the balance of risks has now shifted to the point where the MPC can no longer sit on its hands," said Henry Cook, Europe economist at MUFG.
“我们认为风险天平已倾斜，货委会不能再袖手旁观，”三菱UFJ金融集团欧洲经济学家亨利·库克说。
"UK inflation, already at 3.5%, is heading materially higher, the economy has outperformed expectations, and the labour market seems to have stabilised."
“英国通胀已达3.5%，将大幅走高，经济表现超预期，劳动力市场似乎已企稳。”市场定价显示，除本周加息外，明年英央行还将加息三次，但许多分析师认为这过头了。库克预计仅在2月再加息一次。
Markets are pricing three further BoE rate rises next year in addition to a move this week, though many analysts think that is overdone. Cook expects just one more hike in February. Mark McCormick, chief FX strategist at BMO, is sceptical even of that.
蒙特利尔银行首席外汇策略师马克·麦科米克对此甚至持怀疑态度。
"This looks more like a one-and-done hike than the start of a fresh cycle ...
“这更像是一次‘加完就停’的加息，而非新一轮周期的开始……我们预计英央行将反对这种定价，而非予以确认，”他说，并认为欧洲央行加息幅度也可能小于市场当前定价。
We expect the BoE to push back against that pricing rather than validate it," he said, adding he also thinks the ECB is likely to raise rates less than markets are currently pricing.
这意味着，BMO 对英镑兑美元持谨慎态度，但仍希望卖出欧元兑英镑，“因为法国政治风险和欧元区增长疲软再次显现”。
That means BMO is cautious for the pound against the dollar but still wants to sell the euro against the pound "as French political risk and weaker euro area growth reassert themselves".