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美联社

美联社选民民调:特朗普和共和党如何输掉2026年中期选举How Trump and Republicans lost the 2026 midterm elections, according to The AP Voter Poll

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2026年11月3日星期二,在华盛顿白宫附近的拉斐特公园,一名示威者举起横幅,游客和少数媒体人员出现在现场。(美联社照片/巴勃罗·马丁内斯·蒙西瓦伊斯)A demonstrator holds up a banner as tourists and a small number of members of the media are seen in Lafayette Park near the White House in Washington, Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)

华盛顿——据美联社选民民调(The AP Voter Poll)显示,在特朗普主导美国政治十余年后,大多数选民似乎对他感到疲惫和恼火。这项民调对全美50个州的中期选举选民进行了调查。

JOSH BOAK, HYOJIN YOO, HUMERA LODHI WASHINGTON — After more than a decade with Donald Trump at the epicenter of U.S. politics, most voters appear exhausted and exasperated by him, according to The AP Voter Poll , a survey of midterm voters in all 50 states.

总统未能兑现关键承诺——尤其是他誓言要抑制通胀,而通胀反而恶化——显然拖累了周二举行的众议院和参议院中期选举中他的同党共和党人。民调显示,选民普遍认为特朗普更关注自己的财富和镀金生活,而非选民的需求。

The president’s failure to deliver on key promises — most prominently, his vows to tame inflation, which has worsened instead — clearly weighed on his fellow Republicans in Tuesday’s midterm elections for the House and the Senate . The polling shows that voters generally saw Trump as being more focused on his own fortune and gold-leafed existence than their needs.

总统还帮助一些存在明显缺陷的候选人脱颖而出,放大了他们在本已充满挑战的年份中的困境。他在周二晚间接受福克斯新闻频道采访时表示,民主党人“奋力拼搏”,共和党基本盘“不喜欢”他背书的候选人,因为他的一些人选对他不够忠诚。

The president also helped elevate candidates with obvious flaws, amplifying their struggles in an already challenging year. He suggested in a Tuesday evening interview with Fox News Channel that Democrats “fought hard” and that the Republican base “didn’t like the candidates” he had endorsed because some of his picks were not fully loyal to him.

但民调也对民主党发出了严肃的谨慎信号。许多选民不喜欢该党——尽管民主党在经济等关键问题上占优,但其优势相对微弱。约有十分之七的选民表示,国会没有做足够的工作来对总统进行制衡,这为赢回参议院和众议院的民主党设定了标准。

But the poll also contains a serious note of caution for Democrats. Many voters dislike the party — and while Democrats hold an advantage on key issues such as the economy, their edge is relatively slim. About 7 in 10 voters said Congress is not doing enough to provide checks and balances for the president, setting the bar for Democrats who won back the Senate and the House.

共和党候选人无法躲避通胀。选民可以清楚地在杂货店和加油站的收据上看到通胀。炎热夏季过后,汽车修理或水电费带来的经济打击无处可逃。即使在得克萨斯州这样的共和党大本营,通胀造成的拖累也帮助了民主党。

It was impossible for GOP candidates to hide from inflation . Voters could see it clearly in their receipts from grocery stores and gasoline stations . The financial blow of an auto repair or a utility bill after a sweltering summer was inescapable. And even in Republican strongholds such as Texas, the drag caused by inflation helped Democrats.

大约有20%的德克萨斯州选民表示,通货膨胀给他们及其家人造成了“严重”困难——而这一群体中,大约四分之三的人支持民主党参议员候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科。另外大约有60%的选民表示,通货膨胀导致了“中等”困难,塔拉里科也赢得了这些选民中的大多数。

About 2 in 10 Texas voters said inflation had imposed “severe” hardship on them and their family — and about three-quarters of this group backed Democrat James Talarico for the Senate. An additional 6 in 10 voters, roughly, said inflation had led to “moderate” hardship, and Talarico won the majority of these voters, too.

同样的模式在一个又一个州中重复出现。在全国范围内,表示对日常开支(包括杂货、医疗和汽油)“非常担忧”的选民,压倒性多数表示他们在当地美国众议院选举中投给了民主党候选人。

That same pattern repeated in state after state. Nationally, voters who said they were “very concerned” about everyday costs — including groceries, healthcare and gas — overwhelmingly said they voted for the Democratic candidate in their local U.S. House race.

