全美各地周二正在进行中期选举投票，这场选举将决定特朗普总统能否再享两年共和党统一执政的局面——或者面临民主党对其权力的潜在制衡。
Voting is underway across the country Tuesday in a midterm election that could decide whether President Trump gets two more years of unified Republican rule — or faces a potential Democratic check on his power.
为何重要：选举结果将成为特朗普第二个总统任期以来最清晰的全国性考验，此前经历了海外战争、国内经济焦虑以及华盛顿的大刀阔斧变革。面对所有这些挑战，特朗普已将自己打造成共和党争夺控制权竞选活动的门面人物。
Why it matters: The results will be the clearest national test of Trump's second presidency following war abroad, economic anxiety at home and sweeping changes in Washington. Trump, facing all these challenges, has made himself the face of the Republican campaign for control.
局势追踪：随着选民前往投票站，特朗普政府正将目光聚焦于阿拉斯加州的参议院竞选。
State of play: As voters head to the polls, the Trump administration is zeroing-in on the Alaska Senate race.
- 司法部已发出十余封“目标函”，作为其对丹·J·沙利文竞选团队调查的一部分，该团队已引起特朗普数日来的愤怒。
• The Department of Justice has sent more than a dozen target letters as part of its investigation into the Dan J. Sullivan campaign, which has been the subject of Trump's ire for several days.
- 这是特朗普政府在该竞选中寻求答案的升级举动，据报道民主党在该竞选中开展了有组织的行动，招募另一位“丹·沙利文”参选，与现任参议员丹·沙利文（共和党）同台竞技。
• It's an escalation into the Trump administration's push for answers in the race where Democrats reportedly conducted an organized effort to recruit another "Dan Sullivan" to join Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) on the ballot. The Justice Department's move
司法部的举动正值白宫在政府内部传播选举日谈话要点之际，宣扬特朗普的政绩，因为根据一些预测机构的说法，共和党正为一个可能失去众参两院控制权的艰难夜晚做准备。
comes as the White House is circulating Election Day talking points across the administration, touting Trump's accomplishments as the GOP braces for a tough evening that could see them lose both the House and the Senate, according to some forecasters.
- 特朗普在竞选途中发挥了巨大作用，在多个州为其挑选的共和党候选人举办集会造势。
• Trump has been a massive force on the campaign trail, rallying in several states for his Republican picks.
- 总统向选民声称他今年“在选票上”，使这场选举成为关于其政策和行动的公投——尽管他的民调支持率低迷，深受伊朗战争和经济焦虑拖累。
• The president has claimed to voters that he is on the ballot this year, making the election about his policies and actions — despite his dismal polling ratings, plagued by the Iran war and economic anxiety.
- 特朗普在选举日早晨花时间在社交媒体上抨击密歇根州民主党参议院提名人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德、众议员泰德·刘（民主党-加利福尼亚州）和《每日邮报》。
• Trump spent the morning of Election Day criticizing Michigan Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed, Rep. Ted Lieu (D-Calif.) and the Daily Mail in various social media posts. Zoom in:
聚焦：投票机故障和小问题周二在全国各地多处出现，其中包括备受关注的纽约众议院选区，即共和党籍众议员迈克·劳勒与民主党提名人凯特·康利之间的竞争。
Voting machine glitches and hiccups popped up in various spots of the country Tuesday, including in the high-profile New York House race between Rep. Mike Lawler (R) and Democratic nominee Cait Conley.
- 尽管华盛顿的权力平衡悬而未决，但整体气氛却相当平淡。
• Otherwise the temperature was rather low despite the power of Washington hanging in the balance.
大局：自特朗普重返白宫以来，共和党基本上给了特朗普在华盛顿自由行事的空间。民主党若控制国会任一议院，将为调查、传票甚至更严重的立法僵局打开大门。
The big picture: Republicans have largely given Trump a free hand in Washington since his return to the White House. Democratic control of even one chamber of Congress would open the door to investigations, subpoenas and even more legislative gridlock.
- 选民正在权衡伊朗战争和不断上涨的能源成本、更广泛的负担能力担忧，以及关于人工智能经济影响的日益激烈的辩论等议题。
• Voters are weighing the Iran war and rising energy costs, broader affordability concerns, and intensifying debate over AI's economic impact, among other issues.
- 空前规模的选举监督员动员以及涉及特朗普政府的法律诉讼，引发了对潜在干扰和结果受到挑战的担忧。
• An unprecedented mobilization of election monitors and legal battles involving the Trump administration have raised concerns about potential disruptions and challenges to the results.
- 特朗普表示，如果“是诚实的选举”，他将尊重选举结果。
• Trump has said he'll respect the election results if "they're honest elections."
赌注所在：共和党在选举日面临捍卫微弱的国会多数优势，在竞选最后几周，多个战场选区和传统共和党优势选区及州份已转为势均力敌的状态。
What's at stake: Republicans enter Election Day defending narrow congressional majorities, with a number of battlegrounds and traditionally GOP districts and states shifting into toss-up territory during the campaigns' final weeks.
- 众议院：所有435个席位均参与选举。民主党需要净增三个席位才能夺回多数。重新划分选区重塑了战场格局。
• The House: All 435 seats are on the ballot. Democrats need a net gain of three seats to reclaim the majority. Redistricting has reshaped the battlefield.
- 参议院：35个席位参与选举。共和党以53比47占优，其中包括两名与民主党核心小组会议的独立人士。民主党需要净增四个席位。
• The Senate: 35 seats are on the ballot. Republicans hold a 53-47 advantage, including two independents who caucus with Democrats. Democrats need a net gain of four seats.
部分情景：
Some scenarios:
- 民主党翻转众议院：他们将获得更大的调查权力、委员会控制权和支出杠杆——但特朗普保留否决权和行政权力。众议员哈基姆·杰弗里斯（民主党-纽约州）可能成为首位非裔众议院议长，或面临来自其左翼的对手。
• Democrats flip the House: They gain greater investigative power, control of committees and leverage over spending — but Trump retains his veto and executive authority. Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) could become the first Black speaker of the House, or face an opponent from his left.
- 民主党控制国会：民主党的监督权力扩大，而特朗普的议程面临重大障碍。第三次特朗普弹劾可能被提上日程，尽管在参议院审判中定罪需要三分之二的票数。
• Democrats take Congress: Democrats' oversight power expands, while Trump's agenda faces major obstacles. A third Trump impeachment could be on the table, although being convicted in a Senate trial would require a two-thirds vote.
- 共和党保持对国会的控制：特朗普和共和党领袖再获得两年时间推进其议程，尽管微弱的多数优势可能使计划复杂化。
• Republicans retain Congress: Trump and GOP leaders get another two years to advance his agenda, though narrow margins could complicate plans. Between the lines:
言外之意：除了国会控制权之外，选举结果将检验特朗普在2024年赢得的年轻、黑人和拉美裔选民的支持是否得以维持——或者这些选民是否正转回正试图为2028年重建获胜联盟的民主党一方。
Beyond control of Congress, the results will test whether Trump's gains among young, Black and Latino voters in 2024 have endured — or if those voters are moving back toward Democrats who are trying to rebuild a winning coalition for 2028.
我们正在关注：接近的竞争、未决选票和法律挑战是否会延迟出现明确的判定结果。
What we're watching: Whether close races, outstanding ballots and legal challenges delay a clear verdict.