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美国的外国盟友寄望中期选举后对特朗普形成制约America's foreign allies hope for a post-midterms check on Trump

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以下是外国政府希望与新一届国会建立更多联系的一些方式。Here are some of the ways foreign governments hope to be able to get more traction with the new Congress.

深受特朗普总统全球霸凌之苦的外国政府,如今正指望民主党夺回国会控制权后,至少能获得一些喘息空间,这被视为对特朗普政府的大规模否决。

Foreign governments battered by President Donald Trump’s global bullying are hoping for at least some relief now that Democrats seized back control of Congress in what appears to be a massive repudiation of the Trump administration.

“我原本预计特朗普会遭受重创,但没想到会是这种‘电锯屠杀’式的惨败,”一位驻布鲁塞尔的欧洲外交官表示。“我们预计压力将会加剧。”外交官和外国官员表示,他们清楚民主党控制众议院和参议院仍难以对特朗普形成实质约束——特朗普打破常规、宣称对整个国家拥有主权、抛弃传统国际同盟。但他们认为,这将创造更多机会推进各自议程。

"I was expecting Trump to take a beating, but not a chainsaw massacre like this," said a European diplomat based in Brussels. "We're expecting pressure to intensify." Diplomats and foreign officials say they know Democratic control of the House and Senate still can’t do much to constrain Trump — who has shattered norms, laid claim to entire countries and abandoned traditional international alliances. But they see it creating more opportunities to push their agendas.

首要任务是:游说国会拨款委员会,协助恢复美国对乌克兰的支持,并限制特朗普的惩罚性关税。

Top of that list: pressing congressional appropriators for help restoring U.S. support for Ukraine and limiting Trump’s punitive tariffs.

“民主党人很可能想玩‘强调同盟’这张牌,以此与拒绝这样做的政府形成对比,”第二位驻华盛顿的欧洲外交官说。“所以我们将能与愿意说‘如果你们想通过某些拨款或预算,就必须在乌克兰问题上采取行动’的民主党人合作——否则决策流程不会改变。”本文采访了20位知情人士,包括驻华盛顿和各国首都的外交官、国会山议员及助手,以及熟悉相关讨论的其他人士。鉴于讨论外国政府对美外交策略的敏感性,许多人获准匿名。

“Democrats will likely want to play the game of emphasizing alliances in contrast with an administration that has refused to do so,” said a second, Washington-based, European diplomat. “So we’ll be able to work with Dems willing to say ‘We need action on Ukraine if you want to pass certain funding or budgets’ — otherwise the decision-making process doesn’t change.”POLITICO talked to 20 people for this story, including diplomats in Washington and in foreign capitals; Capitol Hill lawmakers and staff; and others familiar with discussions. Many of them were granted anonymity due to the sensitivity of discussing foreign governments’ diplomatic strategy towards the U.S.

许多外国政府希望,国会共和党人在国会山权力减弱后,可能更愿意与民主党妥协——也更愿意听取外国政府的论点。

Many foreign governments are hoping Republicans in Congress might be more amenable to compromise with Democrats — and more open to foreign governments’ arguments — once they have less power on Capitol Hill.

一些外交官表示,他们的目标更为务实,但同样重要——只是希望再次感觉到在华盛顿有几位志同道合的盟友。

Some diplomats say they have a more modest, but still important goal — just feeling like they have a few like-minded allies again in Washington.

一位亚洲外交官表示,虽然这“不会真正改变源自白宫的外交政策”,但国会民主党力量的增强“可以成为外国盟友和伙伴的道义支持来源——这很重要”,此前他们经历了两年共和党多数派的不支持态度。

While it “won’t really change foreign policy which comes out of the White House,” more Democratic power in Congress “can be a source of moral support for foreign allies and partners — and that’s important,” after two years of unsupportive encounters with the GOP majority, an Asian diplomat said.

“我们希望的是一些基本的东西——能更多地接触有影响力的立法者,”第三位欧洲外交官说。“至少我们会被听到。”这些国家的盘算凸显了受困扰的美国盟友的绝望希望:指望国会权力的转移能遏制特朗普政府的立场,尽管总统很可能仍将是一股不可预测且强大的力量。

“What we hope for is something basic — greater access to lawmakers with influence,” a third European diplomat said. “At least we’ll be heard.”These countries' calculations highlight the desperate hope among beleaguered U.S. allies that a shift in Congress can curb the Trump administration’s stances, even though the president will likely remain an unpredictable and potent force.

