Yinka的观点 昨晚民主党在美国中期选举中大获全胜，预示的与其说是政策转变，不如说是氛围转变。
Yinka’s view Last night’s sweeping Democratic victory in the US midterm elections heralds a shift in vibes rather than policy.
正如美国国家民主基金会非洲事务高级主任约翰·“JT”·托马谢夫斯基对我所说，在唐纳德·特朗普总统遭遇选举重挫后，国内各项优先事务争相吸引议员的注意力，非洲国家要挤上议程仍将“十分艰难”。不过，国会对其政府政策的审视空间将会更大。民主党人很可能热衷于利用听证会和调查，重新审视美国国际开发署被解散一事以及削减对外援助所造成的人力代价。
As John “JT” Tomaszewski, the National Endowment for Democracy’s senior director for Africa, told me, African countries will “still struggle” to get on the agenda because of the competing domestic priorities battling for lawmakers’ attention following a chastening electoral rebuke to President Donald Trump. There will, however, be more scope for congressional scrutiny of his administration’s policies. Democrats will likely be keen to use hearings and investigations to revisit the dismantling of USAID and the human costs of cuts to foreign assistance.
其中一些做法会受到欢迎，因为围绕政府的各项决定仍存在一些关键问题，这些问题或许理应得到公开答复。曾在小布什时期任职的官员卡梅伦·哈德森表示，这些听证会无疑会让白宫难堪，而这正是其用意所在。但我不太相信听证会的作秀会转化为美国对非政策的实质性改变。
Some of that would be welcomed because there are still key questions about the administration’s decisions that probably deserve public answers. They will certainly embarrass the White House, which is kind of the point, says Cameron Hudson, a George W. Bush-era official. But I am less convinced that the theater of hearings will translate into meaningful changes in US-Africa policy.
资深民主党人明白这一挑战。一位曾在乔·拜登任内担任美国大使的人士告诉我，他希望看到——但并不指望——民主党拿出一份更加强硬的议程，明确美非关系究竟应当是什么样子。但这位人士暗示，恢复传统发展援助在政治上已没有任何意愿：“所有人都已经翻篇了。”与此同时，非洲各国政府有更紧迫的关切。一位要求匿名的非洲大使指出，目前签证禁令和限制影响超过一半的撒哈拉以南非洲国家，并质疑华盛顿在让非洲商界领袖赴美更加困难的同时，如何还能继续推动“商业外交”。
Veteran Democrats understand this challenge. A former US ambassador under Joe Biden told me he would like to see — but doesn’t expect — a more assertive Democratic agenda setting out what the US relationship with Africa should actually look like. But, this person suggested, there isn’t any political appetite left for restoring traditional development assistance: “Everybody’s moved on from that.”Meanwhile, African governments have more immediate concerns. One African ambassador, who asked not to be identified, noted visa bans and restrictions currently affect more than half of sub-Saharan African countries, questioning how Washington can keep promoting “commercial diplomacy” while making it harder for African business leaders to travel to the US.
“美国一边说要加强与非洲的商贸往来，一边却让非洲商界领袖无法来访，这怎么说得通？”这位大使问道。
“How can the US keep talking about moving to do commerce with Africa when its business leaders can’t visit?” the ambassador asked.
华盛顿或许出现了新的氛围，但就目前而言，非洲各国政府只能根据华盛顿的行动来判断它，而不是根据民主党人对特朗普所作所为的评论。正如那位大使所说：“我们会欢迎这些变化，这样我们就能更加冷静。”值得注意的是，南非总统西里尔·拉马福萨表示，美国中期选举的结果标志着地缘政治格局的转变，这可能为比勒陀利亚与华盛顿之间紧张关系的重新调整开辟道路。
There may be a new mood in Washington, but for now, African governments will have to judge Washington by what it does, not what Democrats say about what Trump has done. As the ambassador said: “We’ll welcome the changes so we can have more soberness.”Notable South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said the outcome of the US midterm elections signals a shift in the geopolitical landscape that could open the way for a reset in Pretoria’s strained ties with Washington.