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美国中期选举消除不确定性,欧洲银行股反弹European Bank Stocks Bounce Back as Midterms Ease Uncertainty

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民主党在美国中期选举中大获全胜,消除了近几周来拖累股市的部分不确定性,加之债券收益率下降也构成提振,银行股领涨欧洲股市。

Bank stocks led European markets higher as a landslide victory for Democrats in the US midterm elections removed some of the uncertainty that has weighed on stocks in recent weeks, while lower bond yields also provided a boost.

斯托克600银行指数一度上涨4.5%,有望创下5月以来最强单日表现。权重股汇丰控股和桑坦德银行对该指数上涨贡献最大,而Lion Finance Group和奥地利瑞福森国际银行涨幅最大,分别飙升5.9%和6.4%。美国银行股在盘前交易中同样走高。

The Stoxx 600 Banks Index rose as much as 4.5%, on track for its strongest day since May. Heavyweights HSBC Holdings Plc and Banco Santander SA contributed the most to the move, while Lion Finance Group Plc and Raiffeisen Bank International saw the biggest gains, surging 5.9% and 6.4%, respectively. Banking peers in the US were also higher in pre-market trading.

周三的反弹标志着欧洲银行股在选举前大幅下跌后的明显逆转。该板块已从9月初的历史高点回落,原因是美国和欧洲债券收益率大幅上升,引发了对信贷质量和违约率的担忧。该板块今年以来仍上涨11%。

Wednesday’s rally marks a pronounced U-turn after sharp declines for European bank stocks in the runup to the elections. The sector had corrected from an all-time high in early September as a sharp rise in bond yields — in both the US and Europe — raised concerns about credit quality and default rates. The sector is still up 11% year to date.

“尽管基本面强劲,银行股在中期选举前明显降低了风险敞口。随着不确定性消除,我们现在看到强劲的释然性反弹,”贝伦贝格多资产策略与研究主管乌尔里希·乌尔班表示。“这是一次‘卖传闻、买事实’的事件。”随着中期选举结果出炉,美国国债收益率下跌,投资者押注新的政治环境将抑制特朗普政府的税收和支出计划。英国、法国和意大利的债券收益率也出现下跌。

“Banks were markedly de-risked before the midterms despite strong fundamentals. With no uncertainty left, we are now seeing a strong relief rally,” said Ulrich Urbahn, head of multi-asset strategy and research at Berenberg. “It was a sell-the-rumor, buy-the-fact event.”US Treasury yields fell as the midterm results came in, with investors betting that the new political environment will provide a curb on the Trump administration’s tax and spending plans. Bond yields in the UK, France and Italy also fell.

“更宏观的看法是,如果金融条件变得不那么具有限制性、增长变得更加广泛,这对金融股是有利的,”纽约梅隆银行高级宏观策略师Geoff Yu表示。“当人们不借贷且信贷风险上升时,陡峭的收益率曲线无助于盈利能力。”

“The broader view is that if financial conditions become less restrictive and growth becomes more broad-based, that’s good for financials,” said Geoff Yu, a senior macro strategist at BNY. “A steep curve doesn’t help profitability when people are not borrowing and credit risks rise.”

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