“特朗普是个极大的破坏者。即使是跛脚鸭,他还是特朗普,依然掌控着共和党,”第四位欧洲外交官说。他们仍将尝试。

“Trump is such a disruptor. Even as a lame duck he’s still Trump and has a hold on the GOP," a fourth European diplomat said. They’re still going to try.

当被问及在国会山的具体接触行动时,各国外交使团含糊其辞或避而不谈,许多拒绝置评,或回复了极具外交辞令的声明。英国大使馆表示,其在国会山的接触将保持均衡的两党性。

Asked about specific outreach on Capitol Hill, foreign missions were vague or circumspect, with many declining to comment or coming back with very diplomatic statements. The U.K. embassy said its Capitol Hill outreach will remain evenly bipartisan.

“我们以与国会两党就影响双边关系的议题进行接触为使命,无论哪党占据多数,”英国大使馆发邓肯·沃尔什说。以下是外国政府希望能在新国会获得更多实质进展的一些途径。

“We make it our mission to engage with both sides of the aisle on issues that impact our bilateral relationship, regardless of who holds the majority,” said Duncan Walsh, a spokesperson for the U.K. embassy. Here are some of the ways foreign governments hope to be able to get more traction with the new Congress.

大多数外国政府表示,拨款案是他们感觉最有机会真正影响白宫的领域。

Appropriations are where most foreign governments say they feel like they have the best chance of actually influencing the White House.

第二位欧洲外交官表示,他们专注于国会工作的同事计划在国会发起“大力推动”,争取民主党和共和党双方支持恢复美国对乌克兰的援助。

The second European diplomat said that their congressionally focused colleagues are planning a “big push” in Congress to drum up support among both Democrats and Republicans for a restoration of U.S. support for Ukraine.

“国会多数党中有更多对改善与俄罗斯关系过敏、且能在预算上设限的人,将是一种优势,”这位外交官表示,并以丹麦能够争取到两党支持、帮助达成最近与特朗普的协议为例,说明这是可能的。

“Having more people in Congress in the majority who’ll be allergic to closer relations with Russia and who can hold back on budgets will be an advantage,” the diplomat said, pointing to the bipartisan support Denmark was able to marshal to help land a recent deal with Trump as an example that it is possible.

众议员格雷格·斯坦顿(民主党-亚利桑那州)是众议院外交事务委员会和中国问题特设委员会成员,他表示希望拨款委员会利用这一权力,推动特朗普解除对向台湾出售140亿美元武器的延宕,并结束与伊朗的冲突。

Rep. Greg Stanton (D-Ariz.), who is on the House Foreign Affairs Committee and the China Select Committee, said he hopes the Appropriations Committee will use that power to push Trump to lift a delay on a $14 billion arms sale to Taiwan and end the conflict with Iran.

“我们拥有的第一大权力是决定资金和资源花在何处,我们可以非常有效地利用这一点,采取我认为更能反映美国优先事项的政策,”斯坦顿说。

“The number one power that we have is the ability to decide where the money and where the resources get spent, and we can use that very effectively to adopt policies that I think better reflect American priorities,” Stanton said.

如果民主党控制众议院,将出任众议院拨款委员会主席的罗莎·德劳罗(民主党-康涅狄格州)已准备好利用资金冻结手段,在伊朗问题上对特朗普施压。

Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.), who will chair the House Appropriations Committee if the new Democrat-controlled the House, is ready to use funding blocks to push back on Trump on Iran.

“当我们成为多数党时,我们将准备好动用拨款委员会的全部权力,让这届政府负责,”德劳罗说。她表示,其首要任务将是推动政府解决“特朗普总统因其自主选择的对伊朗战争而加剧”的可负担性问题。白宫拒绝回答如果民主党利用拨款权作为筹码对抗特朗普将如何应对的问题。

“When we are in the majority, we will be ready to use the full power of the Appropriations Committee to hold this administration accountable,” DeLauro said. She said her top focus would be to push the administration to address the affordability issues that “President Trump made worse with his war of choice in Iran.”The White House declined to answer a question on how it would respond if Democrats were to use their power over appropriations as leverage against Trump.

“民主党没有改善美国人生活的议程——他们唯一的议程是继续他们长达十年的针对特朗普总统的猎巫行动,”发言人劳伦·比斯说。

“Democrats have no agenda to improve the lives of Americans —their only agenda is to continue their decade-long witch hunt against President Trump,” spokesperson Lauren Bis said.