但重要的不仅仅是通货膨胀本身。全国范围内的选民将责任归咎于特朗普,原因是他的关税、他对伊朗的战争,以及两年前竞选时未能兑现的降低物价承诺。

But it wasn’t just the inflation itself that mattered. Voters nationwide pinned the blame on Trump for his tariffs , his war in Iran and his unfulfilled campaign promise two years ago to bring down prices.

被问及特朗普政策的影响时,全国大约三分之二的选民表示,这些政策使经济变得更糟。而在这一群体中,大约有80%的人表示支持民主党候选人。

Asked about the impact of Trump’s policies, about two-thirds of voters nationwide said they had made the economy worse. And out of this group, about 8 in 10 said they backed the Democratic candidate.

全国超过一半的选民表示,政府腐败对他们投票选国会议员“至关重要”。这一比例略高于表示生活成本“至关重要”的比例,这是一个引人注目的发现,因为在这一年,大约有60%的选民表示自己对食品和杂货成本“非常担忧”。

More than half of voters nationally said government corruption was “crucial” for their vote for Congress. That was a little higher than the share who said the cost of living was “crucial,” a striking finding in a year when about 6 in 10 voters said they were personally “very concerned” about the cost of food and groceries.

与此同时,尽管共和党人暗示选民不太在意特朗普去年通过模因币和加密货币赚取超过10亿美元,但大多数选民认为特朗普只顾自身利益。在其第二任期内,特朗普在令国家震惊地迅速拆除该建筑东翼之后,向有影响力的公司寻求捐款,以建造他心目中的白宫舞厅。

Meanwhile, despite Republicans’ suggestion that voters cared little about Trump making more than $1 billion last year from meme coins and cryptocurrency, most voters saw Trump as obsessed with his own interests. During his second term, Trump solicited donations from powerful companies to build his desired White House ballroom after having surprised the country by rapidly demolishing what had been the building’s East Wing .

这种在最高层定下的基调,蔓延到了他家族的商业交易,以及其助手涉及赦免和联邦政策的其他交易中。

That tenor set at the top spilled over into business deals for his family and other deals by his associates involving pardons and federal policies.

最终,约三分之二的选民表示特朗普没有把握正确的优先事项——而这些选民中,压倒性多数支持民主党众议院候选人。在过去两年多的时间里,特朗普一直独自行动。

Ultimately, about two-thirds of voters said Trump does not have the right priorities — and the overwhelming majority of these voters supported Democratic House candidates. For much of the past two years, Trump acted on his own .

共和党控制的众议院和参议院大多对他毫无异议。他解雇联邦雇员,实施广泛的新关税,发动对伊朗的战争,用金漆重新装饰华盛顿,威胁美联储、肯尼迪中心和史密森学会,并欺负一大批长期盟友。选民明确表示,他们希望国会加强监督。

Much of the Republican-controlled House and Senate barely objected to his whims. He laid off federal workers , imposed sweeping new tariffs, launched the war with Iran, remodeled Washington in gold paint, threatened the Federal Reserve , the Kennedy Center and the Smithsonian Institution and bullied a bevy of longtime allies. Voters made it clear that they want more congressional oversight.

约有十分之七的选民表示,国会没有做足够的工作来对总统进行制衡,其中包括约十分之四的共和党人。

About 7 in 10 voters said Congress was not doing enough to provide checks and balances for the presidency, including about 4 in 10 Republicans.

尽管民主党取得了胜利,选民并未对该党整体投出热情的支持票。许多选民对两党都表示沮丧:在经济、外交政策、医疗保健、税收和移民问题上,约有十分之二的选民表示“两党都不”更有能力处理这些问题。更大比例的选民表示,两党都不更擅长解决政府腐败或人工智能问题。这些持怀疑态度的选民通常投给了民主党。

Despite Democrats’ victories, voters did not deliver a ringing endorsement of the party as a whole. Many voters expressed frustration with both parties: On the economy, foreign policy, healthcare, taxes and immigration, roughly 2 in 10 voters said “neither” party was better equipped to handle these issues. An even larger share of voters said neither party would be better at addressing government corruption or artificial intelligence. Those skeptical voters generally broke for Democrats.

但这并非因为该党极受欢迎。只有约一半的选民对民主党持“比较”或“非常”正面的看法。这一比例高于约有四成选民对共和党持正面看法,但差距不大。约有十分之二支持民主党候选人的选民对该党整体持负面看法。

But it wasn’t because the party was overwhelmingly popular. Only about half of voters had a “somewhat” or “strongly” favorable view of the Democratic Party. That was higher than the approximately 4 in 10 who viewed the GOP positively, but not by much. About 2 in 10 voters who supported Democratic candidates had a negative view of the party as a whole.

相反,在关键选举中,选民似乎期望民主党候选人带来变革。例如,在缅因州,大多数表示“拥有合适经验的候选人”对其参议院决定最为重要的选民,选择了共和党现任参议员苏珊·柯林斯。但更多选民关注的是带来“必要的变革”,他们支持民主党人特洛伊·杰克逊。

Instead, in key races, voters seemed to be looking to Democratic candidates for change. In Maine, for instance, most voters who said having a candidate with “the right experience” mattered most to their Senate decision chose Republican incumbent Susan Collins. But more voters cared about bringing about “needed change,” and they favored Democrat Troy Jackson .

特朗普支持的共和党人让选民反感,这使得一些曾经稳固支持共和党的地区面临风险。

Trump endorsed Republicans who turned off voters — and that put areas that were once safely with the GOP at risk.

南卡罗来纳州参议员林赛·格雷厄姆7月去世后,总统选择了已故参议员的妹妹达琳·格雷厄姆接替其席位。新任格雷厄姆参议员随即决定参选,并在曾是其兄长强项的外交政策问题上举步维艰。

After Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina died in July, the president chose the late senator’s sister, Darline Graham, to fill his seat. The new Sen. Graham then promptly decided to seek election and struggled on foreign policy questionsthat were once her brother’s forte.

南卡罗来纳州参议院选举中,约有六成选民表示她缺乏在参议院任职的经验。

About 6 in 10 voters in the South Carolina Senate race said she lacked the experience to serve in the Senate.

在德克萨斯州共和党初选中,特朗普最终支持该州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿,而非现任参议员约翰·科宁。帕克斯顿丑闻缠身,曾被弹劾但未被定罪。约有三分之二的德克萨斯州参议院选民表示他缺乏担任参议员的品格。

During the Texas Republican primary, Trump ultimately backed the state’s attorney general, Ken Paxton , over its sitting senator, John Cornyn. Paxton was scandal-ridden and had been impeached but not convicted. About two-thirds of Texas Senate voters said he lacked the character to be a senator.

总统看重共和党候选人的忠诚度。这损害了许多州的共和党候选人。

The president prized loyalty in Republican candidates. That hurt Republican candidates in many states.

在北卡罗来纳州,如同在其他几个州一样,约有六成选民表示该州的共和党参议院候选人迈克尔·何利“对特朗普过于支持”。他们改选了民主党人、前州长罗伊·库珀进入参议院。

In North Carolina, as in several other states, about 6 in 10 voters said the state’s Republican Senate nominee, Michael Whatley, was “too supportive” of Trump. They chose former Gov. Roy Cooper , a Democrat, for the Senate instead.

美联社选民民调是由SSRS为美联社、ABC新闻、CBS新闻、CNN、福克斯新闻媒体、NBC新闻和Versant进行的美国选民调查。该调查结合了概率抽样和非概率抽样访谈,对象为全美50个州的注册选民,阿拉斯加州的调查时间为10月19日至11月3日,其他所有州的调查时间为10月22日至11月3日。详细的方法论声明可供查阅。全样本的抽样误差范围为正负0.6个百分点。

The AP Voter Poll is a survey of the American electorate conducted by SSRS for The Associated Press, ABC News, CBS News, CNN, FOX News Media, NBC News and Versant. The survey blends probability-based and non-probability-based interviews with registered voters in all 50 states conducted from Oct. 19 to Nov. 3 in Alaska and Oct. 22 to Nov. 3 in all other states. A detailed methodology statement is available. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 0.6 percentage points for the full sample.

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