一些驻外使节和国会山人士认为,关税可能是民主党愿意花费政治资本的一个议题,因为越来越多的美国人指责特朗普的关税——特别是对加拿大进口商品征收的50%关税——导致物价上涨。

Some in embassies and on Capitol Hill see tariffs as an issue that Democrats might be willing to expend political capital on, given that growing numbers of Americans blame Trump’s tariffs— particularly the 50% levies on Canadian imports — for rising prices.

“对我们而言,问题在于贸易以及白宫挥舞关税的方式,”第二位亚洲外交官表示。“民主党推动撤销部分关税或限制总统随意加征新关税的举措,将让人松一口气。”一位资深国会助手说:“民主党‘会想把这变成一个议题,哪怕只是出于政治目的,无法带来实际的经济缓解’。”

“For us the issue is trade and the way that the White House has wielded tariffs,” said a second Asian diplomat. “Moves by the Democrats to roll back some of the tariffs or to curb the president’s ability to impose new tariffs at will would be a relief.”Democrats “will want to make it an issue even if it’s only for political purposes and can’t create economic relief,” said a senior congressional staffer.

较为乐观的外国政府希望,共和党的失利能促使共和党议员加强跨党派合作,尤其是在传统上更具两党共识的安全议题上。

The more optimistic foreign governments are hoping that the Republican defeat will spur GOP lawmakers toward more cross-aisle cooperation, especially on security issues, which have traditionally been more bipartisan.

一些资深的共和党对华鹰派——包括参议员迈克·朗兹(共和党-南达科他州)和吉姆·班克斯(共和党-印第安纳州)——已将他们曾经强烈反对向中国出口先进半导体的立场,软化为更接近特朗普的立场。他们希望这种情况能有所改变。

Some longtime Republican China hawks — including Sens. Mike Rounds(R-S.D.) and Jim Banks (R-Ind.) — softened their once-strong opposition to exports of advanced semiconductors to China to positions that align more closely to Trump’s. That might change, they hope.

“共和党议员可能会意识到,与特朗普捆绑不再是优势,”第三位亚洲外交官表示。民主党也在关注这种可能性。

“GOP lawmakers may realize that association with Trump is no longer a benefit,” a third Asian diplomat said. Democrats are also eyeing that possibility.

“涉及国家安全、国家防御、以及中国问题时,我真心希望民主党和共和党能找到一些共同立场,就是做正确的事,”众议员吉尔·托库达(民主党-夏威夷州)表示。

“When it comes to national security, when it comes to the defense of our country, when it comes to China, I would really hope that we'd be able to find some common ground between Democrats and Republicans to just do the right thing,” said Rep. Jill Tokuda (D-Hawaii).

参议院共和党已在国家安全议题上表现出一定程度的背离白宫意愿。参议员达琳·格雷厄姆(共和党-南卡罗来纳州)——已故参议员林赛·格雷厄姆的妹妹——上个月与长期批评特朗普的参议员汤姆·蒂利斯(共和党-北卡罗来纳州)一道,批评特朗普决定解除因俄乌战争而对俄罗斯实施的部分制裁。参议员苏珊·柯林斯(共和党-缅因州)和约翰·休斯特德(共和党-俄亥俄州)则敦促特朗普结束与伊朗的冲突。

The Senate GOP has already shown some willingness to break ranks with the White House on national security issues. Sen. Darline Graham (R-S.C.), sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, joined longtime Trump critic Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) last month in criticizing Trump’s decision to lift some sanctions imposed on Russia in response to its war on Ukraine. Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and John Husted (R-Ohio) have urged Trump to end the conflict with Iran.

驻华盛顿的外国使馆表示,另一项优先事项是限制特朗普在未经国会批准的情况下发动战争的能力——正如他在伊朗问题上所做的那样。虽然这有可能获得更多两党支持,但不太可能产生太大影响。

Foreign embassies in Washington say another priority is limiting Trump’s ability to wage war without congressional approval — as he has in Iran. While there’s a chance of that getting more bipartisan buy-in, it’s unlikely to have much impact.

特朗普很可能会否决国会的任何此类举措,而历任总统都曾在未经国会批准的情况下采取军事行动。此外还有一些领域,外国需要一些积极信号——以及支持声明。

Trump is likely to veto any such moves by Congress, and presidents throughout history have embarked on military action without congressional approval. Then there are the areas where foreign countries could use some positive vibes — and statements of support.

日本是少数在华盛顿设有专门国会联络团队的使团之一,预计将要求民主党议员发表声明支持东京,因为日本正努力应对中国对关键矿产的出口限制,以及北京在地区日益激进的军事存在。

Japan, one of a few Washington missions with a dedicated congressional team, is expected to ask Democratic lawmakers to put out messages of support for Tokyo as it struggles against China’s export blocks on critical minerals and Beijing’s increasingly aggressive regional military footprint.

日本驻华盛顿大使馆前政治事务特别助理巽由纪表示,日本政府希望民主党比共和党更有力地“展示国会对美日同盟的支持”。她补充说,这可能包括“两党决议,立即反击妖魔化日本的中国叙事”。日本大使馆未回复置评请求。

The Japanese government will want Democrats to “show congressional support for the U.S.-Japan alliance” more forcefully than Republicans have done, said Yuki Tatsumi, former special assistant for political affairs at the Japanese embassy in Washington. That’s likely to include “bipartisan resolutions to immediately counter Chinese narratives” that demonize Japan, she added. The Japanese embassy didn’t respond to requests for comment.

民主党人也在考虑一些目前可能无法通过、但可为特朗普总统任期于2029年1月结束后奠定基础的立法。

Democrats also are thinking about legislation that may not succeed now, but which could lay the groundwork for after Trump’s presidency ends in January 2029.

贝拉表示:“触手可及、能相当快完成的事,是重申美国政策不将军售作为与中国谈判的筹码——即重申美国关于维持台海现状的长期政策。”

“Low-hanging fruit that you could do fairly quickly is to reestablish that it is not U.S. policy to use arms sales as a negotiating tactic with China — so reassert long-standing U.S. policy on the status quo with Taiwan,” Bera said.

也就是说,目前或未来几个月在国会山游说的欧洲政府可能会发现,民主党控制国会也会带来新问题。

That said, European governments lobbying on the Hill now or in the coming months may find that a Democratic takeover of Congress also brings new problems.

一些将于1月离任的议员,包括美国参议员珍妮·沙欣(民主党-新罕布什尔州)和汤姆·蒂利斯(共和党-北卡罗来纳州),属于一代对跨大西洋关系有坚定信念并支持乌克兰的政治家,米奇·麦康奈尔(共和党-肯塔基州)和迈克尔·麦考尔(共和党-得克萨斯州)也是如此。

Some lawmakers leaving office in January, including U.S. Senators Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) and Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), were of a generation with strong transatlantic convictions and supporters of Ukraine, as were Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and Michael McCaul (R-TX).

“新一批进来的人对欧洲的兴趣要小得多,”第五位欧洲外交官说。

“The new cohort coming in is much less interested in Europe,” a fifth European diplomat said.

欧洲人正带着一些不安关注民主党的进步派,因为年轻选民越来越多地质疑战后跨大西洋外交政策共识的支柱,从对以色列的支持到海外军事干预。许多人希望华盛顿在世界事务中扮演一个不那么强势的角色。

Europeans are watching the Democrats’ progressive wing with some unease, as younger voters increasingly question pillars of the postwar transatlantic foreign-policy consensus, from support for Israel to military intervention abroad. Many want Washington to take a less muscular role in world affairs.

还有风险是,特朗普在其政党在中期选举中遭受重创后,因挫败感而变得更难谈判——或推行破坏稳定的外交政策举措。

And then there’s the risk that Trump will become harder to negotiate with — or pursue destabilizing foreign policy initiatives — out of frustration after his party got pummeled in the midterms.

“他越弱,在国内和外交政策上可能变得越危险,”保守派政治评论员查理·赛克斯说。

“The weaker he gets, the more dangerous he can become, both domestically and in foreign policy,” conservative political commentator Charlie Sykes said.

特朗普威胁要阻挠他反对的国会民主党多数派的任何倡议,造成立法层面的堑壕战,使民主党和共和党的议程都陷入停滞。

Trump has threatened to block any initiatives by the Democratic majority in Congress that he opposes, creating the possibility of legislative trench warfare that stalls the agendas of Democrats and Republicans alike.

一些外交官担心,特朗普可能会对共和党的中期选举失利做出反应,通过针对伊朗或古巴的军事示强来发泄。特朗普在伊朗问题上曾威胁过这一点。“失去众议院或参议院可能会让特朗普变得更加失控,”第三位欧洲外交官说。

Some diplomats worry that Trump may react to the GOP’s midterm losses with a military power flex targeted at Iran or Cuba. Trump has threatened as much on Iran“There’s a chance that a loss of the House or Senate will make Trump even more unhinged,” the third European diplomat said.

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